Energy in the BRICS

Renewables to eclipse fossil fuels for half of the world's population

Fossil capacity is set to drop below half of the power capacity mix in the BRICS bloc for the first time ever this year, signaling an important milestone in the clean energy transition for countries that still host the vast majority of the world’s coal power.

Data for this report comes from GEM’s Global Integrated Power Tracker (GIPT), an online multi-sector dataset of power stations and facilities worldwide. The tracker provides unit-level information on thermal power (coal, oil, gas, nuclear, geothermal, bioenergy) and renewables (solar, wind, hydro). The tracker includes data on unit capacity, status, ownership, fuel type, start year, retirement date, geolocation, and more.

Brazil, Russia, India and China founded the “BRICS” group of emerging economies in 2009, and expanded membership to South Africa in 2010, and earlier this year to the United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia, and Egypt. These countries play a major role in energy and climate diplomacy and together represent 46% of the world population, 38% of GDP, and 48% of carbon dioxide emissions.

Key Findings

• The share of power capacity in the BRICS group fueled by coal, oil, and gas could fall below 50% by the end of this year. The fossil dominance of power capacity in the BRICS has fallen in recent years and is currently close to 50%. The crossover for the bloc is imminent, as non-fossil capacity additions to mid-year already outnumber coal, oil, and gas plant projects slated for commissioning in 2024. While most BRICS countries show a declining trend in their fossil share, China leads the group, with its fossil-fueled capacity share falling twice the amount of other BRICS countries over the last five years.
• Wind and utility-scale solar capacity in development outnumber power projects fueled by coal, oil, and gas by two to one in the BRICS. These two technologies, together with distributed solar PV, which GEM data do not cover, are set to contribute the greatest non-fossil capacity additions in the BRICS. Although this vast pipeline is significantly buoyed by China, wind and utility-scale capacity in development also outnumbers the figure for fossil-fueled power projects in five other BRICS members.
• Despite fossil-fueled power capacity losing ground in the BRICS’ power mix, virtually all members are building additional coal, oil, or gas plants. GEM data shows all BRICS group countries, save Ethiopia, with fossil-fueled power projects in development. If built, in-development fossil-fueled projects would increase operating coal and oil/gas capacity in the BRICS groups by 36% and 53%, respectively.
• BRICS countries have enough renewables projects in development to nearly triple capacity by 2030. Although the BRICS group has no collective endorsement of the global goal of tripling renewables capacity by 2030, China's recent record wind and solar capacity additions and several members' ambitious clean energy plans put a three times scale-up within reach. If the 326 GW of wind and utility-scale solar capacity additions in 2023 continued to 2030, the BRICS group would see total renewable capacity increase by more than 2.5 times. Furthermore, the sum of the BRICS' in-development renewables projects due for completion by 2030 is 2,276 GW or around 95% of the additional utility-scale renewable capacity estimated as necessary to achieve the global tripling target.

The groups’ growing role in energy and climate diplomacy within and beyond the bloc is underscored by several host nation roles for the annual UN climate summit and G20 presidency. At the same time, additional invitees to the bloc, including Saudi Arabia, present the possibility for BRICS to merge the interests of leading oil and gas producers (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Russia, Iran) with those of leading coal producers (China, India, Russia, South Africa), in effect creating a new force on the international diplomatic stage with deeply vested interests in continued fossil production.

With close to half the world's electrical power capacity and nearly half of its fossil-fueled capacity, the power sector represents the blocs' greatest source of energy-related CO2 emissions. Power demand growth in the BRICS has averaged 5% per year in the last decade, roughly double the global average. Ahead of the annual BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, in October 2024, this report seeks to provide a timely summary of the state of power sector transition in the nine BRICS countries. The report’s analysis draws upon GEM’s trackers for coal, gas, oil, hydropower, utility-scale solar, wind, nuclear, bioenergy, and geothermal, housed within the Global Integrated Power Tracker (GIPT). For a detailed analysis of each BRICS nation, see dedicated country profile sections: Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates (available in the downloadable PDF). See dedicated summary tables for summaries of GEM's power sector data for BRICS countries.

BRICS countries make up half of the world's power capacity

Existing power capacity across all technologies in BRICS group countries totals 4.2 terawatts (TW), or just under half of the global total (9.0 TW). The capacity mix across the bloc is diverse, spanning all eight power sectors covered by GEM trackers, including the two fossil sources in coal and oil and gas, as well as six non-fossil sources, including solar, wind, hydropower, nuclear, bioenergy, and geothermal. Despite the diverse sourcing of electricity across the BRICS, each member relies heavily on a single source.

