• Aging infrastructure, unrealized plans, and high costs continue to limit nuclear’s role in swift decarbonization, while solar and wind power are expanding rapidly and outpacing nuclear in new capacity and generation.
• Nearly 40% of all nuclear power ever proposed has been cancelled: 566 gigawatts (GW) of nuclear capacity has been cancelled worldwide, more than what is currently operational (401 GW) or retired (116 GW) combined.
• Europe’s nuclear sector has lost 122 GW of planned capacity to cancellations, more than the operating nuclear fleet of any single country worldwide. An additional 68 GW has been retired, and 90% of the remaining reactors are more than 35 years old. In contrast, European wind and utility-scale solar capacity under construction or in pre-construction outweighs nuclear by a factor of more than 13 to 1.
• Australia’s moratorium on nuclear, lengthy projected development timelines, high costs, lack of expertise, and strong public and policy preference for renewables mean nuclear is unlikely to play a significant role in filling the gap left by the country’s planned coal phaseout by 2038.

Limiting warming to 1.5°C is the internationally recognized target of the Paris Agreement, as reaffirmed at recent UN climate summits. However, scientific assessments indicate that this threshold is likely to be surpassed within the next three years, underscoring the urgent need for rapid decarbonization. In this context, the approaching target breach is driving a broad shift away from fossil fuels, and nuclear energy has been reassessed as a potential low-carbon power option. Nuclear power, although not classified as renewable, has seen increased policy support and investment in recent years. COP28 and COP29 formally recognized its potential role, and 31 countries pledged to triple global nuclear capacity by 2050.

The comprehensive, citation-based data in GEM’s Global Nuclear Power Tracker (GNPT) monitors not only operational nuclear plants but also uniquely maps the full development pipeline, including cancelled projects. Often overlooked in other datasets, nuclear project cancellations account for 38% of all capacity ever proposed — about 566 GW, equivalent to nearly 120% of India’s entire power generation capacity from all sources. This briefing focuses on Europe, where nuclear infrastructure is extensive but aging, and Australia, where nuclear power has been discussed, but not yet deployed. In both jurisdictions, the GNPT indicates that new nuclear deployment is not a viable approach to meet climate targets.

Europe: wind and solar plans outpacing nuclear fourteen to one

Nuclear energy’s role in European decarbonization is limited by aging infrastructure, extended construction timelines, escalating costs, and strong competition from renewables. Of all nuclear capacity ever planned for Europe, two-fifths of it has either been cancelled (25%) or retired (15%), while only 2% is currently under construction. European cancellations alone total 112 GW of capacity, exceeding the operating nuclear capacity of any single country worldwide. GNPT data reveal that nuclear projects consistently face high risks of delay, cost overruns, and abandonment. For example, unit 3 of Finland’s Olkiluoto project required 17 years to complete, while unit 4 was cancelled in 2015. Most projects now under development are not expected to begin operation until the next decade, negating their potential contribution to the 1.5°C climate target. In contrast, solar and wind power have already demonstrated rapid scalable deployment and measurable emissions reductions, offering near-term climate benefits.

Figure 1

GEM’s GNPT shows that as of September 2025, Europe operates 157 gigawatts (GW) of nuclear capacity, over 90% of which comes from reactors more than 35 years old. Retirements are steadily reducing total operating capacity. In France, the continent’s largest nuclear operator, generation has declined due to maintenance challenges and unplanned outages, including a record heatwave in July 2025 that disrupted reactor cooling. Compared to 2005, French nuclear output was 16% lower in 2024, even after the addition of its first new unit in nearly two decades. EU-wide, nuclear’s share of electricity generation fell from 25% in 2005 to under 20% in 2024. Of the 9.3 GW of new European nuclear capacity under construction, GEM data show that most is intended to replace retiring units rather than expand total capacity.

Recent European reactor projects such as Finland’s Olkiluoto 3, France’s Flamanville 3, and the UK’s Hinkley Point C have experienced delays exceeding ten years and steep cost overruns. All employ the European Pressurized Reactor (EPR) design, whose first-of-a-kind complexity and lack of standardized construction methods have led to inefficient implementation. Efforts to develop SMRs are underway in multiple European countries including the UK and France, but no commercial SMRs are yet in operation and first deployments are unlikely before the early 2030s due to regulatory, cost, and public acceptance barriers.

In contrast, renewable deployment continues at scale. GEM’s Global Integrated Power Tracker indicates that over 600 GW of wind and utility-scale solar capacity is in pre-construction or construction across Europe, which together is over fourteen times that of nuclear. Even when accounting for the higher capacity factors of nuclear generation, planned wind and solar additions are expected to provide a substantially greater contribution to decarbonization. Much of this renewable capacity is expected to be operational well before new nuclear projects, due to renewable project lead times typically ranging from one to four years, compared to a decade or more for nuclear. Within the EU specifically, in mid-2025, total solar generation (22.1%) has already surpassed nuclear (21.8%) for the first time. Battery storage, driven by declining costs, is on track to expand from 22 GWh in 2024 to about 120 GWh by 2029, supporting deeper renewables integration. At the same time, pumped-storage hydropower remains a cornerstone of large-scale energy storage capacity.

Figure 2

Australia’s coal phaseout by 2038 makes nuclear timeline infeasible

Australia is another major economy where nuclear power is unlikely to contribute to emissions reduction goals in the next one to two decades despite recent calls by some political stakeholders to revisit nuclear plans. The country’s longstanding moratorium on nuclear energy, reflected in GEM’s GNPT as a total absence of operational or prospective facilities, underscores nuclear’s limited potential as a near-term decarbonization option, especially when contrasted with the country’s robust expansion of wind and solar capacity.

Australia plans to retire its entire coal-fired power fleet — which currently supplies around half of the country’s electricity — by 2038. This transition will necessitate the deployment of fast, reliable, and cost-effective replacement energy sources within the next thirteen years. GEM data show that new nuclear reactors have historically averaged just under eight years from the start of construction to completion since the mid-1960s, excluding pre-construction periods and cancelled projects. The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) estimates that construction timelines for nuclear plants in Australia are likely to be at least five years longer than the global average, resulting in an expected construction period of approximately thirteen years from groundbreaking to commissioning.

Figure 3

To achieve operational status by 2038, new nuclear projects would therefore need to begin construction before the end of this year. When factoring in the extensive pre-construction phases, which often span multiple years, the feasibility of introducing new nuclear capacity in Australia within the required timeframe to replace retiring coal-fired power plants becomes extremely unlikely.

Nuclear also remains one of the highest-cost forms of electricity generation per megawatt-hour, with delays and cancellations often transferring financial risk to taxpayers. Compounding these problems are Australia’s lack of a nuclear-trained workforce and absence of regulatory frameworks for safe and timely project delivery. Public sentiment and policy further challenge nuclear’s prospects. Most Australians supportmaintaining the current moratorium, as reaffirmed in recent parliamentary inquiries, and national energy policy prioritizes wind, solar, and storage. In the last ten years, Australia has added over 21 GW of new wind and utility-scale solar capacity, and the government target of 43% emissions reduction by 2030 is widely considered achievable through sustained deployment of wind, solar, and storage, which remain less expensive and faster to scale than nuclear.

Conclusion

The high costs and long timelines of new nuclear power plants severely limit any impact on near-term decarbonization goals. Wind and solar are achieving rapid scale and greater cost-effectiveness, making them central to immediate emissions reductions required for the 1.5°C pathway. SMRs remain commercially unproven, and current risks and deployment rates for nuclear overall are insufficient for 2030 climate targets. Robust decarbonization and successful action toward reaching emissions reductions will require technology-neutral, system-level planning, including a realistic evaluation of nuclear’s proposed role.

About the Global Nuclear Power Tracker

The Global Nuclear Power Tracker (GNPT) is a worldwide dataset of nuclear power facilities. The GNPT catalogs every nuclear power plant unit of any capacity and of any status, including operating, announced, pre-construction, under construction, shelved, cancelled, mothballed, or retired.

Media Contact

Joe Bernardi

Project Manager, Global Nuclear Power Tracker

joe.bernardi@globalenergymonitor.org

The post Nuclear outpaced fourteen to one by wind and solar in Europe appeared first on Global Energy Monitor.

China is advancing a nearly 1.3 terawatt (TW) pipeline of utility-scale solar and wind capacity, leading the global effort in renewable energy buildout. This is in addition to China’s already operating 1.4 TW of solar and wind capacity, nearly 10% of which (141 gigawatts (GW)) came online in 2024. Though only a small portion of China’s overall renewable capacity, China’s offshore wind fleet contributes over 50% of the overall offshore wind capacity in construction worldwide. However, China is not immune to the challenges of this new market, as development of offshore wind in China has slowed in recent years. In order for this technology to advance, China has an opportunity to move from its provincial development approach to one that provides stable and market-specific national policies.

• China is fast-tracking a 1.3 TW pipeline of utility-scale solar and wind projects. Of this, 510 GW is already under construction, primed to be added to China’s 1.4 TW solar and wind capacity already in operation.
• As of March 2025, China has emerged as the world’s offshore wind powerhouse — growing from under 5 GW in 2018 to 42.7 GW in 2025 (50% of global capacity).
• Offshore wind could play a role in decarbonizing China’s coastal provinces, but fossil fuels stand in the way. 
• China’s offshore wind fleet shows promising expansion as technology and development progress, but international policies can provide valuable insights for national strategies to ensure market stabilization. 

China has over 1.3 TW of planned solar and wind capacity

China leads global utility-scale solar capacity for projects in announced, pre-construction, and construction phases. According to Global Energy Monitor’s Global Solar Power Tracker, China has over 709 GW¹ of prospective solar capacity, representing over one-third of planned solar capacity worldwide in 2025. These projects could generate approximately 1,100 terawatt hours (TWh) of electricity per year — equivalent to roughly 122% of Japan’s 2023 electricity consumption (909 TWh). About 161 GW (23%) of prospective capacity is in announced phases, while 261 GW (37%) is in pre-construction phases. China’s construction capacity exceeds 40%, as 287 GW has broken ground. This is roughly four times the global average for capacity under construction (9%).

Figure 1

China’s wind capacity follows a similar rate of growth as solar, according to Global Energy Monitor’s Global Wind Power Tracker, with over 590 GW in prospective phases — nearly 530 GW of onshore capacity and 63 GW of offshore capacity. As of July 2025, 223 GW (37%) of this prospective capacity is under construction, almost four times the combined under-construction capacity of the rest of the world. If these projects become operational, they could generate roughly 1,260 TWh of electricity per year, enough to power about 120 million United States households. Ultimately, China’s prospective capacity accounts for about one-third of total global wind capacity in development.

Geographically, Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia host 40% (523 GW) of China’s prospective capacity. Of this, nearly 212 GW — 31% of global utility-scale solar and wind under construction — is found in these autonomous regions. This rapid buildout underscores China’s drive to accelerate its renewable energy development, with at least 205 GW of new capacity slated to come online in China by this year’s end, though the total capacity is expected to be even higher.

