Today, the  Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air and Global Energy Monitor have published their H1 2025 coal power review that reveals a boom in commissioned coal projects, while new and revived proposals are the highest in a decade, both upward trends after some signs of cooling in 2024.

In H1 2025,  21 gigawatts (GW) of coal power were commissioned, the highest amount in the first half of the year since 2016, with projections for the full year exceeding 80 GW. This increase in commissions follows on the tail of the 2022-2023 coal power permitting surge that saw two new coal projects permitted per week, on average, totalling more than 100 GW of coal power approved per year. This trend will likely continue into 2026 and 2027, unless policy action is taken.

Although only 25 GW were permitted in H1 2025, new and revived projects came to 75 GW in H1 2025, the highest in a decade, and construction starts and restarts reached 46 GW, equivalent to the entire coal power capacity of South Korea. 

This rush of activity signals possible pressure from the industry to expand coal projects as a last ditch effort before China’s 2030 carbon peaking deadline, right when strategic phase-down should be the priority to meet climate goals and as clean energy is meeting all of new power demand growth.

In June 2025, coal’s share in power generation dropped to a nine-year low of 51%, and only made up 34% of China’s total installed capacity, while renewables accounted for 60%, pointing to the ongoing trend of coal losing steam while an artificial push attempts to expand rather than phase down its historic role.

Although China pledged in 2022 that coal should play a flexible, supporting role while renewables are integrated, this policy has yet to be implemented in any meaningful way. Further reform and incentives are needed to transition into scaling down coal power generation and planning a coal exit strategy: in H1 2025, only 1 GW of coal power was retired. 13 GW need to be retired by the end of 2025 to meet the 14th Five-Year Plan goal of retiring 30 GW by the end of 2025. 

With the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and 15th Five-Year Plan on the horizon, China has a critical opportunity to set binding targets and initiate policy reform that could confirm China’s role as a global leader in the energy transition.

Qi Qin, lead author of the report and China Analyst at CREA: “China’s clean energy boom is driving both economic growth and decarbonisation, but continued coal expansion risks holding it back. More coal power plants would not only waste investment, but also crowd out renewables–the real engine of China’s economic future. To ensure energy security and sustained economic growth, the priority now must be to build a more flexible power system, stop adding new coal power, and set a clear path for coal’s decline.”

Coal power development in China in the first half of 2025 shows no sign of easing, leaving emissions on a high plateau and stranding coal in the system for years to come. To ensure meeting its carbon peaking deadline by the end of the 15th Five-Year Plan period, China must immediately commit to a set of strong policies to phase down coal power development and shut down high-emission and low-efficiency coal units.

Christine Shearer, Research Analyst at Global Energy Monitor

The post Coal is losing ground, but not letting go: Structural inertia and the struggle to shift coal’s role in China’s power system appeared first on Global Energy Monitor.

Despite this reality, an estimated 2,270 Mtpa of new coal mining capacity remains under development. If brought online, this capacity, which represents a quarter of 2024 global production (8,770 Mtpa), could emit an estimated 15.7 million tonnes of methane per year, or around 1.3 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e) using a 20-year Global Warming Potential (GWP). This would surpass the total annual greenhouse gas emissions of Japan, one of the world’s top ten emitters, which stood at 1.18 billion tonnes in 2022. 

Based on Global Energy Monitor’s (GEM) global survey of active coal mine proposals, key 2024 trends in new coal mine planning include:

• Over 850 new mine plans, mine expansions, and mine extension projects¹ are currently announced or under development worldwide, amounting to 2,270 Mtpa of new capacity. Nearly half of this amount (1,113 Mtpa) is in the early stages of planning and is therefore vulnerable to cancellation. 744 Mtpa is already under construction or in test operation,² while the remaining 414 Mtpa has been approved.
• China, India, Australia, and Russia comprise nearly 90% (1,942 Mtpa) of all proposed mine developments. China alone has 1,350 Mtpa in development — more than all other countries combined.
• In 2024, China saw relatively low levels of both newly-approved coal capacity (57 Mtpa) and new operational capacity coming online (87 Mtpa). However, China still has 1,350 Mtpa of proposed coal capacity at various stages of development. Of this amount, 39% is already under construction or in test operation, 14% has been approved, and the remaining 47% is in early planning, awaiting approval.
• Thermal coal operation plans still dominate, accounting for 75% (1,690 Mtpa) of global proposed mine capacity. However, the opposite is true when zooming in to North America, where metallurgical coal for steelmaking accounts for over 70% of proposed capacity.  
• Three-quarters of mine proposals are “greenfield” developments (1,696 Mtpa), signaling the coal industry’s willingness to break ground on new mines that tend to lock in more long-term production. New mines also lock in more future emissions than existing “brownfield” mines, as well as a higher risk of stranded assets.
• If fully developed, proposed coal mines would emit an estimated 15.7 million tonnes (Mt) of methane annually. Of this, 744 Mtpa of late-stage projects already under construction and in test operation would account for 6 Mt of methane emissions that are effectively locked in. Without strong mitigation measures, proposed coal mining capacity would keep methane emissions well above net-zero targets. 
• Underground mines account for half of all proposed capacity (1,153 Mtpa), but nearly 80% of projected methane emissions. Proposed underground mines are expected to emit 13 Mt/yr, compared to 2.6 Mt/yr from surface mines.

Global overview

Although the rapid expansion of renewable energy over the past decade has helped reduce coal dependence in some countries, it has not kept pace with the surging electricity demand in several major coal-producing nations, such as China, India, and Indonesia, especially in the post-COVID-19 years when global coal production reached record highs. 

During the power shortages of 2021, coal became the immediate fallback solution due to its ease of extraction and stockpiling. This also contributed to the rebound in coal mine operations that year, following two years of slowdown largely triggered by pandemic-related lockdowns and temporary mine closures.

However, in 2024, the amount of production capacity that came online at newly-operating mines hit its lowest level since at least 2015, the year the Paris Agreement was adopted. The 105 Mtpa of added production capacity was over 100 Mtpa below the annual average (206.5 Mtpa) for the 2015 to 2024 period. This decline is largely attributed to top coal-producing countries India and China, however, it doesn’t necessarily signal a sustained downward trend in both countries’ coal expansion plans. Rather, the slowdown likely reflects delays in expansion approvals, the inherently lengthy nature of coal mine development phases, and a potential easing of supply-demand pressure following the pandemic-fueled surge in capacity additions over the previous two years.

Figure 1

Given the substantial amount of proposed capacity still under development, the current downward trend may be at risk of reversing in the coming year.

According to GEM’s latest coal mine data, global coal production capacity has reached at least 8.9 billion tonnes, sufficient to support the record-high output of 8.77 billion tonnes in 2024. Nevertheless, at least 2,270 Mtpa of additional coal mining capacity remains under various stages of development, with a strong focus on the Asia-Pacific region. Developers are pursuing 850 new mines, mine expansions, and mine recommission projects across 30 countries. In addition, 35 mine extension projects are also under consideration.

Figure 2

Nearly 90% of this proposed capacity is located within just a few countries. China leads by a wide margin, accounting for 1,350 Mtpa of proposed capacity, with most projects concentrated in the country’s north and northwest. India follows with 329 Mtpa, nearly half of which is being developed by state-owned Coal India. Australia ranks third with 165 Mtpa, while Russia and South Africa also host significant developments, at approximately 98 Mtpa and 73 Mtpa, respectively.

Map 1

Figure 3

North America has 45 coal mine projects in development, totaling 32 Mtpa, with Canada accounting for two-thirds of this amount, and the U.S. for the remaining one third (11 Mtpa). In the U.S., the current administration’s promotion of so-called “beautiful, clean coal” adds uncertainty to the region’s trajectory toward phasing out coal in the coming years.

Europe has 28 Mtpa of proposed coal mining capacity, with most new coal developments (26 Mtpa) concentrated in Central and Eastern Europe, particularly in non-EU countries like Serbia and Bosnia-Herzegovina.

Indonesia leads Southeast Asia’s coal expansion with 31 Mtpa of new capacity under development, driven by rising domestic demand and thermal coal exports. In South Asia, Pakistan and Bangladesh are advancing coal projects tied to power generation. Beyond Asia, coal development is modest in Central Asia and Latin America, with Kazakhstan leading in Central Asia and Colombia home to all active coal projects in Latin America.

Among the proposed projects, approximately three-fourths — representing around 1,696 Mtpa of capacity — are “greenfield” or brand new developments. This highlights the coal industry’s continued push to open new mines. Once developed, greenfield projects tend to lock in long-term future emissions, with an average reported mine life of approximately 54 years longer than that of brownfield projects (31 years), according to GEM’s latest coal mine data. These new developments also carry a higher risk of becoming stranded assets if coal demand declines or prices fall, potentially rendering them uneconomical and leading to idling or abandonment.

Country / Regional analysis

China

As of April 2025, China maintained a total of 1,350 Mtpa of proposed coal mine projects (including expansions), accounting for 60% of the global proposed capacity. This amount surpasses the combined operating coal capacity of Indonesia and Australia, the world’s third- and fourth-largest coal producers.

Over one-third (39%) of China’s proposed capacity is already under construction or in test operation, while 14% has been approved, and nearly half (47%) remains in the early stages of planning or development.

Proposed projects are primarily concentrated in five provinces and autonomous regions — Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Xinjiang, Guizhou, and Shanxi — accounting for 89% of the total proposed capacity. Inner Mongolia stands out as the leading province in proposed coal mine development, with approximately 41% of its total project capacity already under construction or in test operation.

Figure 4

China’s coal mine capacity approvals peaked in 2019 after the 2016 launch of its de-capacity policy, then declined sharply through 2020–2021, hitting a multi-year low of 32 Mtpa in 2021. However, following the power shortage crisis in the second half of 2021, China responded by rapidly expanding existing production capacity and accelerating approvals of new and expanded mines. As a result, approvals surged in 2022, reaching 90 Mtpa of capacity — nearly triple that of 2021. However, as coal supply shortages eased, this rapid expansion gradually lost momentum, with the total approved capacity dropping to 57 Mtpa in 2024, a 33% decline from 2023 and the lowest in three years. In 2024, China commissioned 87 Mtpa of new coal mine capacity, representing a 38% year-on-year decline and marking the lowest level in the past decade.

While this may suggest a downward trend in new operational capacity, it remains too early to confirm such a shift. Given that coal mine construction typically takes 3–5 years, the 2024 decline may instead reflect the lagging effect of fewer approvals in 2020 and 2021. By this same respect, the large volume of projects (233 Mtpa) approved during 2022–2024 is likely to be commissioned in the coming years, potentially contributing to a new wave of capacity growth.

Figure 5

More crucially, the development of proposed projects continues to receive policy support in China. China unveiled a plan in 2024 to establish a coal capacity reserve system by 2027, which aims to enhance energy security by ensuring more flexible coal supply. This indicates that additional capacity will likely be brought under development, since the plan involves approving a batch of coal mines specifically designated for reserve purposes. By 2030, the country aims to establish approximately 300 Mtpa of dispatchable reserve capacity.³

For these reserve coal mines, 60% or more of their new capacity is exempt from the standard capacity replacement requirement (coal enterprises must retire outdated or inefficient coal production capacity before gaining approval to develop new, more advanced coal mines) established in 2016 for capacity reduction. According to some estimates, the net increase in newly-built capacity by 2030 is expected to reach up to 1.3 billion tons, or the equivalent of roughly one-quarter of China’s 2024 total coal output, because of this policy support.

The National Energy Administration’s 2025 Energy Work Guidance calls for approval of a new batch of large-scale, modern coal mines and acceleration of construction for already approved projects. 

For example, Inner Mongolia, which leads in renewable energy development, also holds the largest volume of proposed coal mining capacity and has reportedly accelerated coal mine construction in 2025. Approximately 31.5 Mt of capacity is currently in the test operation phase, while another 8.6 Mt is expected to complete construction by the end of the year. Additionally, eight projects that fall under the coal capacity reserve system category have been approved, with a total production capacity of 92 Mtpa, including a reserve capacity of 16.4 Mtpa.

China’s coal production has grown for four consecutive years since the 2021 power crisis. In 2024, domestic coal output reached 4,780 Mt, up 1.2% year-on-year, while coal imports rose 14.4% to 542.7 Mt. The combination of robust domestic production and growing imports has shifted China’s coal supply from tight to relatively abundant.