The dominant source in six BRICS group countries is fossil-powered, underscoring the importance of phasing out incumbent power sources for energy transition.

With over 70% of BRICS total power capacity, it’s hard to understate the significance of China within the bloc. China’s heavy reliance on coal, together with sizable shares in India, South Africa and Russia, see the BRICS countries accounting for an outsized share of the global coal fleet, some 70% of global operating coal capacity. Amongst the top ten coal producers globally, these four BRICS countries account for 99% of operating coal capacity across the bloc, some 1,469 GW. Coal has the largest share of total power capacity in three of these countries: China 41%, India 51% and South Africa 70%.

Oil and gas plants are less prominent across the group, making up 22% of the global total oil/gas plant capacity. However, this technology is an important power source for certain members, constituting the majority of operating power capacity in four BRICS countries: Russia 47%, Egypt 89%, Iran 84%, and United Arab Emirates 77%. Together these four countries account for 60% of operating oil and gas plant capacity across the BRICS group and are all amongst the top ten oil and gas producers globally. While oil and gas plants feature less prominently in the overall capacity mix of China (5% of total), the total installed capacity is the greatest amongst the BRICS (145 GW).

Hydropower is the dominant power source in Brazil and Ethiopia, accounting for 49% and 87% of total capacity, respectively. The relative abundance of rainfall in western Ethiopia coincides with the highland terrain, which creates considerable hydropower potential for conventional storage technologies. Brazil’s much larger hydropower base likewise capitalizes on abundant rainfall and favorable geography, with run-of-river technologies also used on high-flow-rate rivers (notably the Madeira, São Francisco, and Paraná). China, India, and Russia also have sizable hydropower sectors, though the share of the power mix in each country is more modest, at between 10 and 20%.

Although the BRICS group of nations also host sizable operating fleets of other power technologies, none reach the shares of dominant power sources. For example, Brazil has the most bioenergy power capacity of any country in the world outside of China, but the share of total installed capacity is less than 10%. China is building nearly half of the world’s new nuclear power plants and will overtake France within the next few years to hold the world’s second-largest nuclear fleet. Yet, nuclear power would still struggle to reach a double-digit share of China’s total installed power capacity.

The urgent task of phasing out dominant fossil sources from the power mix is even more stark when accounting for the generally lower capacity factors of leading renewable technologies such as wind and solar. China is a case in point, where the total installed capacity of wind and solar capacity now equals that of coal capacity. Yet, coal generation in China is over four times greater¹ than that of wind and solar combined.

BRICS' wind and utility-scale solar capacity in development is double coal, oil, and gas

Across the BRICS group, in-development wind and utility-scale solar projects — those that have been announced or are in the pre-construction and construction phases — total 1,550 GW, or roughly double the figure for fossil-fueled capacity, and half of the total in-development capacity across all technologies. Adding in-development hydropower to the wind and utility solar figure sees the capacity for in-development fossil-fueled projects in the BRICS outnumbered by nearly three to one.

Across BRICS group countries, utility-scale solar is the leading technology for capacity in development, with 814 GW. Over 99% of this capacity comprises solar photovoltaic (PV) technologies (as opposed to solar thermal), and 70% is located in China. Naturally, the larger solar market in China corresponds with a greater proportion of the in-development figure for utility-scale solar. However, Brazil and Egypt also host sizable pipelines of in-development utility-scale solar capacity, which are ten times the level of existing operating capacity in each county.

Wind follows utility-scale solar closely with 744 GW of capacity in development across the bloc, 67% of which is located in China. Offshore wind technologies make up 27% of the in-development figure, with 67% of this segment located in Brazil and 31% in China. This strong showing for Brazil, with more in-development offshore wind capacity than any other country globally, reflects the country’s vast coastline, ample wind resources, and shallow nearshore — however, uncertainty surrounding the regulatory framework for offshore wind risks stalling the buildout.

Hydropower also shows a large volume of in-development projects, some 708 GW, of which 66% is pumped storage. China and India make up 94% of in-development hydropower capacity and 99% of the pumped-storage segment. Both China and India increasingly require options for energy storage to facilitate the integration of massive wind and solar additions and ensure grid stability.

China and India together make up 82% of nuclear power plant projects in development. China alone has 118 GW of capacity in development stages, which puts the country not only first worldwide for this metric, but also surpasses the second through eighth place countries combined.

Plans for new bioenergy plants are limited compared to other technologies, with almost all in-development capacity within China and Brazil (92%). These two countries rank first and third for installed bioenergy capacity globally in 2023. Bioenergy plants in China are powered mainly by municipal waste and agricultural residues. Brazil’s primary bioenergy fuel for power is bagasse — the biomass that remains from the crushing of sugarcane — for which Brazil is the world's largest producer.