Figure 2

China’s 1.4 TW operating solar and wind outstrips thermal power 

In Q1 2025, China’s wind and solar capacity surpassed its thermal (coal and gas) capacity for the first time, supplying nearly 23% of the country’s total electricity consumed, up from roughly 18% in Q1 of 2024, according to the National Energy Administration (NEA). Increased output from solar, wind, and other non-fossil energy also met China’s additional electricity demands in Q1 2025. China’s solar and wind operating capacity has soared to 1.4 TW and now accounts for 44% of the world’s operating utility-scale solar and wind capacity, more than the combined total of the European Union, United States, and India.

As of May 2025, China has installed 1,080 GW of solar capacity, with May seeing China’s  largest monthly increase in operating capacity. China’s annual solar additions jumped from 55 GW in 2021 to 88 GW in 2022 (+60%), surged to 216 GW in 2023 (+145%), and then reached 278 GW in 2024 (+29%). Of the 278 GW added capacity, 57% (159 GW) came from centralized installations and 43% (118 GW) came from distributed systems. Included in 2024 additions is the world’s largest single-site photovoltaic plant — the 3.5 GW Midong Solar Farm, located in Xinjiang Autonomous Region — which was connected to the grid in June 2024. Once fully operational, the solar project Midong is expected to generate nearly 6.1 TWh per year, nearly matching the annual electricity demand of Luxembourg in 2023.

Figure 3

Wind power has followed a similarly rapid trajectory. As of May 2025, China added 46 GW of new wind capacity for the year, bringing the total to 570 GW of operating capacity. A notable project is the Omattingga Wind Farm in Tibet, a 100 megawatt (MW) installation that is the world’s highest-altitude wind farm. At 4,650 meters high, it produces about 200 gigawatt hours (GWh) annually.

Figure 4

Offshore wind development ramping up in China

China’s coastal provinces² are home to many of China’s major megacities and industrial hubs, and while they contribute 25% and 30% of the nation’s solar and wind capacity, respectively, they consume nearly half of the nation’s electricity. Though offshore wind represents only about 9% of China’s total wind power capacity, it is gaining traction as these provinces pursue ambitious decarbonization targets. China has already begun tapping into this potential, but further progress will require a strategic and coordinated nationwide approach to fully scale offshore wind as a pillar of coastal decarbonization.

Figure 5

Figure 6

China has established itself as the global leader in offshore wind through rapid and large-scale development. In 2024, China added 4.4 GW of offshore wind capacity, accounting for nearly 55% of all global additions that year. China’s offshore wind capacity grew from less than 5 GW in 2018 to 42.7 GW by March 2025. This represents a sustained compound annual growth rate of 41% over the past five years, two times the global average. Among China’s iconic projects is the 1.7 GW Yangjiang Shaba III complex in the South China Sea, China’s largest deep-sea wind farm. This project alone accounts for nearly 10% of Guangdong Province’s total operational offshore wind capacity.

This growth is enabled by the country’s vast offshore wind potential (estimated at 1,400 GW), its proximity to eastern coastal demand centers, and advances in domestic offshore wind technologies. As of February 2025, China had 67 GW of offshore wind projects in the development pipeline, 41% (28 GW) of which is under construction — a stark comparison to the global average of 2% under construction outside of China.

Figure 7

If China grows its offshore wind capacity, the technology could help displace coal and cut carbon emissions. Guangdong province’s 11.4 GW offshore wind fleet has the potential to avoid roughly 23 million tonnes of CO₂ each year if fully operational — equivalent to burning 8.7 million tonnes of standard coal. Yet offshore wind’s rollout must compete against continued development of gas and coal, which remains prominent in the region, as 13.5 GW of gas power capacity and 23 GW of coal are planned for commissioning by 2027 in Guangdong province alone. Guangdong is not the only coastal province with offshore wind development running in parallel with its fossil fuel capacity. While offshore wind’s capacity to deliver stable electricity makes it particularly well-suited for decarbonizing China’s heavy industries, such as steel and petrochemical manufacturing concentrated along the east coast Bohai Rim, Yangtze River Delta, and Pearl River Delta, it continues to face challenges as coal and gas are still on the rise across China.

China’s coastal provinces collectively outlined a total offshore wind capacity target of 52 GW during the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021–2025). As of February 2025, China’s operational offshore wind fleet totaled 41 GW — meeting nearly 80% of China’s combined provincial goal. Nearly 10 GW of the 11 GW needed to bridge the gap is expected to become operational by the end of 2025. 

In striving to meet their 14th Five-Year Plan offshore wind targets, each coastal province has pursued its own development pathway. Among them, Jiangsu and Guangdong stand out as national leaders, with 12.6 GW and 11.4 GW of installed offshore wind capacity respectively, accounting for 55% of the country’s total offshore capacity.

Jiangsu was one of the earliest provinces to scale up offshore wind capacity, thanks to favorable shallow-water conditions in the Yellow Sea and early development of intertidal and nearshore zones dedicated to offshore wind development. These conditions made way for the growth of the country’s largest offshore wind supply chain hub, with Yancheng City alone hosting over 47 wind equipment manufacturers. Today, Jiangsu’s newest fleet of offshore wind projects is being pushed into deeper waters as the result of already established offshore wind projects in shallow waters.

Guangdong has emerged as China’s fastest-growing offshore wind market. The province is also home to Mingyang’s OceanX, the world’s largest-capacity floating platform. Unlike Jiangsu’s shallow seabed, Guangdong’s deep waters require jacket foundations or floating structures capable of withstanding frequent typhoons that ultimately raise engineering demands, as turbines need reinforced, storm-resistant designs. China’s floating wind sector has been proactively addressing these challenges, with the development of typhoon-ready designs to face extreme weather conditions. To tame high costs, Guangdong approved large-scale projects (500–800 MW) to capture economies of scale and encourage turbine upscaling, with local original equipment manufacturers like Mingyang rolling out 10–18 MW models to boost energy yield per foundation.

China is rapidly advancing floating wind technology to tap deepwater resources. As of Q1 2025, almost 40 MW is operational across five pilot projects. The first phase (200 MW) of a 1,000 MW Hainan Wanning floating offshore wind farm is scheduled for completion by the end of 2025. China also leads in developing flagship offshore turbines. In June 2024, Goldwind became the first company to commercialize a 16 MW unit at Zhangpu-Liuao Phase 2. Later that year, Dongfang Electric unveiled a 26 MW design with a 310-meter rotor.

China’s coastal provinces are pioneering ways to decarbonize heavy industry and energy systems powered by offshore wind. One major decarbonization pathway is producing green hydrogen from offshore wind. Pilot projects are underway in Fujian, Guangdong, and Shandong, with robust central policy support. Offshore wind is also being utilized for direct electrification of energy‐intensive industries. In Guangdong, for example, a 500 MW offshore wind farm in the South China Sea, slated to connect in late 2025, will deliver 100% renewable power to Germany-based company BASF’s Zhanjiang Verbund chemical complex. In June 2025, Shanghai Lingang announced the world’s first commercial underwater data center powered by offshore wind, sourcing over 90% of its energy from sea-based turbines.

While China remains committed to innovation in offshore wind, the sector faces a key domestic challenge following the phaseout of national subsidies in 2021. At the end of 2021, China phased out its national feed-in tariffs (FiTs), which had guaranteed developers premium rates and supported an Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of roughly 10%. In the rush to meet the subsidy deadline, China installed a record 16.6 GW in 2021, only to see additions drop to about 6.5 GW in 2022. To soften the blow, provinces such as Guangdong, Shandong, and Zhejiang introduced modest local incentives in 2022, including both capacity-based subsidies and tariff-based subsidies.

China’s offshore wind future — Strategic anchors & policy blueprint

China’s offshore wind sector is entering a critical phase of development, requiring a coordinated policy framework that balances industrial scaling, environmental sustainability, and technological advancement. Drawing from international markets, China has the opportunity to refine its approach to offshore wind development and enhance the technology’s long-term competitiveness with fossil fuels. By combining global best practices with domestic policy needs, China can create a stable and coordinated approach to fully scale offshore wind as a pillar of coastal decarbonization.

Adjustments to the project bidding structure could support sustainable sector growth. A hybrid auction mechanism that incorporates both price and technical criteria, such as ecological impact mitigation (e.g., sediment stabilization, noise-reducing foundations), grid integration readiness, and technology advancement (e.g., hydrogen generation, black-start capabilities) can incentivize innovation. Such an approach strengthens the market signals for high-quality projects while reinforcing the long-term resilience and sustainability of the sector. International models like the Netherlands’ zero-subsidy auction system, which prioritizes technological ingenuity through non-price criteria and the United Kingdom’s Contract for Difference (CfD) mechanism, which guarantees long-term price stability by indexing payments to wholesale electricity prices, offer complementary lessons. The Dutch model drives down levelized costs by fostering competition in efficiency gains, and the CfD system mitigates financing risks through 15-year revenue certainty, which can be critical for China’s capital-intensive deepwater projects. China could structure auction criteria to reflect regional priorities, allocating greater emphasis to technical merits in ecologically sensitive zones and prioritizing price competitiveness in mature industrial clusters. This dynamic calibration would reward projects that align with national decarbonization targets while maintaining market-driven efficiency.

Robust spatial planning and ecological safeguards are essential to balancing offshore wind expansion with marine conservation. In December 2024, China announced depth and distance requirements, as well as ecological regulations for new offshore wind projects. Centralized marine spatial planning can play a pivotal role in this transition by identifying suitable development zones based on wind resource availability, ecological sensitivity, and proximity to grid infrastructure. Linking project development to habitat restoration efforts, similar to Germany’s biodiversity compensation models, can align offshore wind expansion with marine conservation goals. This integrated approach helps to ensure that site selection and project development are both environmentally responsible and strategically aligned with national priorities.

Support for industrial-academic collaboration may accelerate technology development, particularly in areas such as typhoon-resilient floating platforms and AI-powered predictive maintenance. Partnerships involving major developers and research institutions, such as state-owned enterprises China Three Gorges Corporation and State Power Investment Corporation, and private wind turbine manufacturer MingYang Smart Energy, have the potential to strengthen innovation ecosystems. These collaborations can help bridge research and commercialization, positioning China at the forefront of offshore wind innovation globally.

About the Solar and Wind Trackers

The Global Solar Power Tracker is a worldwide dataset of utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) and solar thermal facilities. It covers all operating solar farm phases with capacities of 1 megawatt (MW) or more and all announced, pre-construction, construction, and shelved projects with capacities greater than 20 MW. The Global Wind Power Tracker is a worldwide dataset of utility-scale, on- and offshore wind facilities. It includes wind farm phases with capacities of 10 megawatts (MW) or more.

About Global Energy Monitor

Global Energy Monitor (GEM) develops and shares information in support of the worldwide movement for clean energy. By studying the evolving international energy landscape and creating databases, reports, and interactive tools that enhance understanding, GEM seeks to build an open guide to the world’s energy system. Follow us at www.globalenergymonitor.org, on Twitter/X @GlobalEnergyMon, and Bluesky @globalenergymon.bsky.social.