Although coal consumption reached 4,890 Mt in 2024 — a 1.7% increase — the growth rate has slowed over the past three years, and data from the first quarter of 2025 also indicates an overall downward trend.

Among China’s four major coal-consuming industries (power generation, steel production, construction materials manufacturing, and chemicals manufacturing), the power sector consumed 2,870 Mt of coal in 2024, marking a 1.2% year-on-year increase. However, with the rapid expansion of renewable energy, demand for coal in this sector is expected to decline gradually in the future. The production of steel and cement faces overcapacity and declining demand in 2024. However, coal consumption in the coal-to-chemicals sector reached 319 Mt in 2024, representing a 7% year-over-year increase. Although its share remains insignificant relative to other key sectors of coal demand, future annual growth is projected to stay in the 5%–10% range, making it the only sector among the four major coal-consuming industries expected to continue growing.

Among the proposed projects, 47% (635 Mt) remained unapproved and is still in the planning or early project stages. If these plans are not significantly rolled back in the forthcoming 15th Five-Year Plan⁴ (2026–2030), China could see a new wave of coal capacity coming online, potentially leading to another round of overcapacity similar to that experienced during 2012–2015.

India

India ranks a distant second globally in proposed coal mining capacity, with 329 Mtpa currently under development. Of this, 163 Mtpa remains in the early planning stage, approximately 90 Mtpa has been permitted, and 75 Mtpa is already under construction. The pipeline is geographically concentrated in four states, with Jharkhand (106 Mtpa), Odisha (92 Mtpa), Chhattisgarh (50 Mtpa), and Madhya Pradesh (44 Mtpa) accounting for nearly 90% of the total proposed capacity of the country.

Figure 6

India’s coal sector is dominated by state-owned enterprises (SOEs), which are responsible for approximately 72% (238 Mtpa) of the proposed mining capacity. Coal India alone accounts for 139 Mtpa, making it the leading player in India’s coal expansion. Other SOEs include Singareni Collieries (16 Mtpa) and lignite-focused NLC India Ltd (26 Mtpa).

Private developers are also playing a significant role, planning 92 Mtpa of additional proposed capacity. The Adani Group, India’s largest privately-owned coal developer and the country’s leading mine developer and operator (MDO), holds 28 Mtpa. Vedanta Ltd follows with 18 Mtpa, making it the second-largest private coal mining company with proposed capacity in development within the country.

Coal production in India has risen steadily, reaching a record 1,048 Mt in FY 2024–25. This growth is expected to continue as the government pushes to boost domestic output, aiming to reduce import reliance and allegedly improve energy security. The government targets 1.3 billion tonnes of coal production by FY 2027 and 1.5 billion tonnes by 2030. To support this goal, India plans to open 100 new coal mines, adding 500 Mtpa in capacity by 2030. Over 80 Mtpa is expected to come online in FY 2025–26, suggesting that already permitted or under-construction projects could be fast-tracked.

Coal continues to be a cornerstone of India’s economy, powering critical sectors such as electricity, steel, and cement. However, domestic reserves of metallurgical or coking coal and high-grade thermal coal are limited, making imports, especially for steelmaking, essential. At present, metallurgical coal accounts for only about 3% of the country’s proposed coal mining capacity.

To address this gap, the Ministry of Coal has launched Mission Coking Coal, aiming to increase domestic coking coal production to 149 Mt by FY 2029–30. This is expected to spur a wave of new metallurgical coal projects in the future.

Meanwhile, underground mining, which currently makes up less than 10% of India’s coal production, is also a focus area. The government has set a target to produce 100 Mt from underground mines by 2030 to boost overall domestic coal supply. Yet, current proposals only include about 20 Mtpa (6% of the pipeline), indicating that additional underground projects could be added to the pipeline in the future.

The government’s latest Action Plan also highlights “unlocking the value of discontinued mines” as a key strategy for meeting short-term goals. In June 2024, Coal India announced plans to reopen over 30 previously uneconomic mines, 27 of which have already been awarded through tenders. This initiative is expected to contribute significantly to near-term production increases.

Australia and New Zealand

Australia ranks third after China and India in terms of proposed coal mining capacity under development, accounting for roughly 7% of global proposals, with a total of 165 Mtpa in various stages. Of this total, 96 Mtpa has already received approval and is under construction, while the remaining 70 Mtpa is still in the early planning phase. As with its current coal production, the bulk of proposed capacity is concentrated in Queensland and New South Wales, two major coal-producing states in Australia which host approximately 124 Mtpa and 41 Mtpa of proposed capacity, respectively.

Australia is the world’s leading exporter of metallurgical coal, with about 89% of its metallurgical coal product exported in 2022–2023. The country now accounts for roughly one-third (58 Mtpa) of the world’s proposed metallurgical coal mining capacity, most of which is clustered in Queensland. China, once a top buyer of Australian coal, lifted its import restrictions in early 2023. However, Mongolia emerged as China’s second-largest source of metallurgical coal in 2024, reducing China’s reliance on Australian exports. Although Australia still supplies over half of India’s metallurgical or coking coal imports, India plans to ramp up domestic production and acquire overseas assets as part of its “Mission Coking Coal,” potentially diminishing future demand for Australian imports. This creates a risk that early-stage metallurgical coal projects in Australia may be shelved or cancelled due to declining international demand.

On the domestic front, coal use in power generation — which accounts for about 88% of Australia’s total coal consumption — has been declining in recent years. Nonetheless, significant thermal coal capacity remains in the pipeline, with 85 Mtpa in proposed thermal coal projects and an additional 15 Mtpa in mixed thermal-metallurgical projects. This comes despite Australia signing a call for no new coal plants in national climate plans at COP29 and appearing on track to significantly reduce coal use. The country already has sufficient existing thermal capacity of 230 Mtpa, while coal consumption in 2023 totaled only 1.5 exajoules (approximately 62.5 Mt), a figure that reflects the ongoing shift away from coal in electricity generation, largely driven by a rapid increase in solar energy production. In light of these factors, many of the proposed thermal coal projects may face a risk of becoming stranded assets. 

Although New Zealand has no new coal mining capacity proposed, coal development has not come to a halt. Instead, there are around six proposals to extend the lifespan of existing operations, all submitted by the country’s leading coal producer, Bathurst Resources. This includes the Stockton Coal Mine, New Zealand’s largest mine, which is set to expire in March 2027 but could continue producing coking coal for another 25 years if the extension is approved.

Russia

Russia has approximately 98 Mtpa of proposed coal mining capacity, ranking fourth globally. This includes 30 Mtpa already under construction and another 15 Mtpa undergoing test operations prior to entering full commercial production. An additional 23 Mtpa has received permits and risks advancing to the construction phase, while the remaining 30 Mtpa is still in early planning.

Geographically, nearly half of this proposed capacity is concentrated in three key federal subjects — Kemerovo, Sakha (Yakutia), and Krasnoyarsk — which align with Russia’s major coal basins. The Amur and Novosibirsk regions each account for around 10 Mtpa of proposed development.

Around half of Russia’s coal production is exported, now primarily to eastern markets, following the European Union’s ban on Russian coal imports in response to the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Although Russian coal exports have declined in recent years, driven by sanctions and efforts among key buyers to diversify supply and strengthen domestic production, there is little indication that Russia is slowing its coal mine development. On the contrary, the country’s coal sector is aiming to boost annual production to over 600 Mt by 2050, up from the current 440 Mt, and to secure a quarter of the global coal market by increasing coal exports to 350 Mt by 2050. This is a significant increase from the export levels of less than 200 Mt in 2024, as outlined in the Russian Federation’s Energy Strategy to 2050. Achieving these ambitions will largely depend on the exploration and expansion of new coal mining clusters.

South Africa and the African continent

Africa is home to 5% (121 Mtpa) of the world’s proposed coal mine capacity. Nearly two-thirds (73 Mtpa) of this amount is concentrated in South Africa, with the remaining planned capacity located in Mozambique (34 Mtpa), Botswana (9 Mtpa), Tanzania (4 Mtpa), and Niger (1 Mtpa).  

South Africa has 35 proposed coal mines with a projected output of 73 Mtpa, ranking fifth globally, just behind Russia, in proposed coal capacity. Of these 35 projects, 21 are planned for the Mpumalanga province, which is already responsible for 83% of South Africa’s coal production. Six of the remaining fourteen projects are located in KwaZulu-Natal; five are in Limpopo; two are in Gautang; and one is planned for the Free State. Nearly 80% of South Africa’s proposals are for thermal coal, which is largely used for domestic power generation.  

Mozambique’s 34 Mtpa of proposed coal capacity is roughly triple its actual 2023 coal production (11 Mt). If all of this capacity were to come online, it would represent one of the largest percent shifts in national output worldwide. The bulk of this capacity consists of the 12-Mtpa multi-phase expansion of the Benga coal mine and the 8-Mtpa expansion of its Chirodzi coal mine, both owned by India-based Jindal Steel. In recent years, Mozambique — whose primary export is coal — has strived to attract foreign investment to develop its vast natural resources, including coal, in the hopes that the move will facilitate the country’s economic independence.

All of Botswana’s 9 Mtpa of coal capacity is currently under construction with plans to come online in the next 1–2 years.

The planned coal mining capacity in Tanzania is for two coal projects, one of which is a joint venture project between the Tanzanian government and China’s Sichuan Hongda to supply coal to the Mchuchuma power station. In Niger, the 1 Mtpa Salkadamna coal mine is planned as a companion mine to the proposed Salkadamna coal plant, whose plans have stalled for over a decade. 

While GEM is also tracking a few planned coal mining projects in Eswatini, Madagascar, and Zimbabwe, the details of each, including coal capacity, are at present unclear.

North America

North America has 45 mine projects in development, amounting to 32 Mtpa of proposed new capacity. Two-thirds of this proposed capacity (21 Mtpa) is concentrated in Canada. While Australia is the world’s leading producer of metallurgical coal, North America is leading the shift from thermal to met coal production, as evidenced by the fact that met proposals in the U.S. and Canada now outweigh those for thermal operations by 68% and 77%, respectively.

In 2024, U.S. coal production continued its decades-long decline, falling to 512 million short tonnes as competition from gas and renewables in the electric power generation arena has increased. U.S. coal prices have been declining too, falling to 2021 levels at the close of the year. As a result, many coal producers are hesitant about scaling up too quickly. This is reflected by the fact that only 11 Mtpa of coal capacity is planned, with most located in West Virginia.

In addition to being modest with their mine proposals, another way U.S. coal companies are attempting to weather this coal slump is by lowering costs. For example, through their recent merger, Arch Resources and CONSOL Energy aim to shave off as much as US$140 million in annual operational costs.

It’s still too early to tell how the second term of the Trump administration will impact U.S. coal’s downward trend. The U.S. government has declared a national energy emergency and intends to boost America’s fossil fuel production. In an effort to push this new “pro-coal” sentiment, the U.S. government has made several goodwill gestures to coal companies, including approving the decades-long proposed expansions of the Spring Creek mine and Bull Mountains mine in Montana, and expediting the environmental permitting process of new coal projects. However, as of May 2025⁵, few coal producers have made public-facing changes to their 2025 strategic plans. This suggests a lingering hesitancy about continued poor market conditions and economic uncertainty caused by the Trump administration’s shifting tariff and trade policies, which could prove detrimental to the coal export market.

Meanwhile, U.S. producers attempt to continue protecting themselves by increasing investments in new metallurgical mines. All but two proposed mines are planned by top metallurgical coal companies Ramaco Resources, Coronado, Alpha Metallurgical, and Warrior Met. This trend is expected to continue in 2025, especially given the recent designation of metallurgical coal as a “critical material” by the U.S. Energy Department.

Similarly, Canadian operators have readily embraced a supposed revival of metallurgical production, which is not affected by shifts in power generation. As of 2024, 77% (17 Mtpa) of Canada’s proposed coal mines are metallurgical projects, most located in British Columbia where the coal fields are rich in coking coal.

While some companies are turning to metallurgical coal during the clean energy shift, others are taking the opportunity to divest from coal altogether. In 2024, Vancouver-based Teck Resources, which was once the largest metallurgical coal producer in North America, finalized the sale of its metallurgical coal assets to Glencore. This comes despite Glencore’s renewed pledge to its 2050 net-zero emissions goal.