Only Ethiopia is pursuing plans for new geothermal plants, with 550 MW capacity in development. Currently, the country has a single, now defunct, geothermal plant. Still, it aspires to mirror the success of neighboring Kenya, which has tapped the Eastern African Rift for over 900 MW of geothermal capacity.

The considerable pipeline of non-fossil power projects is a positive sign and, if built, will help erode the existing fossil majority used for electricity generation. However, the amount of fossil capacity in development within the BRICS is still vast in scale, with global ramifications for the energy transition.

For coal, China and India alone account for 86% of the global in-development number and 98% within the BRICS. For oil and gas power projects, BRICS’ share of the global in-development number is lower, at one-third. However, all BRICS countries other than Ethiopia and India have capacity in development. If built, in-development fossil-fueled projects would increase operating coal and oil/gas capacity in the BRICS groups by 36% and 53%, respectively.

Ultimately, the size of the in-development tranche for each technology and the proportion reaching the construction phase will determine which technology wins out.

BRICS' non-fossil fueled capacity under construction exceeds that of coal, oil, and gas

All BRICS countries are building fossil-fueled power capacity, with 287 GW capacity currently in the construction phase across the group. However, the non-fossil-fueled capacity under construction is more than double this figure, at 629 GW. For comparison, the ratio of non fossil to fossil capacity under construction in both the G7 and EU is three to one. A weighting towards non-fossil capacity additions has also been observed historically in the BRICS group, with the share of fossil-powered technologies in total power capacity falling from a peak value of around 70% in 2007 to 50% last year.² Should all power projects in the BRICS group get built, the fossil-powered share would drop below 50% for the first time.

This crossover may take place this year. GEM data show 72 GW of fossil capacity in the BRICS group slated for commissioning in 2024 and a further 88 GW without a known target start date, totalling 158 GW. However, non-fossil capacity additions to mid-2024 already exceed this amount, totalling 190 GW in China, India, and Brazil alone.³ As year-end capacity statistics are collected, it is likely that the non-fossil share becomes the majority. For comparison, the European Union reached 50% non-fossil share at the start of the 2010s, and the G7 hit parity last year.

Within the bloc, the balance between fossil and non-fossil capacity varies. However, the fossil component rarely shows signs of increasing. In hydropower-dominated Brazil and Ethiopia, robust wind and solar PV growth over the past decade has pushed Brazil’s non-fossil share close to 90%, while no known coal, oil, or gas prospects in Ethiopia will maintain the near 100% non-fossil powered electricity system.

China’s non-fossil contribution to the power capacity mix surpassed 50% in 2023, with massive wind and solar additions propelling this share 20 percentage points in a little over five years. Despite the unrivaled volume of fossil-powered projects under construction in China, there are hints of an impending slowdown in coal capacity additions. The country drastically reduced approvals for new coal power in the first half of 2024, granting permission to only twelve projects totaling 9.1 GW, equivalent to just 8% of the permitted amount in all of 2023. However, this slowdown in permitting may take time to work through the pipeline, and construction activities remain robust due to the substantial arrears of new coal capacity permitted in previous years. Nevertheless, accelerating non-fossil capacity additions, particularly from wind and solar, will continue to edge out coal’s share.

South Africa and Egypt complete this set of five BRICS countries building more non-fossil capacity than fossil. However, the absolute amount of non-fossil capacity under construction is modest compared to the total installed capacity, and the additions would change little of the current dominance of fossil power in these two countries.

GEM data for India, Iran, Russia, and the United Arab Emirates all see fossil-powered capacity in construction exceeding non-fossil. However, factoring in distributed solar PV additions in India, which GEM data does not cover, would likely see the non-fossil segment prevail in this country. This non-fossil surplus would help keep coal’s share of total power capacity below 50% (a threshold passed mid 2024 for the first time since the 1960s). However, it may not be sufficient to realize the Indian Government’s target of a 50% share of non-fossil capacity in the power mix by 2030, particularly given the recent spree of coal permitting.

In Russia and the UAE, coal, oil, and gas plants planning retirement within the next 2–3 years would tip the balance in favor of non-fossil capacity additions. While net capacity additions would alter little of Russia’s current two-thirds share of fossil fuels in the power mix, a faster pace of change is occurring in the UAE. In little over half a decade, the UAE has gone from close to zero to around a 25% non-fossil share of capacity, propelled in large part by the phased commissioning of all four units at the Barakah nuclear power plant and completion of several multi-gigawatt solar plants, including Al Dhafra solar farm, the world’s largest single-phase installation. Only Iran remains with a surplus of fossil-powered capacity additions according to GEM’s construction project data, virtually all of which are gas plants using domestically produced fuel supply.