Media Contact

Mengqi Zhang

Researcher

mengqi.zhang@globalenergymonitor.org

The post China’s solar and onshore wind capacity reaches new heights, while offshore wind shows promise appeared first on Global Energy Monitor.

Key points

• Policies from both the Biden and Trump administrations as well as bipartisan support have created a quicker path to construction for geothermal energy, benefitting more than 4 GW of units in development and aligning with the 2030 Project Liftoff goal of 5GW.
• Robust energy policy in the U.S. necessitates the rapid rollout of the 218.4 GW of prospective capacity for wind and utility-scale solar with geothermal playing a peaker plant role, particularly with heavy energy users like artificial intelligence data centers. 
• Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) technology is becoming increasingly affordable and construction time is decreasing, making it a competitive alternative to the oil and gas industry. There are currently more than 2 GW of EGS power plants in development in the U.S.

Introduction

While the Trump administration has pushed aside renewables like solar and wind, jeopardizing the status of projects in development, geothermal has managed to escape green energy criticism, and now finds itself primed  for explosive growth. Technological advances in geothermal technology — particularly with Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) — have also lowered the cost and construction time of geothermal projects. Bipartisan support for the technology, rapid technological advancements, and increasing investments have put geothermal energy into a position to grow rapidly during the next four years, with 1.16 gigawatts (GW) anticipated to come online by 2028, according to Global Energy Monitor’s Global Geothermal Power Tracker. 

Chris Wright, the new U.S. Secretary of Energy under the Trump administration, signed his first Secretarial Order in early February 2025 calling to “Unleash [the] Golden Era of American Energy Dominance,” which explicitly states support for geothermal energy and heating. Geothermal is on the path to become an important renewable energy source in the U.S.’s energy mix, especially during an artificial intelligence arms race that necessitates 24/7 power availability. Under a Trump 2.0 administration where renewable energy has been pushed to the wayside, geothermal energy has managed to fly under the radar and may actually benefit from a “drill, baby, drill” attitude if it’s not merely an excuse  to subsidize the oil and gas industry.

However, a truly robust energy policy focused on energy independence and security would include the most dominant renewable technologies in the industry today — wind and solar — which could add an additional 122 GW to the U.S. energy matrix by the end of President Trump’s term if these technologies receive adequate support instead of being stonewalled.

The growth of geothermal gains bipartisan support

Geothermal is an industry known for its slow growth, with only 382 megawatts (MW) coming onto the grid worldwide in 2024. As of 2025, the United States accounts for 23% of global geothermal capacity and is the leader in global operating capacity with 3.7 GW. The 2025 update of the Global Geothermal Power Tracker shows 223 units in development, totalling more than 15 GW of capacity, nearly doubling the current global geothermal operating capacity of 16 GW across 480 units. 

Research and development funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has worked to prove market opportunity for geothermal power, and DOE aims to reach 5 GW of capacity by 2030 in the first stage of its Liftoff program¹, followed by a 2050 goal of 90 GW of geothermal power. The DOE also aims to slash geothermal’s cost per megawatt hour by 90% by 2035 through the Enhanced Geothermal Shot² initiative.

Bipartisan support for geothermal energy has allowed policies to be put in place which expedite the process of getting a geothermal power plant online. In January 2025, the Inflation Reduction Act was expanded to cover geothermal power through investment and production tax credits. Also in January 2025, the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) authorized the new categorical exclusion that simplifies the permitting of geothermal projects in the United States, potentially saving up to a year of time for a project in development. As of February 2025, the Department of the Interior is proposing to revise the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) to obtain an additional categorical exclusion for geothermal energy. 

It remains unclear how the culling of federal employees undertaken by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) will impact the process of getting geothermal power plants online. The erratic nature of the Trump administration makes long-term geothermal plans hard to guarantee, as the goals of the DOGE team change daily. Investors may also be scared off by a volatile economy, social unrest, and rising international tension.

Figure 1

Bipartisan support will continue to be a key element of the exponential growth of geothermal energy in the coming years. President Trump stated in a January 2025 energy emergency declaration that geothermal is important for the diversification of the U.S. energy supply and the administration’s official view — despite it being false — is that geothermal is more “economically viable than wind or solar.” Geothermal energy is not mentioned in Project 2025, which could be interpreted as further evidence of support by the Trump administration. Conversely, the nearly 1,300 prospective wind and utility-scale solar phases are specifically threatened in Project 2025. According to GEM’s March 2025 data release, 1.16 GW of geothermal capacity could come online by the end of Trump’s current term in office. There are also eight geothermal units which are inferred to be cancelled (based on a lack of updates) that could be revived by the friendliness of the administration.

Technological advancements in the geothermal industry

Geothermal can be a viable alternative to gas peaker plants, thereby increasing grid integration of wind and solar’s intermittent power to further bring down emissions. Having geothermal as a dispatchable power source could take the place of costly gas peaker plants and would be a supplement  to batteries. 

A key player in Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) is Fervo Energy, which has a successful pilot project operating in Nevada and 2.1 GW of projects in development; the company is also demonstrating how its wells can be used as giant underground batteries. Fervo has received funding from the U.S. Department of Energy through its Renewable Energy Research and Development program and was notably invested in by Secretary Wright’s company, Liberty Energy, while he was CEO. Fervo Energy is tied for the most prospective megawatts of geothermal capacity worldwide as of March 2025 and accounts for half of the 4.3 GW of U.S. geothermal in development. With a 70% reduction in drilling time per well and a savings of US$5 million per well gained from fine-tuning its technologies, it is likely that Fervo will continue to rapidly expand its portfolio in the United States. If investments in the 85 GW of oil- and gas-fired capacity in development in the United States were shifted to support geothermal development, investors would be funding projects better for the planet.

Figure 2

If geothermal continues to receive support from the Trump administration, stakeholders in the United States can use resources such as the Geothermal Exploration Opportunities Map tool from Project Innerspace to understand where the best opportunities for geothermal development in their area of interest are. As resources for understanding geothermal are made more readily available to the public and green energy investors take note of the friendliness towards geothermal, EGS is likely to see increased investment and rapid deployment.

With exclusions for geothermal energy already being made by the federal government and the Department of Energy granting six $5 million grants to tackle barriers to geothermal development, it is likely the geothermal lease auctions by the BLM taking place during 2025 in Alaska, Nevada, and Utah will see lots of interest. In December 2024, seven parcels were sold during a geothermal lease sale in New Mexico. The U.S. Department of Defense has pre-approved companies to develop utility-scale geothermal projects at DoD installations.

Geothermal energy also stands out as a green energy source to assist the United States in its goal of competing in the AI arms race, which presently has electrical demand rising to meet data centers’ large electricity needs. The continuous energy that geothermal provides makes it a key asset. The support of green geothermal power to meet data center demands in lieu of gas-fired power plants, which are becoming more expensive and slower to deploy, could protect the United States from increased emissions while still providing a constant source of scalable power.

A March 2025 report details how data center electrical demands could largely be met “economically” by geothermal power in the 2030s if such power plants are constructed strategically near data centers. While big tech companies are rarely the outright owners of geothermal power plants, power purchasing agreements (PPAs) between companies to help power data centers — such as by Meta (partnering with Sage Geosystems) and Google — will likely drive demand for these plants to be built, particularly if tech CEOs continue to have President Trump’s ear. With wind and solar threatened, companies striving to meet consumer demands that their data centers be run on green energy will still have geothermal power to turn to and may feel secure upon seeing the success of pilot projects such as Fervo’s Project Red geothermal power plant, which serves Google-owned data centers in Nevada. Energy Secretary Wright stated in March 2025 that a strong geothermal industry “could better energize our country, [and] improve the quality of life for everyone. It could help enable AI, manufacturing, reshoring and stop the rise of our electricity prices.”

It’s unclear how the Trump administration (and Elon Musk’s influence through DOGE) will impact the workflow of new geothermal energy projects seeking authorization. If critical linchpins in the permitting process have been fired, it won’t matter how much investment begins to pour into geothermal projects or how many exclusions these projects receive to speed up processing. This dismantling has the potential to stunt the growth needed by states like Texas that are increasing data centers and cryptocurrency mining and predict a doubling of energy demand by 2030. 

Technological breakthroughs in the geothermal industry continue to happen, notably with EGS technology which has undergone exponential growth in recent years, despite being studied since the 1970s. The advancements are largely due to the hydraulic fracturing techniques which have been fine tuned by the oil and gas industry. This “human-made” geothermal removes the geological restrictions confining conventional geothermal to permeable rocks with water sources and allows for expansive growth throughout the United States. There are risks associated with EGS, such as earthquakes, air and water pollution, and land subsidence.Because the technology’s success is dependent on managing associated risks, EGS technology has benefited from the lessons learned by oil and gas drilling. The oil and gas industries have many synergies with geothermal in both their workforce and the technologies that can be utilized for the geothermal energy rollout. By accessing deeper heat reservoirs through EGS to create geothermal energy, developers can look outside of traditional geographic areas, with underground heat close to the surface, to develop geothermal power plants across the United States. 

The advancements of EGS technology are good news for the clean energy movement in the United States, and by 2030, the cost per megawatt-hour (MWh) could be competitive with conventional power sources. While not under the scope of the Global Geothermal Power Tracker, heating through networked geothermal, domestic lithium production through geothermal brines, and direct use applications are also likely to garner bipartisan support and investment. These additional uses of geothermal would address Chris Wright’s unfounded concerns about losing the “myriad” uses of gas.

Geothermal as a complement to wind and solar

Historically, not all planned projects become operational on time. Existing limitations in the physical grid, permitting bottlenecks, and lack of financial mechanisms are often reasons for low completion rates. GEM data included 185 GW of solar and wind farms that were under construction as of December 2023 and designated to become operational before the end of 2024. Globally, only 59% of these projects started producing electricity on time.

Figure 3

About the Global Geothermal Power Tracker

The Global Geothermal Power Tracker (GGPT) is a worldwide dataset of geothermal power facilities. The GGPT includes geothermal power plant units with capacities of 1 megawatt (MW) or more.

About Global Energy Monitor

Global Energy Monitor (GEM) develops and shares information in support of the worldwide movement for clean energy. By studying the evolving international energy landscape and creating databases, reports, and interactive tools that enhance understanding, GEM seeks to build an open guide to the world’s energy system. Follow us at www.globalenergymonitor.org, X @GlobalEnergyMon, and Bluesky @globalenergymon.bsky.social.

Media Contact

Sophia Bauer

Project Manager, Global Geothermal Power Tracker

sophia.bauer@globalenergymonitor.org

The post Trump administration’s policies support rapid growth of geothermal power in the United States with 1.2 GW planned by end of term appeared first on Global Energy Monitor.