Europe

Europe’s combined 28 Mtpa of proposed coal capacity ranks it among the regions with the most modest proposed coal mining capacity globally. Coal production continued to plummet in Europe, with several countries, including the UK and Slovakia, completing their coal phaseout plans, and mine operators facing declining demand from power companies due to competition from wind, solar, and gas.

As of October 2024, the UK has successfully phased out coal power generation, becoming the world’s first major economy, and the sixth country, to eliminate coal from its power grid. Despite no longer using coal for power generation, the UK still has three mine proposals in consideration whose coal would be used for steelworks — the under 1 Mtpa expansion of the Aberpergwm Coal Mine, the 1.2 Mtpa Lochinvar coal mine, and Energy Recovery Investments’ controversial project to extract so-called “reclaimed” coal from coal tips at the retired Bedwas Colliery.

Elsewhere across Europe, coal has proven more difficult to dislodge. As of 2024, the Western Balkans has ten coal mine projects, amounting to 20 Mtpa of new mine capacity, with half in early phase developments and the other half under construction. Serbia, which has five new mine proposals amounting to 15 Mtpa, leads the coal expansion. It is followed by Bosnia-Herzgovina (3.5 Mtpa) and North Macedonia (1 Mtpa), which have two new mine proposals each, and Montenegro (under 1 Mtpa). Romania (5 Mtpa) is the only country within the European Union proposing new coal. And in Ukraine, the 1 Mtpa Novovolynskaya No 10 coal mine, whose construction began decades ago, remains planned but stalled.

Neither Germany nor Poland have any coal mining capacity in the pipeline, which aligns with each country’s 2038 and 2049 respective coal phaseout targets (though both timelines are widely seen as needing to be brought forward to meet climate commitments).

Other Asian countries

Outside of China and India, approximately 135 Mt of proposed coal mining capacity is in the pipeline across twelve Asian countries, with Pakistan and Indonesia together accounting for more than half of this total.

Figure 7

Southeast Asia’s coal development pipeline is led by Indonesia, which currently has 15 Mtpa of coal mining capacity under construction and an additional 16 Mtpa in early-stage planning. Indonesia’s coal production has grown steadily in recent years, rising from 564 Mt in 2020 to 836 Mt in 2024. This increase has been driven by expanding domestic power demand and surging imports from countries like China, India, and other regional buyers. At present, Indonesia is developing at least 31 Mtpa of new coal mining capacity, 94% of which is thermal coal aimed at supplying both domestic power generation and international markets. Additionally, more than 40 proposed coal mine projects remain at very early stages and lack reported capacity data.

The country’s coal resources are heavily concentrated on Kalimantan Island, particularly across the provinces of South, East, Central, West, and North Kalimantan. This region accounts for over 80% of Indonesia’s coal output and hosts more than half of the proposed capacity (approximately 20 Mtpa), with South and East Kalimantan leading in project scale.

Roughly 84% of Indonesia’s known coal reserves are low- to medium-grade thermal coal primarily used for power generation, making the country the leading thermal coal exporter in the world. However, the country is also a metallurgical coal importer, sourcing coking coal mainly from Russia, Australia, and China. While nearly all proposed mining capacity is focused on thermal coal, the Indonesian government has recently ramped up exploration efforts to identify new coking coal deposits and reduce its reliance on imports.

With China and India purchasing nearly two-thirds of Indonesia’s coal exports in 2023, the country’s coal mining sector faces significant exposure to the risk of uneconomic and stranded assets. This vulnerability became apparent in early 2025, when Indonesia’s thermal coal exports fell to a three-year low between January and April, driven by reduced demand from both countries as they’ve taken efforts to boost domestic production to lower import dependence.

Beyond Indonesia, the Philippines holds 8 Mtpa of proposed coal mining capacity in Southeast Asia, all of which remains in early-stage development without permits. 

Pakistan ranks second in South Asia, after India, with approximately 38 Mtpa of coal mining capacity under development. Most of these proposed projects are tied to coal demand from the power sector. For example, the Thar Block VI open-pit project is planned in two phases: Phase 1 includes the development of 7.9 Mtpa of capacity alongside a 1,320 megawatt (MW) mine-mouth power plant, while Phase 2 involves expanding the mine by an additional 8.1 Mtpa to support a coal gasification and coal-to-liquid facility operating in parallel with the power plant. At Thar Block II, Phase III is in the pipeline, targeting an additional 3.8 Mtpa to supplement the existing 7.6 Mtpa of operational capacity. This expansion has already been permitted. In a 2024 interview, the company of Thar Block II has confirmed that Phase IV is under planning, with the long-term goal of increasing total production at Thar Block II to approximately 30 Mtpa.

Bangladesh currently has a very small coal production capacity, less than 1 Mtpa, yet it ranks third in South Asia in terms of proposed coal mining capacity, with around 10 Mtpa under development. Coal plays a relatively minor role in the country’s energy mix compared with other energy sources like gas, oil, and biofuels, accounting for just 5.5% of total energy supply. At present, only one coal mine, the Barapukuria Coal Mine, is operational, with a production capacity of 0.9 Mtpa.

Since 2020, Bangladesh has begun importing coal to fuel the Payra power station, and coal consumption is projected to rise through 2030 in the government’s 2023 Integrated Energy and Power Master Plan. Developing new domestic coal mines is seen as a strategy to reduce reliance on imported coal and ensure a stable local supply. Additionally, as the country transitions away from traditional biomass — still a major energy source — toward fossil fuels like coal, this may further justify plans for expanding mining capacity.

However, all currently proposed coal mines remain in the early planning phase. Bangladesh pledged at COP26 in 2021 to aim for up to 40% clean energy in its power generation mix by 2041. If this target is reached ahead of schedule, national coal demand could peak and begin to decline earlier than expected, potentially rendering much of the proposed mining capacity unnecessary.

Coal development is also active in Central Asia, with Kazakhstan leading the region at approximately 17 Mt of proposed coal mining capacity, nearly 60% of which is nearing completion. As one of the top ten countries with the largest proven coal reserves, Kazakhstan is proposing new coal-fired power plant construction which would boost domestic demand for coal. At the same time, it is seeking to diversify coal exports abroad; currently, about one-third of Kazakhstan’s coal is exported, primarily to Russia, the EU, and Asian markets.

Meanwhile, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan collectively have 11 Mt of proposed capacity, though most projects remain in early, unpermitted stages.

Latin America

Latin America accounts for a mere 0.5% (12 Mtpa) of proposed global coal mining capacity. Only one country, Colombia, is home to all coal mine projects currently under development.

Colombia’s three largest coal mine projects currently under consideration include the San Juan mine (with an estimated average annual production of up to 10.5 Mtpa), the Cañaverales Coal mine (up to 0.8 Mtpa), and the Papayal mine (up to 0.9 Mtpa) — all owned by Turkish multinational firm, Yildirim, through its Colombian subsidiary Best Coal Company. While transparency issues continue to surround Yildirim’s plans for the mines, their coal is expected to be imported to Türkiye for power generation.

2024 marked the second anniversary since Brazil’s proposed Guaíba mine was shelved. Had the 5 Mtpa mine been approved and built by private coal mining company Copelmi Mineração, it would have been inundated by over 28 inches (700 mm) of rain which fell across the Porto Alegre region during the 2024 Southern Brazil floods. This near miss is a stark reminder of coal’s cascading environmental impacts beyond the release of heat-trapping greenhouse gases.

Mine proposals: Lock in of future coal mine methane emissions

A projected 15.7 Mt of methane emissions per year could be released if all globally proposed coal mining projects are developed.⁶ This is equivalent to roughly 1.3 billion tonnes of CO₂e using a 20-year Global Warming Potential — exceeding Japan’s total annual greenhouse gas emissions, which stood at 1.18 billion tonnes in 2022. Should all this capacity become operational, global coal mine methane emissions could rise by approximately 39% over the IEA’s latest estimate of 40.3 Mt, and by approximately 26% compared to GEM’s latest estimate of 58.9 Mt from currently operating mines — an estimate that does not account for any mitigation measures.

Without robust abatement, emissions from new coal mines would compound the already significant methane emissions from existing mines. Altogether, these emissions would add up to over 6 billion tonnes of CO₂e (20-year GWP), comparable to the annual greenhouse gas emissions of the United States, the world’s second-largest emitter at 6.02 billion tonnes in 2022.

Figure 8

Currently, over 850 new coal mines or mine expansions of varying capacities are under development worldwide. Of these, 296 projects are under construction and expected to become operational within the next few years, while 28 mines are in the test operation phase and likely to start full production within a year. Together, these late-stage developments represent a total of 744 Mtpa in new capacity and are projected to emit around 6 Mt of methane annually, once operational. 

An additional 186 projects, representing approximately 414 Mtpa of coal mining capacity, have already received permits. These permitted projects, currently in the interim phase of development, are expected to generate 2.9 Mt of methane annually unless halted or abandoned. 

The remaining 1,113 Mtpa of coal mining capacity, linked to estimated methane emissions of at least 6.9 Mt/yr, remains in early development stages, including announcement, exploration, and pre-permitting. These projects are particularly susceptible to delays, or may ultimately be shelved or canceled altogether, depending on shifts in coal demand as well as economic, environmental, social, and climate risks across different countries.

Figure 9

China is the source of the largest projected increase in global coal mine methane emissions, accounting for 80% of estimated emissions from proposed projects worldwide. The country has 456 proposed coal mines under development, totaling approximately 1,350 Mtpa in planned capacity. If fully realized, these projects could emit an additional 12.6 Mt of methane annually, according to GEM estimates. With nearly 40% of this capacity already under construction or in test operation, about 5 Mt of new emissions per year may be effectively locked in.

Australia follows, with 58 proposed projects, totaling 165 Mtpa, that could add up to 0.8 Mt of methane per year. Of this amount, 14 Mtpa is currently under construction, locking in an estimated 0.1 Mt/yr, while another 82 Mtpa has been permitted and could contribute 0.4 Mt annually, if developed.

Russia ranks third, with 36 proposed coal mines totaling 98 Mtpa and the potential to release 0.6 Mt of methane annually. Projects already in advanced stages account for 0.2 Mt/yr, with an additional 0.2 Mt/yr likely from 23 Mtpa of permitted capacity. Combined, China, Australia, and Russia account for nearly 90% of the projected methane emissions from proposed coal mine developments worldwide. 

India ranks fourth in projected methane emissions from proposed coal mining capacity, with an estimated 0.43 Mt of methane emitted annually, nearly 90% of which comes from identified thermal coal projects. With the government aiming for a significant expansion of domestic coal production, particularly from underground and metallurgical coal mines by 2030, methane emissions are likely to increase further in the absence of effective abatement measures.

From a coal grade perspective, proposed thermal coal mines, primarily intended for power generation, are projected to release approximately 11.5 Mt of methane annually. In contrast, proposed metallurgical coal mines, which serve steelmaking and other industrial processes, are expected to emit around 1.7 Mt, based on GEM’s analysis of proposals with identified coal grade information. While the overall emissions from metallurgical projects appear smaller due to a much smaller number of mines and total capacity, they tend to be significantly more methane-intensive on a per mine basis. On average, metallurgical coal mines emit 2.5 times more methane than thermal mines of comparable size. This is largely because metallurgical projects are often deep underground operations targeting higher-rank coal types such as bituminous and anthracite, where methane concentrations increase with depth.

Figure 10

China, without doubt, dominates emissions across all coal grades, largely due to its unmatched volume of proposed coal mining capacity across various coal ranks. Outside of China, Australia is the second-largest emitter from proposed coal projects, with over two-thirds of its projected emissions coming from metallurgical coal capacity. Russia and Canada follow as the next largest emitters from metallurgical coal proposals.

From a coal mine type perspective, underground mines are typically more methane-intensive than surface mines. Proposed underground coal mine projects are projected to emit approximately 13 Mt of methane annually, compared to 2.6 Mt/yr from surface mine projects. China hosts the largest share of proposed underground coal mining capacity, accounting for 88%. While Australia has a much smaller share compared with China, it still ranks second with 4% of total projected emissions from underground proposals.

Although projected emissions from proposed surface mines are generally lower than those from underground mines, this does not make them any less significant. GEM’s analysis finds that several proposed surface mines with large production capacities could emit more methane annually than many underground mines. A notable example includes the Changtan Surface Coal Mine in China. If developed, this project could emit between 5.3–14.6 Mt CO₂e (based on 100-year and 20-year GWPs) per year, placing it among the largest methane-emitting coal mines in the world.