Total renewable capacity in the BRICS would more than double if annual renewable additions seen in 2023 continued to 2030

The target to triple total global renewables⁴ capacity by 2030, agreed at COP28, is considered the single most important lever for reducing emissions and keeping the 1.5 degree-aligned pathway alive. Despite attracting support from more than 130 countries worldwide to date, the only signatories from the BRICS group are Brazil, Ethiopia, and the UAE. However, before COP28, a similar tripling target expressed in the G20 Leaders’ Declaration, which excluded calls for coal phasedown, did attract support from China and India. China subsequently reiterated its commitment to the tripling goal along with the United States in the “Sunnylands Statement.” Furthermore, the climate and energy plans of India, South Africa, and Egypt all envisage renewable capacity that is close to or exceeding three times the current level. Thus, the role of most BRICS group countries in the global tripling goal is implicit despite no formal support across the bloc.

Getting to triple the level of renewables by 2030 globally — or around 11,000 GW — would require a year-on-year growth rate of around 16%, with annual additions rising from around 600 GW in 2024 to 1,500 GW in 2030. Assuming the same 16% growth rate for the BRICS group countries over this period, total renewable installations would reach 5,430 GW in 2030, with annual additions increasing from 308 GW in 2024 to 749 GW in 2030. Although global tripling does not imply all countries increase renewables three-fold, this level of scale-up is consistent with analyses from the IEA, Climate Analytics, and the University of California, Berkeley, which all show 2030 renewables capacity in major BRICS group countries of three to three-and-a-half times 2022 levels.

Record capacity additions saw the BRICS’ renewables fleet grow by 331 GW in 2023. This level of annual capacity additions is similar to the amount consistent with tripling for the coming years, estimated at 308 GW in 2024 and 357 GW in 2025 for BRICS group countries. Most of the recent capacity additions in BRICS group countries are from wind and solar PV technologies, making up 98% of the 2023 capacity additions or 326 GW. If annual wind and solar additions were to continue at this rate for the next seven years out to 2030, the BRICS’ renewables fleet would grow to 4,200 GW of installed capacity, or 77% of the tripling value for the bloc.

GEM data tracks 2,276 GW of renewable capacity in development across BRICS group countries. This in-development figure is over 60% of the additional renewable capacity required between 2024 and 2030, consistent with tripling renewables (3,510 GW).⁵ As GEM data do not cover the distributed solar PV segment of renewable capacity, the 2,276 GW of BRICS renewable capacity in development likely accounts for a larger share of additional renewable capacity required by 2030. Assuming distributed solar PV would cover around one-third of the total additional renewables capacity by 2030, the 2,276 GW of in-development renewables in the BRICS is closer to 95% of the additional capacity required by 2030 for tripling when excluding distributed solar (2,400 GW).

To reach the vast renewable capacity buildout implied in the tripling target, pre-construction and announced projects must be built. Yet, only a quarter of the total in-development figure is currently under construction (572 GW) in the BRICS region. Furthermore, China accounts for an outsized share of this construction tranche, some 90% of the BRICS total. Although the sheer size of the power sector in China implies the country will dominate the share of under-construction projects in the BRICS countries, the country is also building at a higher rate, with 32% of renewable projects in the construction phase compared to 8% among the other BRICS countries. Increasing this construction rate and continually growing the in-development pipeline is vital to all BRICS members contributing to the global goal of tripling renewables.

As all countries start from very different levels of installed renewable capacity, precisely tripling the sum of capacity across all renewable sources may not be desirable or feasible. However, this does not rule out rapid scale-up in other renewable sources. For instance, Brazil would not feasibly triple its 100 GW hydropower base by 2030. However, the country has ambitious plans for non-hydropower renewables, notably the second- and third-largest in-development pipeline globally for solar and wind, respectively. Like- wise, Ethiopia currently sources virtually all electricity from hydropower. Yet, GEM data show in-development wind and hydropower projects double the current installed capacity. By contrast, Russia and Iran have comparatively small amounts of in-development renewable projects, with just 300 MW of wind and solar projects in construction between them. That said, both countries host significant wind and solar resources and ambition for these technologies should far exceed the modest levels of existing installations and in-development projects.

The BRICS bloc is at a watershed moment. The clean energy transition really is happening everywhere. Still BRICSs are some of the only countries in the world planning new coal projects, which would undermine the impressive progress to date in cleaning up their energy systems.

James Norman, Project Manager for the Global Integrated Power Tracker at Global Energy Monitor

Explore below to find out how much power capacity is in development across BRICs countries, sorted by energy source and project status.