Key Takeways

• Prospective utility-scale solar and wind capacity — projects that have been announced or are in the pre-construction and construction phases — grew by over 20% globally in 2024 from 3.6 terawatts (TW) to 4.4 TW, only half of what is needed for global tripling renewable goals.
• Outside of China and the Group of 7 (G7) rich nations, only half of solar and wind projects designated to come online in 2024 were actually completed on time. 
• Global operating capacity increased by 14% in 2024, as at least 240 gigawatts (GW) of utility-scale solar and wind came online.
• Despite their 45% share of global gross domestic product (GDP), G7 countries are building only 10% of planned solar and wind projects.

Prospective solar and wind capacity grew by over 20% in 2024

During 2024, prospective solar and wind capacity grew by over 20% from 3.6 terawatts (TW) to 4.4 TW¹, according to new data from Global Energy Monitor (GEM). GEM’s Global Solar Power Tracker and Global Wind Power Tracker include all projects that have been announced, entered pre-construction, or are currently under construction for solar capacity over 1 megawatts (MW) and utility-scale wind capacity over 10 MW. Utility-scale solar and wind are largely equal in their prospective development, with 2 TW and 2.5 TW respectively. However, solar photovoltaic (PV) is anticipated to account for 80% of global renewable energy capacity growth until 2030, due to the expanding distributed solar market and the construction of new large-scale projects.

Despite the surge in prospective capacity, even if the entirety of the 4.5 TW were to become operational by 2030, GEM finds that it would still not be enough to reach the goal of tripling renewables capacity by 2030 set at COP28, which requires roughly 9 TW of wind and solar to be built. Moreover, the construction rates of solar and wind outside of China remain low, with only 7% of prospective capacity (226 gigawatts (GW)) currently under construction, jeopardizing the pace and scale necessary for renewables implementation.

Figure 1

China has the largest prospective capacity for both utility-scale solar and wind, with over 1.3 TW. Over one-third of these planned projects (36%) are already under construction, compared to the global average elsewhere of 7%. Meanwhile, India, with the world’s fifth-largest GDP and 30% of projects in construction, targets adding nearly 130 GW of prospective utility-scale solar and wind capacity in the upcoming years, and 35 GW of these additions will be connected to the grid by March 2025.

Figure 2

On-time solar and wind project completion rates lag

Historically, not all planned projects become operational on time. Existing limitations in the physical grid, permitting bottlenecks, and lack of financial mechanisms are often reasons for low completion rates. GEM data included 185 GW of solar and wind farms that were under construction as of December 2023 and designated to become operational before the end of 2024. Globally, only 59% of these projects started producing electricity on time.

Figure 3

A disparity exists in completion rates across G7 countries,² China, and the rest of the world. About 76% of solar and wind projects in G7 countries became operational within the originally planned time frame. This figure declines to 55% in China and further drops to 52% in other non-G7 countries. Moreover, 10% of the projects in other non-G7 countries were shelved in 2024 instead of becoming operational, whereas, this number is negligible in G7 countries and China. This means that only half the planned solar and wind capacity came online on time outside China and the G7, while one-tenth of this capacity was suspended.

Although the permitting procedures for solar and wind farms differ in some countries, it is safe to assume projects under construction already secured land rights, permits, and grid interconnection pre-approvals before the beginning of construction. This highlights the significance of mobilizing public and private investments in developing economies to complete planned renewable projects on time.

Correspondingly, the final days of COP29 were dominated by global climate finance discussions. Countries were encouraged to submit more ambitious, investable, and equitable nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems. Most of these and other discussions in the international arena focus on total operating and planned capacity, while low project completion rates, and potential reasons behind them, are overlooked.

At least 240 GW of utility-scale solar and wind capacity became operational in 2024

The February 2025 release of the Global Solar Power Tracker and the Global Wind Power Tracker shows at least 240 GW of utility-scale solar and wind became operational in 2024.³ This is a lower figure than the International Energy Agency’s earlier forecast (378 GW), as it does not include projects for which the start year is unknown.

China has the largest operating capacity for utility-scale solar and wind. GEM has tracked at least 891 GW of operating utility-scale solar and wind capacity in China. China officially installed 277 GW of utility and distributed solar and 80 GW of wind in 2024, and GEM has tracked 136 GW of those utility-scale solar and wind installations to the asset level.

In the first seven months of 2024, solar and wind in the United States produced more energy than coal, a first for the country. By the end of 2024, the United States had 274 GW of operating solar and wind capacity. India has added at least 10 GW of new solar capacity annually since 2021 and has an operating capacity of solar and wind above 109 GW, as of December 2024.

Figure 4

The wealthiest nations aren’t building their fair share of solar and wind projects

China is not only leading the world in operating projects but it also plans to build more than two-thirds (70%) of all utility-scale solar and wind projects in the coming years. Comparing the share of global GDP and under-construction projects for G7, China, and the rest of the world illustrates an asymmetry for utility-scale solar and wind projects. G7 countries own about 45% of global GDP but only plan to build 10% of global solar and wind projects. From another perspective, G7 countries have half the world’s wealth and are constructing the same amount of wind and solar power — about 59 GW — as the countries that make up the bottom quarter of GDP.

Figure 5

Political barriers and implementation disincentives could further reduce G7 countries’ contribution to renewables in the upcoming years. In January 2025, the Trump administration issued an executive action to suspend new offshore wind leasing, which would halt about 5 GW offshore wind projects currently under construction. However, the International Renewable Energy Agency has called for G7 countries to increase their solar and wind targets to comply with the 1.5°C pathway targets.

It should be noted that in addition to having financial resources to invest in solar and wind energy, resource potential for solar and wind and other technical factors are considered when locating these facilities. From an energy democratization and just energy transition viewpoint, planning for a larger share of global renewables to be built in developing countries is favorable. 

However, non-G7 countries, excluding China, are set to build only one-fifth of the global solar and wind projects in the upcoming years.

About The Global Solar And Wind Trackers

The Global Solar Power Tracker is a worldwide dataset of utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) and solar thermal facilities. It covers all operating solar farm phases with capacities of 1 megawatt (MW) or more and all announced, pre-construction, construction, and shelved projects with capacities greater than 20 MW. The Global Wind Power Tracker is a worldwide dataset of utility-scale, on- and offshore wind facilities. It includes wind farm phases with capacities of 10 megawatts (MW) or more.

About Global Energy Monitor

Global Energy Monitor (GEM) develops and shares information in support of the worldwide movement for clean energy. By studying the evolving international energy landscape and creating databases, reports, and interactive tools that enhance understanding, GEM seeks to build an open guide to the world’s energy system. Follow us at www.globalenergymonitor.org and on Twitter/X @GlobalEnergyMon.

GEM data serves as a vital international reference point that is being used by agencies including: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, International Energy Agency, United Nations Environment Programme, U.S. Treasury Department and the World Bank. Furthermore, industry data providers such as Bloomberg Terminals and the Economist and academic institutions like University of Oxford and Harvard University draw on this data.

Media Contact

Diren Kocakuşak

Research Analyst

diren.kocakusak@globalenergymonitor.org

The post Wind and solar year in review 2024 appeared first on Global Energy Monitor.

The latest data in Global Energy Monitor’s Global Bioenergy Power Tracker (GBPT) shows that Japan has 3.8 gigawatts (GW) of woody bioenergy capacity projected across 59 units by 2026 and South Korea has 1.46 GW projected across 32 units by the same year. Through the Renewable Energy Certificates (REC) in South Korea and the Feed-in-Tariff (FiT) program in Japan, dedicated woody biomass burning units receive renewable subsidies based on the false premise that they are carbon neutral. But supply chain emissions — including logging, transportation to a processing plant, processing into wood chips or pellets, and additional transportation to the power plant — remain a serious concern. 

Those emissions are in addition to the carbon emissions from woody biomass itself, which can be 30% higher than coal burning emissions. Woody biomass must be burned in higher volumes than fossil fuels because of its lower energy density, particularly if the wood is wet and dirty, and the emissions increase as the volume combusted grows. A study from the Partnership for Policy Integrity (PFPI) found  burning woody biomass is worse than burning coal if a country is interested in reducing carbon dioxide emissions within the next 40 years. With a carbon debt payback period estimated between 44 and 104 years, both Japan and South Korea are continuing to invest in an energy which is not carbon neutral when burning woody biomass.

The combustion of woody biomass poses safety concerns for local communities with increased air pollution and the possibility of explosions, with specific hazards for power plant employees including exposure to fungi and bacteria especially when unloading wood chips used for fuel.

Japan and South Korea also have 16.7 GW of capacity across 55 units that co-fire bioenergy with coal being the primary fuel, according to GEM’s Global Coal Plant Tracker (GCPT). This is equivalent to 17.4% of the total operating capacity in those countries. In some cases, combustion units are retiring coal and converting entirely to woody biomass, such as Mikawa power station in Japan and Yongdong power station in South Korea, while other power stations are co-firing coal and woody biomass, such as Iwanuma Mill power station in Japan and Samchonpo power station in South Korea. With woody biomass burning power plants emitting 150% the CO2 of coal, neither Japan nor South Korea are taking steps to actually reducing their emissions. 

While South Korea has a 2050 coal phaseout date and Japan has yet to commit to a date, utilizing biomass co-firing could serve to lengthen the tail of coal burning in the countries. The continued subsidies also crowd out funding for truly renewable sources of energy like wind and solar and keep coal plants online.

Japan

The Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies (ISEP) reported that Japan was operating at 5.7% biomass generation in its energy mix, surpassing its 5% goal for 2030. The climate risks caused by the combustion of woody biomass in Japan have not slowed the influx of approved projects in the pipeline. As of September 2024, the GBPT captures 1.34 GW across 20 prospective units primarily burning woody biomass that Japan will be adding to its energy mix. The formula used by Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI) justifies the use of woody biomass for co-firing by falsely presenting coal units as more efficient and justifying the extension of their use.

Japan’s METI established its Feed-in-Tariff program in 2015. Under the FiT scheme, “power utility companies charge customers a fixed price for power from eligible renewable power generators for predetermined periods” once the plant is operational. Japan’s FiT scheme initially covered new biomass co-firing plants, helping to incentivize more coal burning. METI’s formula to determine coal plant efficiency deducts biomass inputs from those of coal, making co-firing coal plants appear more efficient than they are. Thirty-eight co-firing generators were certified to receive support for the 20 years of their FiT contracts. In April 2019, Japan removed co-firing plants from being eligible for the FiT program, because data collected after the program began showed that co-firing plants would be profitable without incentives. Still, the 38 new co-firing plants already approved for the 20-year FiT program will continue to receive support over the duration of their contracts.

In April 2022, the Japanese government introduced a mandatory greenhouse Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) for all new biomass plants — still not counting smokestack emissions — seeking a government subsidy through the FiT program. These plants are required to have a 50% life cycle emission reduction compared to average fossil fuel emissions up to 2030, then a 70% reduction after 2030. Those plants already under the government subsidy scheme, including those under construction, are exempt from making reductions but will still have to disclose their lifecycle emissions for their biomass power generation — such as manufacturing and transportation. If megabanks shift their sustainability policies to address the high carbon emissions and harm to forest ecosystems caused by woody biomass, there may be a slowdown in new combustion projects.