Emissions from surface or open-pit coal mining have often been overlooked due to their comparatively smaller share. However, aircraft-based measurements have shown that methane emissions from a major open-pit coal mine in Australia were three to eight times higher than reported. Without sufficient attention and more direct measurement data, methane emissions from surface mines risk becoming the overlooked “elephant in the room” in global coal mine methane accounting.

How proposals impact global emissions targets

Greenhouse gas emissions have reached an all-time high, making the scale of required reductions even more daunting. With a substantial volume of coal mining capacity still in the development pipeline, moving forward with these projects would only move progress further away from achieving global climate targets.

According to the United Nations Environment Programme’s (UNEP’s) Production Gap Report 2023, achieving the 1.5°C target under the low demand (IMP-LD) scenario requires a massive 75% reduction in coal production by 2030 compared to 2020, meaning global output would need to drop from about 7,607 Mt in 2020 to just 1,902 Mt — or roughly 571 Mt per year — by 2030. However, with global coal production having reached 8,770 Mt in 2024, the required cuts have doubled to about 1,144 Mt per year in order to remain aligned with the 1.5°C target (see Figure 11, dark-green line).

In comparison, the IEA Net Zero Emissions (NZE) scenario offers a more gradual approach, projecting a 39% reduction in coal production from 2020 levels, down to roughly 4,640 Mt by 2030. Yet even this slower pathway, which originally required an average reduction of about 297 Mt per year, now demands cuts of 688 Mt per year (Figure 11, light-green line).

However, if all 2,270 Mtpa of proposed coal mining capacity (Figure 11, dark-red bars) is developed and brought online at a steady rate through 2030 (averaging 378 Mtpa annually) — even after accounting for production at mines slated for closure or expected to deplete their recoverable reserves before 2030 (totaling 837 Mtpa) — the gap between current production trends and what’s required to achieve climate targets will widen further. This scenario would necessitate even more aggressive cuts, requiring annual retirements of coal mining capacity to not only match but exceed the pace of new additions in order to stay on track for the 1.5°C target under both the UNEP and IEA NZE scenarios.

Figure 11

From an emissions perspective, the IEA’s NZE scenario calls for methane emissions from coal production to be cut by around 75% from today’s levels by 2030 — dropping from 40.3 Mt in 2024 to just 10 Mt by 2030. This requires an average annual reduction of approximately 5 Mt, totaling about 30 Mt over the next five years to stay on track for the NZE target. With annual methane emissions still showing no downward trend, and the time frame narrowing, the path to achieving this goal is becoming increasingly precarious.

If all 2,270 Mtpa of proposed coal mining capacity is developed and brought online at a steady rate through 2030, over 15 Mt of additional methane emissions are projected each year (see Figure 12, dark-red bars). Without strong mitigation measures, these new projects would further jeopardize progress toward net zero.

Figure 12

The IEA’s updated Net Zero Roadmap, which charts a path to limiting global warming to 1.5°C by 2050, calls for no new coal mines or mine extensions under the NZE scenario. Developing new greenfield coal projects risks not only creating stranded assets, but also locking in costly, long-term emissions. Rather than expanding production capacity or extending the lifespan of existing (“brownfield”) mines, these sites should be evaluated for potential conversion to renewable energy use, such as solar power projects.

Out of the 30 countries with coal mining capacity still under development, 21 are signatories to the Global Methane Pledge. Together, these countries’ proposed projects are expected to emit nearly 2 Mt of methane annually. Yet, to date, only a limited number of countries and regions have submitted detailed methane action plans. If countries are truly committed to meeting their climate targets, the solution is not to pursue further coal mine development with uncertain mitigation measures but to halt new projects entirely. The most effective strategy forward remains clear: Leave coal in the ground.

¹ Extension projects refer to existing mines seeking to prolong their lifespan by mining new areas without increasing current production rates. 

²In China, “test operation” denotes the phase prior to commercial launch in which the mine completes construction, commissions equipment, conducts safety and operational checks, and initiates limited production to ensure readiness for full-scale output. This process is also observed in Russia and Kazakhstan.

³Coal production reserve mines adopt a “base + reserve” dual-capacity system, with reserve capacity accounting for 20%–30% of total output. Under normal conditions, only base capacity operates, while reserve capacity can be quickly activated during emergencies.

⁴China’s Five-Year Plan is a national economic and development blueprint released every five years outlining major policy goals and priorities.

⁵The May version of the GCMT dataset was updated in July, featuring major revisions to the “Parent Company” column, which now reflects GEM’s latest ownership format and includes associated Entity IDs for parent companies (excluding Chinese companies), along with other minor changes. Please visit the download page for the updated version.

⁶For further detail on estimating methane emissions from coal mines, visit GEM’s methodological wiki page.

About the Global Coal Mine Tracker

The Global Coal Mine Tracker is a worldwide dataset of coal mines and proposed projects. The tracker provides asset-level details on ownership structure, development stage and status, coal type, capacity, production, workforce size, reserves and resources, methane emissions, geolocation, and over 30 other categories. 

The most recent release of this data in May 2025 includes operating mines producing 1 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) or more, with smaller mines included at discretion. The tracker also includes proposed coal mines and mine expansions with various designed capacities.

Media Contact

Dorothy Mei

Project Manager, Global Coal Mine Tracker

dorothy.mei@globalenergymonitor.org

The post Still digging 2025: Tracking global coal mine proposals appeared first on Global Energy Monitor.

On May 21, the government of Honduras announced that it was joining the Powering Past Coal Alliance (PPCA), a coalition of governments and others committed to transitioning away from coal – with the most prominent member being the UK, which retired its last coal plant in 2024. The entry of Honduras into the PPCA implies a cancellation of its last coal plant proposal, the 0.1 GW Puente Alto Energy power station, which has not seen any notable developments since its announcement in 2022. 

Similarly, Brazil’s last active coal plant proposal – the 0.6 GW Pedra Altas power station – was considered shelved in GEM’s Q1 2025 update as there has been no movement on the plant’s licensing since August 2023, when the plant’s Risk Management Program and Emergency Response Plan were rejected by Brazil’s environmental authority, IBAMA. There are also no new coal plants proposed in Brazil’s national energy auctions this year, with a decrease in coal power generation projected through 2034 in the country’s most recent ten year energy plan.

The shelving of Latin America’s last two coal plant projects marks a broader decline in coal power development across the region. No coal plant proposals in Latin America have advanced in the permitting process since 2019, nor has any new construction begun since 2016. 

The one coal plant still under construction in the region, Argentina’s long-delayed Río Turbio power station, remains mired in technical difficulties, cost overruns, and allegations of corruption. 

The Latin America region is also nearly on track to meet the 1.5°C target of the Paris Climate Agreement, which requires a global phaseout of unabated coal power by 2040, according to the IEA’s Net Zero scenario. Based on planned retirements and phaseout commitments, over 60% (10 GW) of the region’s 16.3 GW of operating coal power capacity is scheduled to come offline by 2040.

Remaining coal plants without a retirement date are concentrated in Mexico (4 GW), the Dominican Republic (1.1 GW), and Brazil (0.6 GW). Both Mexico and the Dominican Republic are PPCA members, but have yet to set a coal phaseout date.

With no active coal proposals in Latin America and Brazil hosting the COP30 climate talks this year, the region is in a prime position to lead the charge in the global coal-to-clean energy transition – and help keep the Paris Climate Agreement on track.

About the Global Coal Plant Tracker

The Global Coal Plant Tracker provides information on coal-fired power units from around the world generating 30 megawatts and above. It catalogs every operating coal-fired generating unit, every new unit proposed since 2010, and every unit retired since 2000. The map and underlying data is updated bi-annually, around January and July. Around April and October, partial supplemental releases also cover updates to proposed coal units outside of China.

Media Contact

Christine Shearer

Project Manager, Global Coal Plant Tracker

christine.shearer@globalenergymonitor.org

The post Latin America shelves last new coal plant plans appeared first on Global Energy Monitor.

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Boom and Bust is an annual survey of the global coal fleet by Global Energy Monitor and partners. The report analyzes key trends in coal power capacity and tracks various stages of capacity development including planned retirements. This provides key insights into the status of the global phaseout of coal power and evaluates progress towards the world’s climate targets and commitments. 

The data comes from GEM’s Global Coal Plant Tracker, an online database updated biannually, with partial quarterly supplements, that identifies and maps every known coal-fired generating unit and every new unit proposed since January 1, 2010 (30 MW and larger). 

Global Energy Monitor’s data serves as a vital international reference point used by organizations including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, International Energy Agency, and the United Nations, as well as global media outlets.

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In 2024, global coal power additions dropped to their lowest level in 20 years, yet the world’s coal fleet continued to grow, according to Global Energy Monitor’s annual survey of the global coal fleet.

Data from the Global Coal Plant Tracker show that 44.1 gigawatts (GW) of coal power capacity was commissioned while 25.2 GW was retired in 2024, resulting in a net increase of 18.8 GW. The capacity commissioned was nearly 30 GW below the annual average for 2004 to 2024 (72 GW) — a sign of the continued slowdown in global coal construction.

Even so, retirements have not kept pace with new additions. Global coal capacity rose to 2,175 GW, up 259 GW since the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015. Most of this growth came from China, which commissioned 30.5 GW of coal power capacity in 2024 — 70% of the global total — and saw 94.5 GW in new construction starts, the highest in nearly a decade.

Outside China, coal power capacity decreased by 9.2 GW, as retirements (22.8 GW) exceeded new additions (13.5 GW) in the rest of the world. In the EU27, retirements quadrupled year over year, reaching 11 GW, while the UK shut down its last coal plant, becoming the sixth country to complete a coal phaseout since 2015.

But elsewhere, progress stalled. Retirements slowed in the United States, falling to 4.7 GW — the country’s lowest level in a decade. At the same time, India recorded its highest-ever level of new coal proposals, totaling 38.4 GW. But outside of China and India, new proposals fell to just 8.8 GW — the lowest level since 2015 — highlighting a continued contraction of the coal project pipeline across most of the world.

As new proposals have declined globally, coal development has become increasingly concentrated in fewer countries. Just ten countries now account for 96% of coal power capacity under development, with China and India alone responsible for 87%. This consolidation reflects the accelerating exit from coal in much of the world, even as a small group of countries continues to pursue large-scale expansion.

In the 38 countries comprising the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the shift away from coal has been especially pronounced: The number of coal plant proposals has dropped from 142 in 2015 to just five today. But despite this progress, coal retirements in OECD countries need to more than triple — from 19 GW to 70 GW annually — to align with the Paris Agreement.

Coal power set records last year but not the ones industry would like to see. Last year was a harbinger of things to come for coal as the clean energy transition moves full speed ahead. But work is still needed to ensure coal power is phased out in line with the Paris climate agreement, particularly in the world’s wealthiest nations.

Christine Shearer, Project Manager of Global Energy Monitor’s Global Coal Plant Tracker

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Coal exits gather speed in Europe, while major economies fall behind

Retirements surged in Europe in 2024, with the EU27 retiring 11 GW of coal capacity — a fourfold increase over 2023. Germany led the way, retiring 6.7 GW, while the United Kingdom completed its coal phaseout — a key milestone in Europe’s broader shift away from coal. These shifts underscore the accelerating pace of coal retirements across much of Europe.

All but three EU countries are now planning to be coal-free by 2033, and both Ireland and Spain are expected to complete their phaseouts in 2025. Still, at least seven EU countries have timelines that will need to be accelerated to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement.

But elsewhere, progress was far less consistent. In the United States, coal retirements fell to 4.7 GW, the country’s lowest annual total since 2014. The slowdown extends a trend that began in 2021, as fewer plants are being scheduled for closure and more retirements face delays.

Coal plant retirements in the U.S. are expected to pick up over the next few years. Despite the Trump administration’s support for coal, more coal was retired during Trump’s first term than under Obama or Biden — a trend that is set to continue.

Meanwhile, China’s retirements remained minimal, leaving the country off track to meet its 30 GW retirement goal under the current 14th Five-Year Plan (2021–2025). With far more plants being added than taken offline, China’s coal fleet continued to expand — underscoring the challenge of achieving net reductions without a formal phaseout policy.

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China and India defy the global coal decline

While most of the world moved away from coal in 2024, China and India continued to drive large-scale development, expanding their coal pipelines even as many other countries backed away.