South Korea

Despite legal challenges in South Korea disputing the use of biomass as a “green” replacement for coal, South Korean biomass units continue to receive higher Renewable Energy Certificates weightings than either solar or onshore wind, contributing to the 385% increase in woody biomass burning power stations between 2015 (272.8 MW) and 2024 (1,324 MW) captured in the GBPT.

South Korea’s Ministry of Trade, Industry, and Energy (MOTIE) manages the country’s Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) and Renewable Energy Credits (RECs). Power utilities over 500 MW are required to meet the renewable mandate (13.5% in 2024 and 25% by 2030) through self-procurement or purchasing RECs. Renewable energy producers earn RECs which are weighted by energy source and facility. These weightings determine the profitability of renewable energy and, indirectly, grant subsidies to dedicated biomass facilities. Since 2015, South Korean biomass has received $3.7 billion USD worth of RECs. As of 2023, MOTIE grants biomass facilities at a higher rate than solar or onshore wind.

The national goal of increasing woody biomass burning for energy sixfold by 2050 is supported by low construction and operational costs for woody biomass plants, even though there are high financial and environmental fuel costs when compared to a truly renewable form of energy. As of September 2024, the GBPT captures 362 MW across five prospective units slated to primarily burn woody biomass in South Korea. The country’s future support for the use of wood pellets for biomass combustion between 2022–2036 through the 10th power plan, coupled with existing policy incentives, means it is unlikely that developer interest will shift from large-scale woody biomass operations. 

In July 2024, Seoul High Court ruled against a solar cooperative calling for MOTIE to remove the REC weightings for biomass power generation, closing the case without considering woody biomass-led climate impacts. As reported by Solutions Four Our Climate (SFOC), the subsidies that the South Korean government has given to the biomass industry via the RECs slow down coal plant closures and divert funding from potential solar and wind installations. Such installations could move South Korea closer to its 39.9 GW required for reaching 21.6% renewables by 2030 without having to use an accounting loophole to appear carbon neutral. The September 2024 ruling from South Korea’s constitutional court to set legally binding targets for greenhouse gas reductions between 2031–2049 is an opportunity to move away from both coal and woody biomass combustion.

The future of woody biomass combustion

According to data in GEM’s Global Integrated Power Tracker (GIPT), wind and utility-scale solar continue to grow within Japan and South Korea, but the misrepresentation of woody biomass combustion as renewable will continue to impact emissions and detract resources from increasing implementation of prospective wind and solar projects.

Not only is the combustion of woody biomass more expensive than utility-scale solar and wind, it’s more dangerous. At least twelve biomass plants in Japan have caught fire over the past five years putting employees and local communities at risk, with speculation that poor quality fuel is a cause of the explosions. As biomass burning increases, so will the demand for fuel, leading to further decreases in quality. 

Deforestation within South Korea and the countries that export wood pellets to both Japan and South Korea — including Canada, the United States, and Vietnam — should be factored into calculations on the true impact of large-scale woody biomass combustion. With utility-scale wind and solar as true renewable energy options that are also more affordable, government subsidies should not be spent on a technology with low financial and technical viability.

The post Woody biomass capacity grew more than sevenfold in the last decade in Japan and South Korea, despite doubts of profitability and sustainability appeared first on Global Energy Monitor.

China is approaching France in operational nuclear power capacity

China is emerging as a world leader in nuclear power, according to research from GEM’s Global Nuclear Power Tracker, which includes over 1,405 gigawatts (GW) of nuclear capacity from over 1,540 units worldwide. China’s total operational capacity of 58.1 GW is a close third behind France’s at 64.0 GW. Those two countries, plus the United States with its 102.5 GW in operation, account for well over half of the world’s operational nuclear capacity. 

China surpasses France by count of operational nuclear power units, with 58 to France’s 56. (However, the difference may be negligible as two of the 58 units in China are very small power-generating reactors whose purpose is primarily experimental.) China has consistently ranked above France in annual electricity generation from nuclear sources for four consecutive years.

Comparing the nuclear power fleets of China, France, and the United States — the top three countries by nuclear generation in 2023 — helps illustrate the different roles that nuclear plays in these countries’ energy profiles. The United States generated 775 terawatt hours (TWh) from nuclear, accounting for just over 18% of its 4,249 TWh total power generation. France’s 336 TWh of generation from nuclear made up 65%, or just under two-thirds, of its 514 TWh total generation. But China’s 435 TWh of nuclear generation made up only 5% of its 9,462 TWh of total generation. (The global average is 9% of electricity from nuclear power.)

China is the largest generator of electricity in the world by far, with more than double the generation of the second-ranked country, the United States. So despite nuclear’s growth within China, its percentage share of generation is still much smaller than the corresponding global average, in large part because the “denominator” in the equation, total Chinese electricity demand, is so substantial. In addition, coal-fired power still accounts for well over half of all Chinese power generation.

The United States still leads the world by a sizable margin in terms of total operating nuclear capacity. While China’s nuclear power growth is perhaps the most notable among the world leaders in nuclear power, it is not alone in expanding capacity in recent decades. Several of the other top ten countries by operating nuclear power have added capacity in the last ten to fifteen years, including Russia, South Korea, and India.

China’s prospective nuclear capacity ambitions

GEM data on prospective facilities — that is, announced, pre-construction, and under construction — indicate which countries intend to continue expanding nuclear power in the coming years. Although the United States currently leads all countries with 94 operational nuclear power units and a total capacity of 102 GW, China’s ongoing construction progress is positioning it to shrink the U.S.-China difference over the next decade. China has 118 GW of prospective capacity, which puts the country not only first worldwide for this metric, but also surpasses the second through eighth place countries combined. India, the country with the second-largest prospective nuclear capacity, has a substantial 31.7 GW of prospective nuclear power, but China’s current plans call for additions of over four times that amount.

This growth reflects a targeted effort by the Chinese government to rapidly expand nuclear capacity. The 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025) aims to increase the size of the country’s total operational fleet to 70 GW by 2025. In each of the first three completed years of this plan, there have been between four and six nuclear units starting construction, and two to three units entering commercial operation. China had 50 GW of active capacity at the beginning of 2021, meaning that additions of 20 GW would be needed in five years’ time. Currently, it is a little under half of the way there, with 58.1 GW as of early Q3 2024.

China may fall just short of its goal. Currently, the expected start date data would translate to China having 63 GW online by the end of 2025. But 2026 would then see a further 8 GW added, putting China at 71 GW — not only above the 70 GW mark from the 14th Five Year Plan, but also overtaking France’s 66 GW for the second-largest nation by operating nuclear capacity.

China would need more than 100 GW of operational capacity to surpass the U.S. as the country with the largest nuclear power fleet. Some predictions have this happening as early as the end of the decade, but GEM data at the project level do not currently show this rapid of a change. GEM data only show start years for Chinese nuclear units through 2029, meaning that projections for 2030 or beyond are still indistinct. Only about 25% of China’s 118 GW of prospective capacity has a target start year, which would bring the country to a total of 88 GW in operation. Most of the rest of this prospective capacity represents facilities that are not yet under construction, having only been announced or entering pre-construction stages.

In a scenario where all prospective capacity enters operation, and assuming no retirements before that point, China would easily surpass the United States for the world’s largest operational nuclear fleet, 177 GW to 110 GW. Of course, not all prospective facilities will actualize, and real-world scenarios may include retirements or other temporary but prolonged shutdowns. But at face value, current GEM start year data would also suggest that no further additions to the Chinese nuclear fleet will occur after 2029, which should not be expected either.

Drivers for these changes include the Chinese government’s goals of meeting continued increases in energy demand while also decreasing reliance on coal, a key contributor to emissions and air pollution. The “Action Plan for Carbon Dioxide Peaking Before 2030,” a pivotal policy document, discusses these objectives and the overarching strategy to ensure that the country reaches peak carbon emissions before 2030 and achieves carbon neutrality by 2060. Nuclear is not the only power sector undergoing a Chinese buildout. As detailed in a recent GEM briefing, China is home to almost two-thirds of the world’s utility-scale solar and wind power under construction.

Although Chinese provincial governments are involved in site selection and local approvals, the central government ultimately plays a critical role in the strategic direction of China’s nuclear power program. It has had the effect of both promoting and restraining nuclear power development across different parts of the country. As discussed further below, the central government slowed the pace of overall Chinese nuclear capacity additions with a moratorium on new projects and tighter safety regulations that deprioritized new inland nuclear plants.

China’s nuclear buildout shows a shift to a new generations and technological advancements

China is playing a significant role in the development and deployment of new technologies in nuclear power, specifically Generation III and Generation IV reactors. There are four generations of nuclear power plants, categorizations determined by the time of their development and by specific groupings of technological design. Generation II plants account for the majority of operational capacity worldwide. The nuclear fleets of the United States and France fit this pattern, with most of their reactors classified as Generation II. In addition, some Generation III reactors are operational in these and other countries. Generation III reactors generally have modifications on Generation II reactors, including additional safety design elements that are intended to reduce the need for active controls or operational intervention to prevent accidents in the event of a malfunction.

Like that of the United States and France, China’s operational nuclear fleet is still majority Generation II in terms of total capacities, but this balance is shifting as more Generation III reactors come online. In 2006, China initially announced plans for the AP1000 to serve a foundational role in its fleet — a Generation III reactor designed by the U.S.-based company Westinghouse. The AP1000 has since entered operation at four Chinese nuclear units, the first of which was Unit 1 of the Sanmen nuclear power plant in September 2018. However, China has since also designed and implemented its own Generation III reactors: One notable example is the HPR1000, also named the Hualong One. This design is operational at four Chinese nuclear units and under construction at an additional thirteen, with its increasing use promoted in the 14th Five-Year Plan. China is also deploying the Hualong One internationally, with two operational units in Pakistan and a prospective unit in Argentina. With this reactor design and others, China is not only aiming to meet more of its domestic nuclear energy needs with its own technology, but is also seeking to establish itself as a technological leader and supplier for the international nuclear power market.

China is also involved in advancing nuclear technology with Generation IV designs, the next evolutionary stage in reactor design. In December 2023, the world’s first Generation IV nuclear unit officially entered commercial operation at the Huaneng Shandong Shidao Bay nuclear power plant. Called the HTR-PM (High-Temperature Reactor Pebble-bed Module), it relies on two small reactors that drive one steam turbine with an overall output capacity of 211 MW. This capacity is less than one-fifth of the average capacity of currently operational Generation III reactors in China, which is around 1150 MW according to GEM data. As an example of a small modular reactor (SMR) — a classification often discussed as part of the future of the nuclear power industry — this reactor is designed with intentions of more flexible deployment and quicker construction. China has also proposed a scaled-up version of this design which would yield a larger nameplate capacity of 650 MW.

Frosty outlook: China’s inland plant ice persists

As ambitious as China’s nuclear buildout has been and may continue to be, capacities would have been even higher if not for the indefinite suspension of all plans for inland nuclear power plant construction following the Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011. After Fukushima, the Chinese government imposed a moratorium on the approval process for inland nuclear power plants, and development has continued to stagnate for over a decade, prompted by concerns about safety and environmental impacts. Nuclear power plants need sufficient water sources for cooling purposes, and they discharge trace amounts of radioactive wastewater. Coastal nuclear power plants benefit from access to seawater for cooling, facilitating absorption of trace amounts of pollution by the ocean. But inland nuclear plants must rely on nearby rivers or lakes for cooling water, a fact which, alongside general safety reviews, has been cited as a central concern leading to the moratorium.

China’s 14th Five-Year Plan, covering the years 2021 to 2025, omitted any mention of inland nuclear power, instead emphasizing the deployment of nuclear facilities in coastal regions. GEM data corroborate the lack of construction or pre-construction activities at any inland Chinese nuclear power plants. The Global Nuclear Power Tracker reveals that China had 185 inland nuclear units cancelled. With a combined capacity of 201 GW, this cohort of cancelled Chinese units is larger than either the currently operational U.S. fleet (102 GW) or the total amount of nuclear capacity ever cancelled in the United States (172 GW). The Chinese units affected by the moratorium are shown with a GEM-assigned status of “cancelled – inferred 4 y” as consistent with GEM’s Methodology, because after their initial announcement, they fell out of more recent planning documents, and no progress has been observed for over four years.

However, the classification of “cancelled” for these plants carries some nuance. In the abstract, any of these facilities could re-enter official plans and progress forward to completion. While it appears extremely unlikely that all of them will do so, the idea of lifting the moratorium has been a subject of discussion in light of China’s ambitious goals of carbon peaking by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. For example, the topic of initiating construction on inland nuclear power plants was proposed during the 14th Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) National Committee First Session in spring 2023.

Among the projects affected by the moratorium, some may be more likely candidates to eventually move forward than others. The following three projects may have a relatively smoother pathway toward eventual construction and operation: the Taohuajiang nuclear power plant in Hunan province, the Xianning Dafan nuclear power plant in Hubei Province, and the Jiangxi Pengze nuclear power plant in Jiangxi province. These three had already commenced pre-construction preparations with initial investments.

Owners of cancelled inland nuclear projects were encouraged to preserve the site for energy generation purposes. For instance, Jiangxi Nuclear Power CO LTD, the owner of the Jiangxi Pengze facility, has used the site for developing wind and solar renewable energy projects. This approach has resulted in the commissioning of a solar farm in 2020 and a wind farm in 2021.

This situation also highlights some central questions regarding nuclear’s place in the energy transition, including how it compares to wind and solar in terms of nameplate capacity and risks for delays or cancellations. While the original project plans called for a total nuclear capacity of 4000 MW, less than 5% of that capacity is now operational via wind and solar facilities on the same site. But country-wide, the relationship is essentially inverted, as China has added significantly more wind and large utility-scale solar capacity than nuclear capacity. China’s currently operational nuclear capacity is only about 14% that of its wind capacity and 16% of its large utility-scale solar capacity, according to GEM data.

Nuclear has historically performed differently than wind and solar within the generation stack, serving a baseload role with a much higher capacity factor while wind and solar are intermittent. However, the roles of wind and solar are expected to shift with continued advancements in utility-scale battery technology. China’s once-envisioned inland nuclear fleet also underscores risks for nuclear power which are not nearly as prevalent for wind and solar: postponements and cancellations. GEM data show that China’s total cancelled nuclear capacity of 201 GW is more than 30 times that of its cancelled wind facilities, and more than 40 times that of its cancelled large-scale utility solar facilities. With China’s ambitious nuclear buildout ongoing, it will be important to continue to monitor the rate of cancellations compared to additions.

The post China is building half of the world’s new nuclear power despite inland plants pause appeared first on Global Energy Monitor.

• The Western Balkans region boasts 23 gigawatts (GW) of prospective utility-scale solar and wind capacity — projects announced or in the pre-construction and construction phases — nearly three-quarters more than a year ago and comparable to the prospective capacity in Germany.
• This potential buildout would generate four times more electricity than prospective gas-fired power plants over their lifetimes, and could render gas power obsolete in the region.
• A clean energy transition could avert 103 million tonnes in lifetime CO₂ emissions — equal to 87% of the region’s CO₂ emissions in 2022 — and save over €9 billion in energy costs.

Countries of the Western Balkans have enough prospective utility-scale solar and wind projects to generate four times more electricity than from gas-fired plants, saving billions of euros and avoiding significant carbon emissions in the process, according to a new report from Global Energy Monitor. 

Data in the Global Wind and Solar Power Trackers show that Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia collectively hold a combined 23 GW of prospective utility-scale solar and wind capacity, which is 70% more than a year ago and comparable to the prospective capacity in Germany.

While Serbia currently boasts the largest share of operating (444 megawatts, or 29%) and prospective (10.9 GW, or 47%) utility-scale solar and wind capacity in the region, it risks falling behind as Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and North Macedonia have outpaced it in adding new capacity over the past few years.

Yet the region’s operating utility-scale solar and wind capacity accounts for just 7% of the regional electricity mix (1.5 GW). At the same time, only 6% (1.3 GW) of prospective capacity is under construction and very likely to become operational.

In order to unlock this potential, governments need to address barriers associated with planning and permitting, and develop supportive legal frameworks and complementary infrastructure to build up a clean and flexible grid. Renewables zoning should be done with rigorous environmental safeguards, to reduce trade-offs with nature and biodiversity. Local communities should also be actively involved in, and benefit from the projects. 

For their part, the EU and U.S. need to embrace solar and wind instead of gas as an energy security measure to help the Western Balkans reach its full clean energy potential.

The Western Balkans are in a unique position because the region isn’t already shackled to gas infrastructure. Wind and solar are low hanging fruit, and choosing renewables is a greener move that makes economic sense. But more political will is needed domestically, and the EU and U.S. should champion the region’s clean energy potential rather than backing expensive, polluting gas.

Zhanaiym Kozybay, co-author of the report and researcher for Global Energy Monitor

Chris Vrettos, project manager at the European Federation of Energy Communities, REScoop.eu, said: “This accelerated shift to renewables is a very welcome step, but we must ensure that it is done democratically. Governments should create enabling frameworks to facilitate the growth of energy communities. Project developers should also open part of their projects to shares by local citizens and communities. This would offer a new source of revenue to many households, providing much needed economic prospects especially to communities in ex-coal areas.”

Pippa Gallop, Southeast Europe energy policy officer at Bankwatch, said, “After years of over-reliance on climate-vulnerable hydropower, it’s gratifying to see solar and wind finally accelerating in the Western Balkans. The challenge now is to speed up improvements in spatial planning, environmental assessments and public participation, to prevent biodiversity damage and build public support.”

The post A Race to the Top Western Balkans 2024: Western Balkans can leapfrog gas for solar and wind to power clean energy transition appeared first on Global Energy Monitor.

China is home to almost two-thirds of world’s utility-scale solar and wind power in construction

Utility-scale solar and wind power capacity in construction, by country

What happened in the past year?

China added almost twice as much utility-scale solar and wind power capacity in 2023 than in any other year. By the first quarter of 2024, China’s total utility-scale solar and wind capacity reached 758 GW, though data from China Electricity Council put the total capacity, including distributed solar, at 1,120 GW.  Wind and solar now account for 37% of the total power capacity in the country, an 8% increase from 2022, and widely expected to surpass coal capacity, which is 39% of the total right now, in 2024.

Between March 2023 and March 2024, China installed more solar than it had in the previous three years combined, and more than the rest of the world combined for 2023. Solar capacity first surpassed wind in 2022, and the gap has grown significantly larger, thanks to the massive expansion of distributed solar. Nearly half of the distributed solar added in 2023 was installed on residential rooftops, largely driven by China’s “whole county solar” model. Distributed solar accounts for 41% of the total solar capacity and has experienced a higher growth rate than centralized solar since 2021. The growth is attributed to the advantages of lower investment costs, easy installation, and strong policy support, making it more popular in the market.

Newly installed wind also doubled in growth over the 12 months year on year. After a brief slowdown in 2022 due to the end of central government feed-in tariff subsidies, they bounced back in 2023. GEM’s Global Wind Power Tracker has documented a 51 GW wind capacity increase since 2023 — this growth itself exceeds the total operating capacity of any country, except the United States.

The combined capacity at pre-construction and announced stages for utility-scale solar power reaches 387 GW and 336 GW for wind. This includes the second and third waves of “mega wind & solar bases” with a combined capacity of approximately 503 GW, which will come online between 2025 and 2030. The first wave of “mega wind and solar bases” was announced in 2021 and spanned across 19 provinces. Most of the 97 GW in this first wave began operating in 2023 as scheduled, accounting for a third of China’s newly-operating capacity, pointing to a promising future for the second and third waves.

On the province level, GEM’s data reveals that the northwest and north provinces
continue dominating large-scale solar and wind installation. Meanwhile, distributed
solar is rapidly transforming the landscape in central and southern provinces.
According to the National Energy Administration, this trend has elevated Henan, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang, into the top five for solar capacity compared to the beginning of
2023.

The top six provinces for wind installation, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Hebei, Shanxi, Shandong, and Gansu account for 43% of the total in the country, according to GEM. Although the onshore wind’s distribution among provinces has seen minimal change, offshore wind is rapidly advancing, with Jiangsu continuing to lead the country. Fujian witnessed eleven 16 MW wind turbines, the largest capacity for a single wind turbine in the world, go into operation in the Pingtan offshore wind farm in 2023. The rapid growth offshore wind capacity in Guangdong, Zhejiang, Fujian and Hainan is expected to shift the provincial ranking, potentially replacing Jiangsu as the number one offshore wind province within the next five years.

What is China on track for?

Looking ahead, if all proposed utility scale solar and wind projects come online as
intended, China could easily reach 1,200 GW of installed wind and solar capacity by the
end of 2024, six years ahead of the pledge made by President Xi Jinping and one year
earlier than GEM’s forecast last year.

While China never signed the tripling renewables commitment at COP28, it did support
the pledge in the Sunnylands Statement between China and the U.S. government in
early 2023 to triple renewables energy capacity globally, and intends to sufficiently
accelerate renewable energy deployment in their respective economies through 2030
from 2020 levels. If wind and solar keep adding 200 GW annually as the authorities
planned for 2024, tripling renewable capacity by the end of 2030, based on the 2020
baseline of 934 GW, is well within reach even without any new hydropower additions.
Tripling on the 2022 baseline, as advocated by the International Renewable Energy
Agency (IRENA), can also be achieved if they are installed at a slightly higher growth
rate in 2023 as the authority announced. China should consider a more ambitious
renewable target in its Nationally Determined Contributions to the Paris Agreement
submission to the UN next year.

The sheer amount of prospective capacity under development in China provides
further evidence for the forecast that the power sector’s carbon emissions may peak
earlier than the promised timeline, which is “before 2030.” In fact, the May 2024 study
by Lauri Myllyvirta, a senior fellow at Asia Society Policy Institute and lead analyst at the
Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, even suggests that China’s overall CO2
emissions may have already peaked in 2023, citing that 90% of power demand
increases have been met by wind and solar generation, as well as the decline in
housing construction activity.