In China, a surge in construction activity followed an unprecedented permitting boom in 2022 and 2023, during which more than 200 GW of coal capacity was approved — more than the size of the entire U.S. coal fleet. In 2024, 94.5 GW of that capacity moved into construction, the country’s highest level of construction starts since 2015.

If not curtailed, this wave of new coal plants could undermine President Xi Jinping’s pledge to strictly limit the growth in coal consumption by 2025.

Meanwhile, India proposed 38.4 GW of new coal power in 2024 — the highest annual total on record. The country plans to build more than 90 GW of new coal by 2032, even as it targets 500 GW of non-fossil capacity by 2030.

Although many countries have now committed to phasing out coal, the ongoing expansion in China and India threatens to offset global progress.

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Outside Asia’s giants, momentum toward phaseout grows

In Southeast Asia, several countries are moving toward a managed exit from coal. New proposals have dwindled across the region, driven by phaseout pledges in Indonesia and Malaysia, a moratorium on coal plant permitting in the Philippines, and the development of just transition planning in Vietnam.

Indonesia presents a more complicated picture. While the country appears on track to retire 9.2 GW of coal by 2030, and President Prabowo has pledged to phase out coal power by 2040, a major challenge is emerging: the rapid growth of captive coal plants — those supplying electricity directly to industrial facilities. These plants fall outside the grid-based retirement pledges and risk repeating the pattern of the past decade’s buildout: overcapacity, cost overruns, and controversy.

Meanwhile, in Turkiye, coal power expansion has nearly ground to a halt, as the country’s pipeline of new proposals has collapsed — leaving just one remaining project (0.7 GW). This puts the country on the verge of joining other OECD nations in eliminating all unabated coal plant proposals.

In Latin America, countries are approaching a full exit from coal. Only Brazil and Honduras still have coal proposals on the books, and even those have lingered for years without progress. In 2024, Panama committed to phasing out coal power by 2026, joining a growing group of countries in the region moving toward coal-free electricity.

But while most of Latin America is phasing out coal, Brazil remains home to the last coal plant proposal over 100 megawatts in Latin America, and its coal subsidies are drawing growing criticism. Brazilian ratepayers are set to spend R$8 billion (US$1 billion) between 2020 and 2027 to support just two coal plants, with the Brazilian Congress currently debating a R$92 billion (US$16 billion) extension through 2050. These measures risk locking in coal for decades, despite clear regional momentum in the opposite direction.

In Africa, coal development remains limited but not absent. Most countries in the region are prioritizing renewables and gas, and no new coal plants were commissioned in 2024. Still, new proposals emerged in Zimbabwe and Zambia, largely backed by Chinese developers — despite the Chinese government’s 2021 pledge to stop building new coal plants overseas. These projects stand out as exceptions in a region where coal activity has stalled, and raise concerns about fossil fuel lock-in in emerging energy systems.

While most OECD countries have moved away from coal, Japan and South Korea remain notable holdouts. Both countries continued to build and plan new coal plants in 2024, placing them increasingly out of step with international climate commitments and the broader shift among high-income economies.

In an effort to justify ongoing coal use, Japan and South Korea jointly agreed in 2024 to promote ammonia co-firing at coal plants as an “emissions reduction” strategy. But this approach has drawn criticism for prolonging the life of coal infrastructure and falling short of what’s needed to align with the Paris Agreement.

Coal phaseouts are lagging where they matter most

While much of the world continues to move away from coal power, the pace of retirements and project cancellations remains far too slow to meet global climate goals.

The divide between progress and continued buildout widened in 2024. Many countries completed or accelerated coal exits, while others ramped up new construction. This uneven trajectory has left the global coal transition off pace for aligning with the Paris Agreement.

Boom and Bust Coal 2025 is a joint effort by Global Energy Monitor, Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), E3G, Reclaim Finance, Sierra Club, Solutions for Our Climate, Kiko Network, Climate Action Network (CAN) Europe, Waterkeepers Bangladesh, Dhoritri Rokhhay Amra (DHORA), Trend Asia, Policy Research Institute for Equitable Development, Chile Sustentable, POLEN Transiciones Justas, Arayara, Bankwatch, INSAPROMA, and Africa Just Transition Network.

The post Boom and Bust Coal 2025 appeared first on Global Energy Monitor.

Chinaʼs continued coal power expansion is undermining the countryʼs clean energy progress, according to a new report from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air and Global Energy Monitor. In 2024, coal power construction activity surged to 94.5 GW, its highest level since 2015, reinforcing coalʼs entrenched role in the power system. Meanwhile, the country approved 66.7 GW of new coal-fired power capacity, with approvals picking up in the second half after a slower start to the year.

While China is leading the world in renewable energy deployment—adding a record 356 GW of wind and solar capacity in 2024—the simultaneous expansion of coal power raises critical concerns about its ability to transition away from fossil fuels. Instead of replacing coal, clean energy is being layered on top of an existing fossil-fuel-heavy system, making it increasingly difficult to achieve the intended shift toward a renewables-driven power sector.

Despite the slow-down in previous years and early 2024, the coal power permit rebound in the second half of 2024, was not insignificant and contradicts policy commitments to curb coal consumption. The uptick in coal power permits threatens to lock in fossil fuel reliance at a time when Chinaʼs power system needs greater flexibility to integrate renewables.

In 2024, more than 75% of newly approved coal power capacity was backed by coal mining companies or energy groups with coal operations, reinforcing coalʼs dominance even when market fundamentals do not justify expansion. Long-term coal power contracts, as well as local government justifications for new plants – often based on economic growth rather than grid reliability – and the strong influence of coal mining companies in financing new projects are further delaying the energy transition.

Competition between coal and renewables is intensifying, with growing curtailment of wind and solar generation, particularly in the fourth quarter of 2024.

These trends challenge Chinaʼs climate commitments, including the targets set out by President Xi Jinping personally to “strictly control coal-fired power generation projects, and strictly limit the increase in coal consumption over the 14th Five-Year Plan period and phase it down in the 15th Five-Year Plan period”. The report warns that without urgent policy shifts, China risks reinforcing a pattern of energy addition rather than transition, limiting the full potential of its clean energy boom.

Qi Qin, China Analyst at CREA: “China’s rapid expansion of renewable energy has the potential to reshape its power system, but this opportunity is being undermined by the simultaneous large-scale expansion of coal power. The continued approval and construction of new coal plants—often driven by industry interests and outdated contracts rather than actual grid needs—risks locking China into fossil fuel dependence at a time when flexibility is crucial for integrating clean energy. Without decisive policy shifts, Chinaʼs energy transition will remain an ‘energy addition’ rather than a true transformation away from coal.”

Chinese coal power and mining companies are sponsoring and building new coal plants beyond what is needed to back up the countryʼs impressive growth in solar and wind power. The continued pursuit of coal is crowding out the countryʼs use of lower-cost clean energy, and is threatening to undermine President Xiʼs 2021 pledge to strictly limit coal consumption and phase it down over the next five years.

Christine Shearer, Research Analyst at Global Energy Monitor

The post When coal won’t step aside: The challenge of scaling clean energy in China appeared first on Global Energy Monitor.

In all, proposed coal plants in the OECD region have decreased from 142 in 2015 to just five today – a drop of 96%. 

This is according to Global Energy Monitor’s latest Global Coal Plant Tracker (GCPT) results, completed in the third quarter (Q3) of 2024. The GCPT catalogues all coal-fired power units 30 megawatts (MW) or larger biannually, with the first survey dating back to 2014.

Figure 1

The OECD is an intergovernmental organization with 38 member countries founded in 1961 to stimulate economic growth and global trade, comprising many of the wealthiest countries on the globe.

Of the thirteen OECD countries with coal plant proposals in 2015, all but Türkiye have since pledged to stop building new coal plants. 

There are exceptions to the pledges for coal plants that significantly lessen or “abate” carbon dioxide emissions through the use of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology. Four of the five remaining proposals include plans for CCS.

The drop in proposals puts the region well on its way to “no new coal,” defined as cancelling all unabated coal proposals not under construction.

The OECD and no new coal

Since 2015, proposed coal-fired capacity in the OECD has fallen from 142 coal proposals totaling 111 gigawatts (GW) to five proposals totaling 3 GW. 

None of the five proposals have the necessary permits for construction, meaning it will likely be several years before construction begins – if they are built at all, as most of the proposals since 2015 in the OECD have been abandoned entirely. 

Of the 111 GW proposed in 2015, 82% (91 GW) have since been shelved or cancelled, compared to 17% (19 GW) commissioned. The remaining 1% (1 GW) has been under construction since 2019, the last time a coal plant has broken ground in the OECD. 

The 111 GW of proposals in 2015 were located across thirteen countries: Australia, Canada, Colombia, Germany, Greece, Israel, Italy, Japan, Poland, South Korea, Türkiye, UK, and the U.S.

Since 2015, twelve of the thirteen countries have pledged support for no new coal, whether as part of the international Powering Past Coal Alliance or through a domestic moratorium on new coal plant permits. The UK phased out coal power entirely this year.

“No new coal” commitments have been aided by the decreasing costs of competitive power sources, including gas and, increasingly, solar and wind power. Additionally, many countries have seen sustained opposition campaigns to new coal over pollution and high energy costs.

As the OECD turns away from new coal, coal power capacity in the region peaked in 2010 at 655 GW and has since declined by about one-third to 443 GW as countries shut down aging coal plants.

Figure 2

Türkiye resists no new coal

To date, the government of Türkiye has resisted calls for no new coal, despite repeated rollbacks in its coal plans.

Most of the country’s proposed coal plants have not materialized. Since 2015, over 70 GW of planned coal plant capacity in Türkiye has been called off compared to 6 GW commissioned, translating to a cancellation rate of 92% since 2015 – one of the highest cancellation rates in the world.

Figure 3

Coal plant proposals in Türkiye face a myriad of challenges, including strong public opposition over coal plant pollution and coal industry privatization, and domestic lignite coal that is low-quality and unreliable, leading many plants to use higher-cost imported coal instead.

In Q3 2024, the licenses for two coal plants – Karaburun and Kirazlıdere – were canceled due to irregularities in the environmental permitting process and the loss of interest in the investment by the plant sponsors. Another plant, Malkara, was shelved due to a lack of activity.

The developments have left Türkiye with one coal plant proposal – a remarkable development after being among the top ten countries with proposed coal-powered capacity for nearly a decade.

Despite the setbacks, Türkiye has not committed to ending new coal plant proposals. Its recently updated climate pledge, submitted during COP29, makes no mention of coal phaseout.

The country’s remaining proposal is a 688 MW two-unit expansion of the sizable Afşin-Elbistan power station complex in the city of Kahramanmaraş. Local residents have opposed the project, saying the increase in pollution in the densely-populated city will lead to thousands of premature deaths and cost billions of dollars.

Australia, Japan, the U.S. and “clean coal” 

The remaining four coal plant proposals in the OECD are located in Australia, Japan, and the U.S. 

While the governments of all three countries have recently pledged support for “no new coal”, they also support CCS to lessen or “abate” emissions from coal plants.

Abated coal plants are considered compatible with no new coal pledges if they meet Paris agreement-aligned definitions regarding “substantially lower” carbon emissions. 

Critics argue CCS proposals are more expensive and polluting than cleaner electricity alternatives, often relying heavily on government subsidies in order to be economically viable. Only a handful of CCS coal plants have reached commercial operation, and none have achieved their target carbon capture rate. 

The Japanese government signed on to a G7 agreement earlier this year to phase out unabated coal power by the mid-2030s and continues to promote a suite of “clean coal” technologies both domestically and abroad. The country’s proposal is a new coal gasification unit at J-Power’s Matsushima power station, dubbed GENESIS. The proposal is a veritable hodgepodge of “clean coal” tech, with plans to co-fire biomass, ammonia, and hydrogen, as well as utilize CCS. 

The U.S. under President Biden also signed on to the G7 agreement and was one of twelve countries that joined the Powering Past Coal Alliance during COP28 in 2023. The country has two Department of Energy (DOE)-backed proposals with plans for CCS, as required under pending regulations for new coal power plants. While the future of both the coal pledges and regulations are uncertain given the recent re-election of Trump, to date the former president has been unable to turn the tide for coal, with more coal power capacity retired under Trump’s first term than either Obama or Biden, and no new coal plant built in a decade. 