China’s energy officials, however, have expressed no intention to reach the peak earlier than 2030. Some argued that the power sector’s postponed peak would help other sectors’ electrification and avoid early sunk costs from the coal power industry.

What are the obstacles?

Despite progress in installations, the question of how China’s coal-centered grid
absorbs the unprecedented renewable surge and delivers the additional power to the
demand region remains a challenge. Although there is fast growth in power storage
capacity, China’s grid heavily relies on coal power to mitigate the intermittency of
renewables, casting a shadow on wind and solar’s achievements.

For example, in the plan for the second wave of mega wind and solar bases for the
period of the 14th Five Year Plan (2021-2025), 30% of the proposed capacity is actually
from coal power, including 28 GW of new coal, among which 10 GW are already under construction according to GEM’s Global Coal Plant Tracker. These coal projects are
happening under the name of intermittency mitigation for wind and solar.

Transmission of electricity presents another potential challenge: Utility-scale solar and
wind power are largely deployed in north and northwest regions and heavily rely on
Ultra High Voltage (UHV) transmission lines to deliver the power to the demand centers
in central, southern and east China. Currently, ten UHV transmission lines are under
construction or preparing to enter construction, but they are far from enough for a
continuous surge in renewable power. The lags in transmission line completion also
bottleneck the transmission of wind and solar power.

Due to the limitation of the transmission capacity and the intermittency mitigation ability, curtailment resurfaced after some years of calm. In March 2024, the curtailment rate of solar power exceeded 5% nationwide, an alarming line set by the government in 2018. Seven provinces and regions, most with large wind and solar capacity in the northwest and north, exceeded 10% of curtailment in February 2024, according to the National Renewable Energy Monitor Center (全国新能源消纳监测预警中心).

In the East China region, where distributed solar is widespread, the regional grid and
power distribution network are unprepared for the distributed solar boom. Since late
2023, the curtailment and temporary suspension of distributed solar applications has
risen significantly in several of the eastern provinces, which could constrain future
distributed solar installations if the ability to absorb solar power is not improved
quickly.

All told, 2023 saw unprecedented wind and solar growth in China. The unabated wave of construction guarantees that China will continue leading in wind and solar installation in the near future, far ahead of the rest of the world. However, China still needs to turn the massive renewables buildup into power generation, replace fossil fuels, and reach the “tipping point” so as to peak its carbon emissions as early as possible.

¹ GEM’s solar tracker includes large utility-scale solar farm phases with a capacity of 20 MW or greater and wind tracker is specifically focused on wind projects with a capacity threshold of 10 MW or greater.

² The solar figures under construction could be even higher, since GEM’s utility-scale solar data does not include small scale distributed solar, which has experienced a boom since 2021, and now accounts for 41% of the total solar capacity.

The post China continues to lead the world in wind and solar, with twice as much capacity under construction as the rest of the world combined appeared first on Global Energy Monitor.

In order to attain its newly expanded goal of having 62 GW of wind power and 81 GW of solar power installed by 2030, Spain will need to hasten its pace of renewables deployment and overcome obstacles: permitting bottlenecks, anemic growth in rooftop solar, and infrastructure limitations that impede demand. With the right mix of policy strategies in the coming years, though, Spain has a realistic chance of meeting the 2030 renewables targets reaffirmed at COP 28.

Spain’s leadership in the European energy transition

The abundance of wind and solar in Spain’s energy mix reflects natural geographical advantages and years of deliberate policy decisions to promote renewables over fossil fuels. Spain was one of Europe’s renewable energy pioneers, installing more than 20 GW of wind power in the early 2000s. Within the past few years, Spain’s innovative coal phase-out has made it a blueprint for a just transition from coal to clean sources of power. The government has funded early retirements for coal miners, worked with the EU to create clean energy apprenticeships for young workers, invested hundreds of millions of euros to support mining communities, and passed a sweeping Climate Change and Energy Transition Law in 2021.

In 2023 Spain revised its National Integrated Energy and Climate Plan, establishing more ambitious 2030 targets for utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) (57 GW) and solar thermal (5 GW), small-scale PV for residential, commercial and industrial “self-consumption” (19 GW), onshore wind (59 GW) and offshore wind (3 GW), while accelerating its coal phase-out date from 2030 to 2025. Spain continues to launch emblematic energy transition projects such as the 1.9 GW Nudo Mudéjar de Andorra, a cluster of solar (1,204 MW) and wind (695 MW) projects designed to replace the former 1,102 MW Teruel coal plant; and the 100 MW Zorita solar farm currently under construction near the retired José Cabrera nuclear plant.

While new solar projects have surged, Spain’s early prominence as a wind power leader has ebbed, though the country still ranks third among European nations in operating wind farm capacity (29.5 GW), and sixth in prospective capacity (41.8 GW). Utility-scale solar and wind projects are widely distributed throughout Spain. Given the country’s geographical characteristics, northern Spain has the lion’s share of operating and prospective wind projects, in regions such as Aragón, Galicia and Castilla y León. Solar projects are more concentrated in southern and central regions including Extremadura, Andalucía and Castilla-La Mancha.

Future solar and wind projects: promise and pitfalls

Spain boasts Europe’s largest pipeline of utility-scale renewables projects in development – led by utility-scale solar, where Spain’s prospective capacity (113.9 GW) is more than the next three countries combined.

GEM data show that as of May 2024, Spain already has 29.5 GW of utility-scale solar energy installed, and 7.8 GW under construction, accounting for 60% of the country’s target of 57 GW of utility-scale solar PV and 5 GW of solar thermal installations by 2030. With 106.1 GW of additional utility-scale solar projects in announced or pre-construction status, Spain could achieve its 2030 solar target by bringing less than a quarter of these existing proposals (24.7 GW) online in the next six years.

A greater challenge, and an important barometer of future success, will be the country’s ability to spur the development of small-scale solar (under 1 MW). Rooftop solar, beyond its benefits in democratizing energy access, helps alleviate transmission grid bottlenecks and preserves agricultural land and greenfields from being converted to solar fields. To date, Spain’s small-scale sector has lagged far behind other European countries, disincentivized by the country’s “sun tax,” which was in effect from 2013 to 2018. Comparing GEM’s utility scale figures to IRENA’s total solar numbers shows that only 5% of Spain’s solar capacity is in small-scale and residential rooftop installations, compared to 62% for Europe. Spain’s National Integrated Energy and Climate Plan calls for autoconsumo (self-generated solar at residential, commercial and industrial sites) to reach 19 GW by 2030, up from an estimated 7 GW in 2023. This will require a reversal of the recent downturn in rooftop solar installations, and a renewed emphasis on incentives such as the 0% VAT on rooftop solar proposed by Spain’s photovoltaic union UNEF, modelled on the success of similar measures in Germany and the UK.

The prognosis for wind is mixed. Spain has 29.5 GW of utility-scale wind in operation, plus 1.7 GW in construction, meaning that the country has already achieved more than half its national goal of 62 GW by 2030. However, to make up the remaining deficit of 30.8 GW, Spain will need to build 77% of the 40 GW of utility-scale wind farms currently in the pipeline with “announced” or “pre-construction” status, and the pace of new commissioning over the next six years will need to increase nearly fivefold compared to the ~1 GW added annually between 2019 and 2023. The Spanish Wind Energy Association (AEE) has forecast year-over-year growth in new wind installations for 2024, but acknowledges that Spain is not yet on track to meet its 2030 targets.

Over the long term, offshore wind may help mitigate these challenges. While there are currently no offshore wind projects under construction, current targets call for 3 GW to be installed by 2030, and GWEC estimates Spain’s offshore wind potential to be greater than 200 GW. The industry is welcoming recent government moves to establish a regulatory framework for offshore renewables, with an official calendar of offshore wind auctions expected soon.

More than 90% of Spain’s prospective utility-scale renewables projects have not yet reached the construction phase, meaning that most are still seeking permits or have only recently been announced. A significant number of projects in these early phases may never be built, for various reasons:

• Concern about potential damage to wildlife and bird habitat and impacts on agriculture and traditional land use has led to unfavourable environmental impact assessments, citizen protests¹, and lawsuits that have slowed or cancelled many projects. Opposition to large renewables projects is especially strong in Galicia, Aragon and in Catalonia, where renewables-based generation grew only 2.2% in 2023, compared to 15.1% nationally.
• In areas with high wind and solar potential, multiple projects are often proposed for the same piece of land, meaning that several projects must be rejected for every project approved.
• The recent glut of renewable energy proposals has exacerbated delays in Spain’s already time-consuming permitting process, which can take up to five years to complete. This means that some prospective projects currently listed in GEM’s database, even if successful, may not actually be commissioned before 2030. 
• Flagging electricity demand and inadequate infrastructure also pose challenges to deployment of new projects.

Despite these challenges, Spain remains well positioned to maintain and enhance its standing as a European renewables leader. Spain’s natural advantages in wind and solar supply, combined with the right mix of policy strategies, offer a realistic chance of meeting the 2030 renewables targets reaffirmed at COP 28. Spain’s best path forward calls for enhanced promotion of small-scale solar, judicious and timely commissioning of existing utility-scale wind and solar proposals, continued research on offshore wind, and measures to boost demand and prevent oversupply, including grid and storage expansions, electrification of transport, and development of electricity-intensive industries.

¹ Spain’s Ministry of Ecological Transition has organized public “listening and participation” workshops to facilitate the socially and environmentally fair distribution of the benefits linked to the energy transition and the integration of renewable energies. In April 2024, the ministry announced plans to incorporate socioeconomic and environmental criteria in future renewable energy auctions.
Civil society organizations have led similar initiatives. In February 2024, following the publication in 2023 of its report Renewables and territory: inspirational cases to improve deployment in the territory, SDSN Spain presented a constructive and proactive roadmap to balance the narratives around the deployment of renewable energies and guide the actions of public administrations and other key actors in the sector.

The post Spain maintains solar leadership, but needs to accelerate pace to meet 2030 renewables goals appeared first on Global Energy Monitor.

• ASEAN countries have over 28 gigawatts (GW) of operating utility-scale solar and wind capacity, up 20% from 23 GW in the last year.
• Vietnam has the largest share of operating utility-scale solar and wind capacity in the region at 19 GW, followed by Thailand and the Philippines each with 3 GW. 
• While the region boasts a whopping 220 GW of prospective capacity –– projects that have been announced or are in the pre-construction and construction phases –– only a fraction of this capacity (6 GW, or 3% –one quarter of the global average) is currently under construction.
• The Philippines and Vietnam have 99 GW and 86 GW, respectively, of prospective utility-scale solar and wind power, which add up to 80% of the region’s total, and represent the eighth- and ninth-largest prospective capacity worldwide.

Utility-scale solar and wind capacity in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is up by a fifth since this time last year, and the region is on track to easily meet its upcoming renewables commitments ahead of schedule. 