Australia’s Labor party, voted into power in 2022, recently joined a COP29 call for no new unabated coal. The country has not commissioned a new coal plant since 2012, with over 13 GW proposed coal-fired capacity cancelled since 2010. The country’s remaining coal proposal, the Collinsville (Shine Energy) power station, has been touted by its sponsors as a “high efficiency, low emissions” (HELE) coal project with plans to include CCS.

About the Global Coal Plant Tracker

The Global Coal Plant Tracker provides information on coal-fired power units from around the world generating 30 megawatts and above. The GCPT catalogues every operating coal-fired generating unit, every new unit proposed since 2010, and every unit retired since 2000.

About Global Energy Monitor

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Media Contact

Christine Shearer

Project Manager, Global Coal Plant Tracker

christine.shearer@globalenergymonitor.com

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The analysis– an update to CREA and GEMʼs 2023 report–finds that sizable growth in captive coal is expected to continue, with an estimated total of 11.04 GW up to 2026, including all units in the construction, pre-permitted, and announced phases. Combined with the 132 units of operational captive coal-fired power plants (CFPPs) totaling 15.2 GW, proposals would put total captive coal capacity at 26.24 GW, which is greater than the total coal plant capacity of all of Australia in 2023and would put captive in the largest share of Indonesiaʼs coal generation outside of PLN and IPPs, at nearly 40%.

Captive coal power in Indonesia is mainly dedicated to powering a select range of energy-intensive industries, with metals such as nickel and aluminium holding major shares, followed by pulp and paper, chemicals, cement, and textiles. Major additions of CFPPs in the pipeline are attributed to Indonesiaʼs metals processing industry, such as nickel. While nickel is a critical metal for EVs and batteries, captive coal plants are among the most carbon-intensive routes to meet this demand.

The health and economic impacts of unchecked CFPP development in Indonesia would be catastrophic. Analysis on nickel industrial complexes located in Central and Southeast Sulawesi and North Maluku reveals that under the current growth pathway and without strengthened emission and environmental standards, exposure to air pollution emitted from coal-based smelting processes and associated captive coal power plants would lead to nearly 5,000 deaths in 2030 and cause IDR 56 trillion (USD 3.42 billion) in economic burden. Meanwhile, exclusion of captive CFPP retirement from a 2040 coal phase-out target would cause an additional 27,000 deaths and IDR 330 trillion (USD 20 billion) of economic burden from cumulative health impacts nationwide.

However, showing a proactive stance on global climate partnerships like JETP and blessed with abundant renewables potential, Indonesia holds the capability to pivot from captive coal and become a leader in industrial decarbonisation. Whatʼs more, the financial benefits of renewables clearly outweigh those of remaining reliant on coal– by 2025, solar-storage levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) in Indonesia with preferential financing is projected to be USD 0.01 cents per kWh cheaper than coal. In the next decade, pricing will be even better, with the cost difference anticipated to be over USD0.03 cents perk Wh.

In anticipation of the JETP Secretariatʼs release of Indonesiaʼs captive power landscape mapping, national and global stakeholders will be presented with a collective opportunity to catalyse decarbonisation efforts. Inclusion of captive CFPP retirement in Indonesiaʼs national plan would not only support the governmentʼs energy transition and climate targets, but would also garner interest for clean energy investments.

Katherine Hasan, Analyst at CREA: “Indonesiaʼs willingness and ability to meet global climate commitments is manifest in the JETP as well as the recent release of the Second Nationally Determined Contribution (SNDC) draft. However, the efficacy of these actions is being threatened by an ever-expanding coal capacity within our nationʼs core industries. Setting a clear and ambitious schedule for early CFPP retirement and renewables integration would not only support the governmentʼs climate targets, but also help to attract the clean energy investments Indonesia needs to secure a strategic position in the global RE supply chain.”

Addressing the role of coal in Indonesiaʼs energy transition cannot be limited to the power sector. It is critical to set out a clear pathway for all captive power facilities. As a leading supplier of critical minerals for the global clean energy supply chain, Indonesia must leverage its national plan and retire captive coal-fired power plants to decarbonise energy intensive industries like nickel, a process that requires both investment and strong governance.

Lucy Hummer, Senior Researcher at Global Energy Monitor

The post Indonesia’s captive coal on the uptick appeared first on Global Energy Monitor.

• China is developing approximately 1,280 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) of coal mine capacity, nearly half of the proposed capacity globally and more than double India’s planned capacity for million tonne scale coal mines. 
• Nearly 80% (1,022 Mtpa) of these mine proposals are greenfield developments, indicating a strong industry push to establish new operations.
• China’s operating large-scale coal mines with a capacity of 1 Mtpa or more total 3,881 million tonnes (Mt) annually, nearly half the global total from similar large-scale mines and roughly double the combined output of India, Indonesia, and Australia — the world’s next three biggest coal producers.
• China’s operating coal mines emit 52,726 million cubic meters (MCM) of methane annually, equivalent to roughly 70% of the global total for coal mine methane emissions from operating mines of similar size.

Global coal output is on the rise again after a short downturn in 2020, with China now supplying more than half the world’s total and responsible for nearly half of all new proposals, posing a significant threat to the country’s dual-carbon goals, according to a new report from Global Energy Monitor. 

Data in the Global Coal Mine Tracker show that China has a proposed capacity of 1,155 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa), primarily from projects with a designed capacity of at least 1 Mtpa, representing nearly double Australia’s total coal production from similarly sized mines.

GEM data show that during the first three years of the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021–2025), approximately 614 million tonnes of coal were in different stages of development, more than the annual output of Australia.

When combined with previously proposed projects and a lowered capacity threshold to 0.6 Mtpa, China is now developing a total of 1,280 Mtpa of coal capacity across fourteen provinces, more than half the global pipeline. If materialized, and without robust mitigation measures, this massive expansion will significantly increase methane emissions.

GEM revealed that China’s operating coal mines emit a staggering 52,726 MCM of methane annually, equivalent to approximately 35 Mt of methane released each year. This figure is nearly twice the emissions estimated by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in their Global Methane Tracker, which reported that China’s coal mining sector was responsible for about 20 Mt of methane emissions in 2023.

The significance of China’s coal mine emissions becomes even more apparent when compared to emissions from coal mines of similar size in other coal-producing countries. China’s operating coal mine methane emissions account for roughly 70% of the global total for coal mine methane emissions from operating mines of similar size. 

With substantial coal mine expansion planned, China is poised to become an even larger emitter of global coal mine methane emissions. If all proposed projects materialize, another 14,956 MCM (10 Mt) of methane will be emitted annually, potentially accounting for nearly 75% of projected methane releases from proposed mines worldwide.

The surge in new production starkly contrasts with China’s dual carbon neutrality targets. The potential for increased methane emissions from these new mines, coupled with the challenge of abandoned coal mine methane as China accelerates the closure of small-scale and inefficient operations, poses significant risks to China’s climate goals.

China’s coal industry is at a pivotal juncture. While the government is after energy security with a heavy reliance on coal, the nation is also committed to expanding renewable energy. Recent surges in coal production, prompted by supply concerns, may be curtailed by the nation’s ongoing efforts to optimize the energy mix and reduce coal demand through a structural shift towards renewable energy sources.

Dorothy Mei, Project Manager for the Global Coal Mine Tracker

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The post Southeast Asia’s not so young coal plants appeared first on Global Energy Monitor.

The report finds that in the first half of 2024, China reduced coal power permits by 83% compared to H1 2023, permitting only 9 gigawatts (GW) in H1 2024¹. Following the surge in coal power permits exceeding 100 GW annually in 2022 and 2023, the current decline in coal power activity is further reflected in the reduction of new and revived coal power proposals, totalling 37 GW in early 2024, down from 60 GW in early 2023.

Despite these encouraging signs, significant challenges persist. In the first half of 2024, construction began on over 41 GW of coal projects, nearly equaling the total that started construction during all of 2022 and constituting more than 90% of global new coal construction activities. Moreover, the government’s goal of bringing 80 GW of coal-fired capacity online in 2024 indicates a potential increase in project completions in the latter half of the year, from 8 GW commissioned in H1 2024.

The slowdown in coal power permitting is largely due to the rapid development of clean energy, which is now being installed at levels sufficient to meet China’s electricity demand growth. This shift has prompted the central government to revise its policy focus. While continuing to support clean energy development, the government is also prioritising carbon emission reductions to meet its climate and energy goals. By limiting new coal power projects and emphasising grid reforms, energy storage, and other clean solutions, China can set the stage for significant emission reductions. 

However, this transition will require phasing down the existing massive coal power fleet and addressing the interests of coal power stakeholders. To meet long-term emission targets, China must also accelerate the retirement of existing coal plants and cancel previously permitted projects.

Given China’s strategic shift towards reducing carbon emissions and the rapid development of clean energy, it is unlikely we will see another surge in coal power approvals in China similar to that of 2022-2023. Nevertheless, China’s technical plans to reduce rather than eliminate carbon emissions from coal power and its continued insistence on coal as a baseload power source indicate that coal power will continue to play a significant role in the near-term energy landscape.  

To mitigate the global climate crisis, China’s upcoming Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and 15th Five-Year Plan must include ambitious targets for both coal consumption reduction and renewable energy expansion.

Qi Qin, lead author of the report & China Analyst at CREA: “The development of clean energy enables the Chinese government to set more ambitious goals for reducing coal power generation and carbon emissions. China needs to stop allowing room for fossil fuel emissions to grow in its policies. Energy security should be achieved through clean energy and a more flexible, market-oriented power grid, rather than by burning coal.”

The steep drop in new coal plant permits is a hopeful sign that China’s massive solar and wind builds are dampening its coal ambitions. With clean power now capable of meeting the country’s electricity demand growth, China should cancel its remaining coal proposals and accelerate the retirement of its existing coal plants.

Christine Shearer, Research Analyst at Global Energy Monitor

¹ The 9 GW figure for H1 2024 is based on the best available data at the time of publication of this report. As more comprehensive data becomes available, it is possible that the actual number of permits issued may be slightly higher. Nonetheless, the overall trend of a significant reduction in coal power permits remains clear.

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Key points

• Abandoned underground coal mines in the European Union that have closed since 2015 could emit an estimated 298 million cubic meters (MCM) of methane per year, equivalent to the amount of potential emissions leaked from the Nordstream pipeline after the 2022 explosion.
• Poland is the top emitter of abandoned mine methane (AMM): Its sixteen mines release an estimated 110 MCM of methane annually, nearly 40% of the EU’s total AMM. The Czech Republic (90 MCM) and Germany (55 MCM) rank as the second and third largest AMM emitters without mitigation measures. 
• Without mitigation, just six mines could account for half (152 MCM) of the methane emissions from all EU’s AMM.

Methane emissions from abandoned underground coal mines in the EU emit as much as the Nordstream pipeline explosion in 2022, according to a first-of-its-kind analysis by Global Energy Monitor of its pioneering granular coal mine dataset. 

The Global Coal Mine Tracker includes data on 5,226 active and proposed coal mines responsible for more than 90% of global coal production, and, as of April 2024, it also includes data on more than 1,200 retired and abandoned coal mines around the world, including all the known abandoned coal mines in the EU that were closed between 2015 and 2023, where information is available.

Poland holds the dubious distinction of having the most abandoned underground hard coal mines in the EU. This translates into being the EU’s largest AMM emitter, releasing an estimated 110 MCM of methane annually. Notably, this amount of methane accounts for nearly 40% of the EU’s total annual AMM emissions.

The Czech Republic is the second largest AMM emitter in the EU, contributing approximately 90 MCM of methane each year. Two large scale underground mines, ČSA Coal Mine and Darkov Coal Mine that both closed in 2021 are responsible for nearly 70% of the country’s AMM emissions. 

Despite having only three identified abandoned underground mines closed between 2015 and 2023, Germany ranks as the third largest AMM emitter, releasing approximately 55 MCM of methane annually. This is likely due to the extreme depth of its mines and the high-quality anthracite coal, which may have a higher gas content. Germany is also a global leader in AMM utilization, meaning it has extensive experience in capturing methane emissions from abandoned mines and utilizing 99% of their total AMM emissions, primarily for electricity generation through combined heat and power plants.

The combined AMM emissions from the top three countries contribute almost 90% of the EU’s total AMM emissions.

In addition, just six mines account for roughly half of all EU abandoned underground mine methane, including the ČSA and Darkov coal mines in the Czech Republic, the Auguste Victoria Colliery and Prosper-Haniel Mine in Germany, and Poland’s KWK Mysłowice-Wesoła I and KWK Rydułtowy I mines.

The International Energy Agency has said that coal mining activities are responsible for more than 10% of total methane emissions, yet this figure does not include emissions from abandoned mines, which it has also said could constitute a substantial portion of global methane emissions.

In order to help close this gap, in November 2023, the EU reached a provisional agreement to curb methane emissions. Once formally enacted, these regulations will require companies to not only limit venting from thermal coal mines but also to maintain an inventory of closed, inactive, and abandoned assets so that monitoring and mitigation of their emissions can occur, among other provisions.

When a coal mine is closed, methane emissions do not simply stop, especially if there are no mitigation measures in place. The EU has a huge abandoned mine methane problem that until now it barely understood. Our dataset is essential because you can’t manage what you can’t monitor. The EU’s regulation on methane emissions reduction is a promising path forward, and with improved data collection, we can expect to get a better handle on the scale of the problem and move towards more effective mitigation.

Dorothy Lan Mei, Project Manager for the Global Coal Mine Tracker

Dr. Sabina Assan, Coal Mine Methane Analyst for Ember, said, “The EU’s closed and abandoned mines are an overlooked, and often forgotten methane source. Current estimates put emissions at 25% of the EU’s CMM emissions, but due to the lack of measurements and data it could be more. With the EU’s transition away from thermal coal and the upcoming EU Methane Regulation, the quality and speed of implementing measures to mitigate abandoned mine methane will be crucial for the EU to meet its climate goals.”

The post The hidden threat: Abandoned coal mine methane emissions in the EU appeared first on Global Energy Monitor.

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Boom and Bust is an annual survey of the global coal fleet by Global Energy Monitor and partners. The report analyzes key trends in coal power capacity and tracks various stages of capacity development including planned retirements. This provides key insights into the status of the global phaseout of coal power and evaluates progress towards the world’s climate targets and commitments. 

The data comes from GEM’s Global Coal Plant Tracker, an online database updated biannually that identifies and maps every known coal-fired generating unit and every new unit proposed since January 1, 2010 (30 MW and larger). 

Global Energy Monitor’s data serves as a vital international reference point used by organizations including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , International Energy Agency and the United Nations as well as global media outlets.

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Global operating coal capacity grew by 2% in 2023, with China driving two- thirds of new additions, and a small uptick was seen for the first time since 2019 in the rest of the world, according to Global Energy Monitor’s annual survey of the global coal fleet. 

Data in the Global Coal Plant Tracker show that 69.5 GW of coal power capacity was commissioned while 21.1 GW was retired in 2023, resulting in a net annual increase of 48.4 GW for the year and a global total capacity of 2,130 GW. This is the highest net increase in operating coal capacity since 2016.

The global operating coal fleet grew further, including rise outside China for first time since 2019 as retirements slowed

Annual change in coal-fired power capacity, in gigawatts (GW)

A surge in new coal plants coming online in China drove this increase — 47.4 GW, or roughly two- thirds of global additions — coupled with new capacity in Indonesia, India, Vietnam, Japan, Bangladesh, Pakistan, South Korea, Greece, and Zimbabwe. 

In total, 22.1 GW was commissioned and 17.4 GW was retired outside of China, resulting in a 4.7 GW net increase to the operating coal fleet.

Although new retirement plans and phaseout commitments continued to emerge, less coal capacity was retired in 2023 than in any other single year in more than a decade.

Lower retirements in the U.S. and Europe contributed to the coal capacity upswing. At 9.7 GW, the U.S. contributed nearly half of capacity retired in 2023, a drop from the 14.7 GW retired last year and its 21.7 GW record high in 2015. 

European Union member states and the United Kingdom represented roughly a quarter of retirements, with the U.K. (3.1 GW), Italy (0.6 GW), and Poland (0.5 GW) leading the region’s retirements for the year. 

But the accelerated growth in coal capacity may be short-lived, as low retirement rates in 2023 that contributed to coal’s rise are expected to pick up speed in the U.S. and Europe, offsetting the blip. Heightened capacity additions would also be tempered if China takes immediate action to ensure it meets its target of shutting down 30 gigawatts (GW) of coal capacity by 2025.

Coal’s fortunes this year are an anomaly, as all signs point to reversing course from this accelerated expansion. But countries that have coal plants to retire need to do so more quickly, and countries that have plans for new coal plants must make sure these are never built. Otherwise we can forget about meeting our goals in the Paris Agreement and reaping the benefits that a swift transition to clean energy will bring.

Flora Champenois, GEM Coal Program Director

The trajectory the global coal fleet takes from here depends to an extent on new construction starts — one of the key indicators of growth in the sector — which declined outside of China for the second year in a row and hit a record annual low since data collection began in 2015. In China, the exact opposite happened, with new construction starts increasing for the fourth year in a row and hitting an eight-year high. 

The report shows that construction started on less than 4 GW of new projects outside China in 2023, well below the 16 GW annual average between 2015 and 2022 for the same set of countries. Only seven countries, excluding China, appeared to start construction on new coal units last year: one plant each in India, Laos, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Russia, as well as three plants in Indonesia.

Moreover, no coal plant construction has started in Latin America since 2016, and no coal plant construction has started for member countries within the OECD, Europe, or the Middle East since 2019. In Nigeria, the start of foundation work at the mine-mouth Ugboba power station in 2023 was the first known construction start in Africa since 2019.

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Gap between China and rest of world widens further on key coal indicators

But China’s continued coal construction surge in 2023 stands in stark contrast to these global trends and offsets gains from dwindling coal capacity elsewhere. 

China’s 70.2 GW of new construction starts in 2023 represents 19 times more than the rest of the world’s 3.7 GW and is the country’s highest annual capacity breaking ground since 2015. 

The new construction starts in China were also nearly quadruple what they were in 2019 when it hit a nine-year annual low of entirely new builds.

In 2023, coal capacity in development globally — including projects in the announced, pre-permit, permitted, and in construction phases — increased from 550.6 GW to 578.2 GW, a 5% increase driven by China.

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Progress towards the last coal plant starting construction continues

The global coal landscape has been in transformation for almost a decade, marked by a collapse in the amount of planned coal power plants following the adoption of the Paris Agreement in late 2015. There has been a 68% reduction in global pre-construction capacity since then, and new construction starts are at their lowest outside of China since data collection began.

The past year has seen the OECD and EU continue to progress in their journey away from coal. The operating coal fleet and the pre-construction capacity in the OECD/EU have both declined in 2023, continuing the downward trend since the Paris Agreement.

The total pre-construction capacity is now at 7.1 GW, the lowest level since data collection began for the region. Only four countries, Australia, Japan, Türkiye, and the United States, are still considering coal projects. Türkiye has had seven planned projects put on hold in 2023, but it still accounts for 68% of the planned capacity in the OECD/EU and remains the only OECD country in the global top ten.

Climate concerns, unfavorable economics, and public opposition continue to close the door on many coal plant proposals — and close actual doors at some coal plants. In 2023, twelve new countries committed to No New Coal by becoming members of the Powering Past Coal Alliance (PPCA). 

As of January 2024, 101 countries have either formally committed to No New Coal or have abandoned any coal plans they had in the last decade. This shows a growing awareness of the need to shift to cleaner and more sustainable energy sources, even in places where coal has previously been a major part of the energy mix.

Almost all countries have reduced their announced, pre-permit, permitted, and construction coal capacity since 2015. Only six countries have increased coal power capacity under development since 2015, and the biggest increase did not exceed 3 GW. In contrast, coal power capacity under development in China, India, and Türkiye decreased by more than 300 GW, 200 GW, and 50 GW, respectively, between 2015 and 2023.

Which countries are still planning more coal?

China and India, the two largest coal consumers globally, continue to substantially influence the global coal narrative, collectively accounting for 82% of the total pre-construction capacity (announced, pre-permit, and permitted) worldwide. 

Outside of China and India, pre-construction capacity is currently at its lowest since data collection began, but growth in these two countries resulted in the total global capacity in pre-construction increasing by 6% in 2023.

This significant concentration highlights China’s increasing dominance in coal capacity development. 

China and ten other countries account for 95% of coal power capacity under consideration

Coal-fired power capacity in pre-construction stages (announced, pre-permit and permitted)

Along with China, ten other countries — India, Bangladesh, Zimbabwe, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Laos, Türkiye, Russia, Pakistan, and Vietnam — collectively account for 95% of this capacity. India accounts for nearly half of the planned capacity within these ten countries. 

The remaining 5% is distributed among 21 countries, eleven of which have only one project and are on the brink of achieving the “no new coal” milestone.

Thankfully, various countries are making clear that shutting coal down is possible, and most of the world is closing in on “no new coal.” Of 82 countries with coal power, 47 have reduced or kept operating capacity flat since the 2015 Paris Agreement.

Austria, Belgium, Sweden, Portugal, Peru, and the United Arab Emirates have retired or converted their last operating coal plants, while Slovakia, the U.K., and potentially others are projected to join them in 2024.

But despite countries where coal power capacity decreased or stayed flat outnumbering those that have increased it, nearly twice as much coal power capacity has been added globally than retired since Paris. 

The number of new coal power plants coming online has outpaced plant closures over the past eight years, with the world’s coal power capacity actually rising 11% since 2015. 

The majority of the increase has come from China, where overall capacity is 260 GW higher than it was in 2015. Other countries like India, Indonesia, Vietnam, South Korea and Japan have also recorded notable increases to their operating coal capacity.

Most coal capacity still lacks a coal closure commitment 

In order to meet the 2015 Paris Agreement goals and put the world on a pathway to no more than 1.5°C of global warming, reducing the use of coal for power generation is the single most important source of emissions reductions. 

To align with that goal, modeling by the International Energy Agency and others finds that OECD countries should eliminate coal power by 2030 and the rest of the world by 2040.

Countries must ramp up phaseout commitments, as well as ensure announcements are translated into plant-by-plant retirement plans. 

Just 15% (317 GW) of the global operating capacity has a commitment to retire in line with these commitments. Another 10% (210 GW) has a closure commitment that needs to be sped up to keep up with the world’s climate goals. 

And although the vast majority of operating global coal capacity is now captured by some type of national net zero or other pledge, 75% (1,626 GW) still lacks a coal closure commitment.

Most coal power capacity needs a closure commitment

Coal-fired power capacity by phaseout status, excluding net zero commitments

Phasing out operating coal power by 2040 would require an average of 126 GW of retirements per year for the next 17 years, the equivalent of about two coal plants per week. Accounting for coal plants under construction and in pre-construction (578 GW) would require even steeper cuts.

Boom and Bust Coal 2024 is a joint effort by Global Energy Monitor, Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), E3G, Reclaim Finance, Sierra Club, Solutions for Our Climate, Kiko Network, Climate Action Network (CAN) Europe, Bangladesh Working Group on External Debt (BWGED), Coastal Livelihood and Environmental Action Network (CLEAN), Waterkeepers Bangladesh, Dhoritri Rokhhay Amra (DHORA), Trend Asia, Alliance for Climate Justice and Clean Energy, Chile Sustentable, POLEN Transiciones Justas, Iniciativa Climática de México, and Arayara. Beyond Fossil Fuels also joined the Turkish version of the report.

The post Boom and Bust Coal 2024 appeared first on Global Energy Monitor.

The report shows that China approved at least 106 gigawatts (GW) of coal power capacity and started construction on 70 GW in 2023, accelerating further the frantic pace of permitting seen in 2022, the equivalent of two new coal power plants per week, as well as starting construction on one new plant per week. China also commissioned 47 GW of coal-fired capacity and announced 108 GW in new projects in 2023.

Following its 2021 pledge to “strictly control” new coal power, Chinese approvals of new coal power plants increased fourfold over 2022 and 2023, compared with the previous five-year period between 2016 and 2020. 

Since the beginning of 2022, an estimated 218 GW of new coal power plants have been permitted. 89 GW of this capacity had already started construction as of the end of 2023, while another 128 GW had yet to break ground. 

The pledge to “strictly control” new coal power is just one of the climate commitments that China is struggling to meet. 

China’s Nationally Determined Commitment (NDC) under the Paris agreement makes commitments to strictly limit coal consumption growth; reduce energy intensity; and reduce carbon intensity. The country’s five-year plans further set targets of increasing the share of non-fossil fuels to 20% of the energy mix and deriving more than 50% of the increase in energy use from renewable sources. 

All of these targets are severely off track after 2023, based on a CREA analysis for Carbon Brief [1].