But lack of progress in breaking ground on new projects, coupled with a challenging regulatory environment for renewables and continued reliance on fossil fuels, poses an uphill path to a clean energy transition, finds a new report from Global Energy Monitor.

Data from the Global Solar and Wind Power Trackers show that ASEAN countries have grown their utility-scale solar and wind capacity 20% in the last year to over 28 GW.  

Vietnam has the largest share of operating utility-scale solar and wind capacity in the region at 19 GW, followed by Thailand and the Philippines each with 3 GW. The Philippines and Vietnam have 99 GW and 86 GW, respectively, of prospective utility-scale solar and wind power, which add up to 80% of the region’s total, and represent the eighth- and ninth-largest prospective capacity among countries worldwide.

The ASEAN region also boasts almost five times more prospective offshore wind power (124 GW) than onshore, which amounts to nearly twice the current offshore operating capacity worldwide (69 GW).

Yet despite an impressive pipeline of prospective projects, only a fraction of this capacity is currently under construction (6 GW, or 3% — one quarter of the global average). 

At the same time, with a goal of 35% installed renewables capacity by 2025, ASEAN countries only need to add an additional 10.7 GW of utility-scale projects on top of what is already in construction in order to meet this goal. With 23 GW set to become operational by 2025, the region is likely to far surpass this milestone.

The growth of renewables across the region is impressive, but so much more can be achieved. With the world now aiming to triple renewables capacity by 2030, governments need to make it easier to bring wind and solar power online.  Switching to renewables now from coal and gas will save countries time and money on the path to a clean energy future.

Janna Smith, researcher with Global Energy Monitor

The post A Race to the Top Southeast Asia 2024: Operating solar and wind capacity in Southeast Asia grows by a fifth since last year, but only 3% of prospective projects are in construction appeared first on Global Energy Monitor.

While a step forward for the heartland of fossil fuels, the renewables capacity added in the last year is relatively unambitious compared to MENA’s peers and dwarfed by the outsized role of oil and gas in the region.

Four times more renewables (32 GW) were brought online during that same period in South America, a region with a similar population size and gross domestic product, with Brazil alone adding over 14 GW of large utility-scale solar and wind.

The incremental progress on renewables is all the more concerning given that MENA needs roughly 500 GW of solar and wind capacity to replace the electricity generation from the 343 GW of gas and oil power plants in the region.

The report does show that all but two of the 23 nation-states in the MENA region have increased their plans for wind and solar power in the past year, with eight countries having at least three times more prospective capacity – projects that are either announced, in pre-construction, or under construction – than 12 months ago.

The region’s prospective capacity increased to 361 GW, a rise of 292 GW in the last year -more than the total prospective capacity in the U.S. and Canada combined.

Among all the prospective utility-scale solar and wind projects, just 6% (23 GW) are under construction.

Forty-seven percent (171 GW) are in pre-construction, meaning these projects have demonstrated either financing, government permitting, land rights, or formal power purchase or offtake agreements. The remaining 46% of prospective projects have just been announced.

More than half (60%) of this prospective capacity is earmarked for green hydrogen production or direct export. These hydrogen projects are massive — averaging 2.6 GW per phase (14 times the global average) — and have distant estimated start years.

Green hydrogen may offer a means for economic diversification for these oil and gas-dependent nations, but carries higher risk and will not contribute to decarbonizing local electricity usage.

Last year’s wind and solar additions are a step in the right direction for the region but still light years from dethroning oil and gas. The trouble is that the region’s path to a green economy relies overwhelmingly on hydrogen exports, which is an unproven technology that is not being designed to address energy access nor decarbonization at home.

Kasandra O’Malia, Project Manager for the Global Solar Power Tracker at Global Energy Monitor

The post MENA grows renewables by half but clings to risky hydrogen and gas appeared first on Global Energy Monitor.

The Global Solar and Wind Power Trackers identify prospective projects that have been announced or are in the pre-construction and construction phases totalling approximately 379 GW of large utility-scale solar and 371 GW of wind capacity, which is roughly equal to China’s current installed operating capacity.

Nearly all of this prospective capacity is part of the government’s 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025) and enough to increase the global wind fleet by nearly half and large utility-scale solar installations by over 85%. This amount of prospective solar capacity is triple that of the United States, and accompanied by China’s significant share of approximately one-fifth of the global prospective wind capacity.

The Global Solar and Wind Power Trackers also show:

• China’s operating large utility-scale solar capacity has reached 228 GW – more than the rest of the world combined.
• China’s combined onshore and offshore wind capacity has doubled from what it was in 2017 and now surpasses 310 GW.
• Operating offshore wind capacity has reached 31.4 GW, and accounts for approximately 10% of China’s total wind capacity and exceeds the operating offshore capacity of all of Europe.

This new data provides unrivaled granularity about China’s jaw-dropping surge in solar and wind capacity. As we closely monitor the implementation of prospective projects, this detailed information becomes indispensable in navigating the country’s energy landscape.

Dorothy Mei, Project Manager at Global Energy Monitor

China is making strides, but with coal still holding sway as the dominant power source, the country needs bolder advancements in energy storage and green technologies for a secure energy future.

Martin Weil, Researcher at Global Energy Monitor

The post A Race to the Top China 2023: China’s quest for energy security drives wind and solar development appeared first on Global Energy Monitor.

The new Global Hydropower Tracker, which catalogs 2,212 GW of hydropower globally with nearly 4,000 pumped storage, conventional and run-of-river hydropower projects of at least 75 megawatts (MW) or larger, shows that the Eastern Asia region has a total of 425 GW of pumped storage capacity operating and prospective – announced, in pre-construction, or in construction – 73% of the global total. 

Pumped storage is a crucial component of the global energy transition, as the worldwide growth in variable renewable energy sources like wind and solar increases the need for energy storage solutions. Modeling by IRENA suggests that 420 GW of total installed pumped storage hydropower will be needed in order to allow the world to meet the Paris Agreement’s climate goals by 2050. 

Of all operating hydropower projects with at least 75 MW of nameplate capacity, only 14% (161 GW) is accounted for by pumped storage, and the other 86% (967 GW) is conventional storage or run-of-river. But pumped storage makes up 49% (439 GW) of prospective capacity, indicating the rising importance of this technology type in the coming years relative to other types of hydropower.

According to the Global Hydropower Tracker, the top five countries with the most operating pumped storage hydropower are:

1. China (51 GW, 30% of the global total)
2. Japan (24 GW, 14% of the global total)
3. United States (22 GW, 13% of the global total)
4. Italy (8 GW, 5% of the global total)
5. Germany (6 GW, 4% of the global total)

The top five countries with the most prospective pumped storage hydropower are:

1. China (407 GW, 82% of the global total)
2. India (16 GW, 3% of the global total)
3. Australia (14 GW, 3% of the global total)
4. United States (14 GW, 3% of the global total)
5. United Kingdom (6 GW, 1% of the global total)

Pumped storage capacity is set to grow much faster than conventional dams worldwide, and China is the clearest example of this trend. Pumped storage and hydropower are an integral part of the global energy transition, and the rest of the world should take note of the build out in Eastern Asia.

Joe Bernardi, Project Manager for the Global Hydropower Tracker

The post Led by China, Eastern Asia alone can meet key target for pumped storage appeared first on Global Energy Monitor.

Together with existing distributed and smaller-scale solar capacity, Latin America will be on track to meet, and potentially surpass, the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) 2030 regional net zero renewable energy goals if it implements all of its prospective larger-scale projects.

The region’s top five countries in terms of prospective utility-scale solar and wind capacity additions are:

1. Brazil (217 GW)
2. Chile (38 GW)
3. Colombia (37 GW)
4. Peru (10 GW)
5. Mexico (7 GW)

The top five countries in terms of current operating utility-scale solar and wind are:

1. Brazil (27 GW)
2. Mexico (20 GW)
3. Chile (10 GW)
4. Argentina (5 GW)
5. Uruguay (2 GW)

With a collective capacity of over 57 GW, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico make up almost 84% of the existing 69 GW of currently operating utility-scale solar and wind farms in the region. But while Brazil, Chile, and Colombia stand at the vanguard of the renewables race, Mexico has fallen behind; ultimately only set to reach 70% of its pledge to bring 40 GW of solar and wind by 2030 – even if all prospective projects come online.

While distributed solar may be at the crux of the renewables transition in Latin America, the region is also at a major inflection point when it comes to supporting important utility-scale projects that could turn it into a global energy giant

Kasandra O’Malia, Project Manager, Global Solar Power Tracker

The renewables race is accelerating quickly, which means countries that have ramped up efforts like Brazil and Colombia, must remain vigilant while creating large-scale solar and wind projects. Latin America can become a world benchmark for a just energy transition if future projects respect ecological balances and bring not only economic, but also social benefits.

Sophia Bauer, Researcher at Global Energy Monitor

The post A Race to the Top Latin America 2023: Wind and solar utility-scale buildout gains speed in Brazil, Chile and Colombia, while Mexico falls behind appeared first on Global Energy Monitor.

This race to the top of renewables capacity is demonstrating a marked shift away from fossil fuel power in some countries. The 39.7 GW of prospective solar and wind energy projects pursued by the top three countries in the region – Oman, Morocco, and Algeria – is nearly four times their prospective new gas-fired capacity.

Oman has 15.3 GW of prospective utility-scale solar projects announced, in development, or in construction, compared to only 0.3 GW of prospective gas-powered and 0.04 GW of prospective oil-powered electricity. Morocco plans to roll out 14.4 GW of utility-scale solar and wind projects in the next five years, six times the capacity of its prospective gas projects. 

The region’s top five countries in terms of prospective utility-scale solar and wind capacity additions are:

1. Oman (15.3 GW)
2. Morocco (14.4 GW)
3. Algeria (10.0 GW)
4. Kuwait (9.6 GW)
5. Iraq (5.8 GW)

The top five countries in terms of current operating utility-scale solar and wind are:

1. Egypt (3.5 GW)
2. United Arab Emirates (2.6 GW)
3. Morocco (1.9 GW)
4. Jordan (1.7 GW)
5. Saudi Arabia (0.78 GW)

The 114 prospective solar projects and the 45 prospective wind projects are also markedly large: the average size of prospective solar farm phases in the region is nearly four times that of the rest of the world, and the average wind phase farm size is more than one and a half times that of the rest of the world. 

At the epicenter of the oil economy, a renewables boom is taking shape. This transformation should send a strong signal to the rest of the world that even oil and gas-producing countries are embracing renewables.

Ingrid Behrsin, Project Manager, Global Wind Power Tracker

The Middle East and North Africa have always had tremendous potential for wind and solar development, but to see these countries shunning fossil gas in favor of renewables and at this scale is stunning.

Kasandra O’Malia, Project Manager for the Global Solar Power Tracker

The post A Race to the Top ’22 Middle East & North Africa: Arabic-speaking Countries on Pace to Grow Their Utility-scale Wind and Solar Capacity More than 500% by 2030 appeared first on Global Energy Monitor.