China’s deployment of clean energy accelerated dramatically in 2023. Most of the country’s climate targets for 2025 can still be met if this accelerated pace is maintained, energy demand growth returns to pre-Covid levels, and permits to new coal power plants are reviewed.

Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst, CREA: “The Chinese government has taken pride in reliably meeting or exceeding its earlier climate commitments. However, the energy- and carbon-intensive mode of economic growth during and after zero-Covid has put the country badly off track to its current targets, threatening to undermine China’s credibility. Yet, the record-breaking expansion of clean energy and electricity storage in 2023 provides an opportunity to reverse course.”

China’s ongoing coal plant permitting and construction boom continues to be at odds with President Xi’s pledge to strictly control new coal power projects, and out of step with the rest of the world. Overbuilding coal ‘just in case’ and with a ‘we’ll deal with that later’ approach is a costly and risky gamble, especially when alternative solutions are available to meet targets and address energy security.

Flora Champenois, research analyst with Global Energy Monitor

Note to editors:[1]: The analysis of China’s progress against 2025 climate targets is published on Carbon Brief simultaneously with the GEM-CREA report: Analysis: Record drop in China’s CO2 emissions needed to meet 2025 target. https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-record-drop-in-chinas-co2-emissions-needed-to-meet-2025-target/

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As of October 2023, data in the Global Coal Plant Tracker show that construction starts for the year are under 2 GW, excluding China, well below the nearly 16 GW annual average for the same set of countries in the last eight years (2015 to 2022). 

Coal power capacity beginning construction outside of China is on track for 2023 to reach a record annual low since GEM began its yearly data collection in 2015. 

With the UN’s COP28 kicking off this week in the Emirates, the collapse in new coal breaking ground provides momentum for world leaders seeking to reign in the remaining 131 coal projects (110 GW) outside of China still under consideration — projects that have either been announced or are in the pre-permit and permitted stages.

Key points from the Global Coal Power Tracker October 2023 supplemental data release include:

• In the first nine months of 2023, 18.3 GW of coal capacity moved from being proposed (announced, pre-permit, permitted) to shelved given the lack of recent updates or cancelled.
• This decrease in coal under consideration was tempered by 15.3 GW of entirely new proposals under consideration in India (8.6 GW), Indonesia (2.5 GW), Kazakhstan (4.1 GW), and Mongolia (0.05 GW), and 4.2 GW of previously shelved or cancelled capacity now considered proposed again.
• 39 GW of additional coal capacity moved from being considered shelved to cancelled, up from 32 GW in all of 2022.
• 110 GW of coal power capacity is still under consideration outside of China, with the top ten countries in terms of cumulative proposed coal making up 83%, led by India, Bangladesh, and Indonesia.
• More than 95 percent of the coal plant capacity starting construction this year was in China, with annual new construction starts there consistently rising since hitting a nine-year low in 2019.

As of the latest available data (July 2023), coal power capacity under construction outside China is highest in Southeast Asia and South Asia: India (31.6 GW), Indonesia (14.5 GW), Bangladesh (5.8 GW), and Vietnam (5.4 GW) make up 84% of the 67 GW under construction excluding China.

Seeing new coal starts bottom out and the face-off between projects under consideration versus those that have been dropped is a welcomed dose of reality ahead of tough negotiations at COP28. Governments, utilities and banks all have a role to play in accelerating the global coal to clean energy transition, starting with an end to new coal projects

Flora Champenois, Project Manager for the Global Coal Plant Tracker at Global Energy Monitor

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• Nearly half a million workers (414,200) operate mines that may reach their end of operation before 2035, affecting on average 100 workers per day.
• By 2050, nearly 1 million coal mine jobs (990,200) will no longer exist at operating mines given the coal industry’s foreseeable closures, potentially laying off over one-third (37%) of the existing workforce – even without climate pledges or policies to phase out coal.
• China and India will likely be hardest hit: China’s Shanxi province would shed the most jobs globally — nearly a quarter of a million (241,900) by 2050 — while Coal India is the producer facing the largest potential jobs cuts of 73,800 by mid-century.

Coal miners face the harsh prospect of job layoffs due to scheduled mine closures and a market shift toward cheaper wind and solar power generation, whether or not their home country has a coal phase-out policy in place. An average of 100 workers per day face potential unemployment by 2035, finds a new report from Global Energy Monitor. 

Data from the Global Coal Mine Tracker provide a first-of-its-kind look into employment at 4,300 active and proposed coal mines and projects around the world that are cumulatively responsible for more than 90% of global coal production. 

To estimate potential job losses, the Global Coal Mine Tracker records an operation’s reported “life of mine” — that is, how long coal companies intend to extract coal at the site under existing leases, permits, available reserves, and other economic considerations.

This dataset captures nearly 2.7 million coal miners directly employed at the world’s operating coal mines and finds that the coal industry is expected to shed nearly half a million jobs in the mining sector by 2035, affecting on average 100 workers per day, underlining the urgency of action to prevent widespread social and economic strife. 

Coal mine closures are inevitable, but economic hardship and social strife for workers is not. Viable transition planning is happening, like in Spain where the country regularly reviews the ongoing impacts of decarbonization. Governments should draw inspiration from its success in planning their own just energy transition strategies.

Dorothy Mei, Project Manager for the Global Coal Mine Tracker at Global Energy Monitor

Coal mining jobs have an outsize role in remote coal regions where they are anchors of economic activity and sustain ancillary workforces and employment in local consumer and information economies. 

The vast majority of these workers are in Asia (2.2 million jobs), with China and India expected to bear the brunt of coal mine closures. China has more than 1.5 million coal miners who produce over 85% of its coal, which accounts for half of the world’s output. The northern provinces of Shanxi, Henan, and Inner Mongolia mine over one-quarter of the world’s coal and employ 32% of the global mining workforce — approximately 870,400 people. 

India, the world’s second largest coal producer, has a workforce about half the size of China’s Shanxi province. The country officially employs approximately 337,400 miners at its operating mines, though some studies suggest the local mining sector has four “informal” employees for every one direct employee. 

The coal industry has a long list of mines that will close in the near term–many of them state-owned enterprises with a government stake. Governments need to shoulder their share of the burden to ensure a managed transition for those workers and communities as we move into a clean energy economy.

Tiffany Means, Researcher at Global Energy Monitor

State-owned Coal India is the world’s coal producer facing the most potential layoffs of 73,800 direct workers by 2050, underlining the imperative that governments remain involved in planning for coal worker transitions.

The coal industry itself shoulders responsibility for the sector’s unpredictable future. GEM has found that most mines expected to close in the coming decades have no planning underway to extend the life of those operations or to manage a transition into a post-coal economy.

We need to put workers first on the agenda if we want to make sure the just transition isn’t just talk. With technologies and markets primed for an energy transition, we have to be proactive about the unique concerns of coal miners and their communities.

Ryan Driskell Tate, Coal Program Director at Global Energy Monitor

The post Scraping By 2023: Global coal miners and the urgency of a just transition appeared first on Global Energy Monitor.

A new report by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) and Global Energy Monitor (GEM) finds that captive coal power, referring to power stations that are operated and utilised off-grid by industrial actors, has exploded across the island nation with nearly eight times more captive capacity operating in 2023 than in 2013.

Key findings:

• Nearly 25% of operating coal capacity in Indonesia is for captive use, but the government’s efforts to transition away from coal are currently limited to the power sector.

• Captive power capacity has increased nearly eightfold from 2013 to 2023, from 1.4 GW to 10.8 GW operating.

• 50% of proposed coal capacity additions (announced, pre-permit and shelved) as of July 2023 is for captive use. 14.4 GW of captive coal capacity is proposed or in construction.

• Indonesia is a leading supplier of the critical metals needed for a renewable energy transition, but many operating and planned smelters are operated using coal power. The national industrial development plan for 2015-2035 considers metal processing to be “added value to natural resources”, and developing coal plants is allowed when they will increase the “added value of natural resources”. Smelters are currently located in 13 provinces.

• Coal capacity additions have been outpacing renewables additions, despite Indonesia’s stated goal of peaking emissions by 2030 through the acceleration of renewable energy deployment.

• Future emissions from captive coal plants are a major threat that must be considered within the planned use of the USD 20 billion JETP funding. As the launch of the JETP investment plan has been delayed, Indonesia and international partners must negotiate commitments to clear, focused and ambitious targets.

Captive CFPPs sit at the heart of a clean energy transition contradiction. According to Global Energy Monitor’s latest Global Coal Plant Tracker update, 8.2 gigawatts (GW) of the 10.8 GW capacity operating as captive CFPPs in Indonesia are for the metal processing industry. These metals, including nickel, aluminium, and iron, are necessary products for the renewable energy transition. Yet, they are processed using power from coal.

Indonesia’s existing climate commitments effectively leave a loophole for the continued development of captive CFPPs. Over half (50.1%) of the country’s remaining proposed coal capacity additions are for captive use, but the government’s efforts to decarbonize the energy sector have thus far been limited to grid power.

In the meantime, Indonesia’s Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) investment roadmap has been officially delayed. The USD 20 billion agreement between Indonesia and the Group of 20, announced in November 2022, is the crucial opportunity Indonesia needs to phase out coal power and build out renewable energy capacity. Targets for peak and net-zero emissions have been brought forward to 2030 and 2050, respectively. Financial, political and infrastructural barriers have so far prevented these goals from being translated into actionable plans. The government must now prioritise these goals and utilise the opportunity for international support to both develop the critical metal industry and accelerate the phaseout of coal power in parallel.

The lack of transparency and ongoing challenge of even determining the true scale of the captive coal power used by industry in Indonesia risks sabotaging the country’s energy transition. Rather than let JETP planning falter, the government ought to fast-track the development of the critical metal industry and coal power phaseout with the help of international partners.

Lucy Hummer, Researcher at Global Energy Monitor

The post Emerging captive coal power in Indonesia: Dark clouds on clean energy’s horizon appeared first on Global Energy Monitor.

Despite the concerning uptick, the number of projects in development (announced, pre-permit, and permitted coal capacity including captive and non-captive) has shrunk by a staggering 85% since 2014, from 250 GW to 36 GW.

India’s coal approval spree in 2023 marks a change in India’s energy transition pattern. Last year, India did not approve any new coal power plants for the grid, which was in line with the global trend of moving away from the dirty, expensive, and outdated energy.

Flora Champenois, Research Analyst at Global Energy Monitor (GEM)

India is actively developing 65.3 GW of coal power capacity. Of this, 30.4 GW of coal power capacity is under construction and 35 GW is in various pre-construction phases (14.4 GW permitted, 11.8 GW pre-permitted, and 8.8 GW announced).

The analysis notes that India’s current proposals overshoot the already significant coal capacity expansion projected in the country’s energy plan.

Based on five-year projections in India’s latest National Electricity Plan (NEP 2023), more than 8 GW of non-captive coal-fired power plant capacity in active construction is unnecessary, and all 34.9 GW of the pre-construction capacity is also not needed.

Under the NEP’s ten-year coal projections, there is no need for any new projects to enter the pre-construction pipeline. If all pre-construction coal capacity was to come online, and 2.1 GW was to retire as projected in the NEP, installed on-grid coal capacity would reach 275 GW, far exceeding the NEP’s projected requirement of 259.6 GW in FY2032 under the base case.

Sunil Dahiya from Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) said, “Electricity demand estimated in India’s National Electricity Plan has always been over-projected compared to real demand. In the past, this has led to billions of dollars worth of coal power plants turning into non-performing assets (NPA). The ongoing push for more coal power proposals already exceeds requirements and therefore could again lead to more stranded assets.”

Dahiya further added, “Going ahead with these projects will not only worsen financial standing but also lead to climate, air pollution, and health disasters in the future. Adequate and efficient actions need to be taken now to avert these disasters.”

India has the opportunity to push for a stronger outcome and accelerate the global coal to clean energy transition at the G20 leaders’ summit in Delhi in September, addressing the twin needs of energy access and energy security. An orderly move towards clean energy will also help confront the climate crisis, raise economic productivity, create jobs, and improve environmental and public health outcomes. Simultaneously investing in both coal and renewables will only result in a messier energy transition for India.

“The country has the opportunity to set the right example and push for a strong coal-to-clean outcome at the G20 leaders’ summit in Delhi in September,” said Champenois.

The post India Enters an Unnecessary Coal Plant Permitting Spree in 2023 appeared first on Global Energy Monitor.