China is advancing a nearly 1.3 terawatt (TW) pipeline of utility-scale solar and wind capacity, leading the global effort in renewable energy buildout. This is in addition to China’s already operating 1.4 TW of solar and wind capacity, nearly 10% of which (141 gigawatts (GW)) came online in 2024. Though only a small portion of China’s overall renewable capacity, China’s offshore wind fleet contributes over 50% of the overall offshore wind capacity in construction worldwide. However, China is not immune to the challenges of this new market, as development of offshore wind in China has slowed in recent years. In order for this technology to advance, China has an opportunity to move from its provincial development approach to one that provides stable and market-specific national policies.

• China is fast-tracking a 1.3 TW pipeline of utility-scale solar and wind projects. Of this, 510 GW is already under construction, primed to be added to China’s 1.4 TW solar and wind capacity already in operation.
• As of March 2025, China has emerged as the world’s offshore wind powerhouse — growing from under 5 GW in 2018 to 42.7 GW in 2025 (50% of global capacity).
• Offshore wind could play a role in decarbonizing China’s coastal provinces, but fossil fuels stand in the way. 
• China’s offshore wind fleet shows promising expansion as technology and development progress, but international policies can provide valuable insights for national strategies to ensure market stabilization. 

China has over 1.3 TW of planned solar and wind capacity

China leads global utility-scale solar capacity for projects in announced, pre-construction, and construction phases. According to Global Energy Monitor’s Global Solar Power Tracker, China has over 709 GW¹ of prospective solar capacity, representing over one-third of planned solar capacity worldwide in 2025. These projects could generate approximately 1,100 terawatt hours (TWh) of electricity per year — equivalent to roughly 122% of Japan’s 2023 electricity consumption (909 TWh). About 161 GW (23%) of prospective capacity is in announced phases, while 261 GW (37%) is in pre-construction phases. China’s construction capacity exceeds 40%, as 287 GW has broken ground. This is roughly four times the global average for capacity under construction (9%).

Figure 1

China’s wind capacity follows a similar rate of growth as solar, according to Global Energy Monitor’s Global Wind Power Tracker, with over 590 GW in prospective phases — nearly 530 GW of onshore capacity and 63 GW of offshore capacity. As of July 2025, 223 GW (37%) of this prospective capacity is under construction, almost four times the combined under-construction capacity of the rest of the world. If these projects become operational, they could generate roughly 1,260 TWh of electricity per year, enough to power about 120 million United States households. Ultimately, China’s prospective capacity accounts for about one-third of total global wind capacity in development.

Geographically, Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia host 40% (523 GW) of China’s prospective capacity. Of this, nearly 212 GW — 31% of global utility-scale solar and wind under construction — is found in these autonomous regions. This rapid buildout underscores China’s drive to accelerate its renewable energy development, with at least 205 GW of new capacity slated to come online in China by this year’s end, though the total capacity is expected to be even higher.

Figure 2

China’s 1.4 TW operating solar and wind outstrips thermal power 

In Q1 2025, China’s wind and solar capacity surpassed its thermal (coal and gas) capacity for the first time, supplying nearly 23% of the country’s total electricity consumed, up from roughly 18% in Q1 of 2024, according to the National Energy Administration (NEA). Increased output from solar, wind, and other non-fossil energy also met China’s additional electricity demands in Q1 2025. China’s solar and wind operating capacity has soared to 1.4 TW and now accounts for 44% of the world’s operating utility-scale solar and wind capacity, more than the combined total of the European Union, United States, and India.

As of May 2025, China has installed 1,080 GW of solar capacity, with May seeing China’s  largest monthly increase in operating capacity. China’s annual solar additions jumped from 55 GW in 2021 to 88 GW in 2022 (+60%), surged to 216 GW in 2023 (+145%), and then reached 278 GW in 2024 (+29%). Of the 278 GW added capacity, 57% (159 GW) came from centralized installations and 43% (118 GW) came from distributed systems. Included in 2024 additions is the world’s largest single-site photovoltaic plant — the 3.5 GW Midong Solar Farm, located in Xinjiang Autonomous Region — which was connected to the grid in June 2024. Once fully operational, the solar project Midong is expected to generate nearly 6.1 TWh per year, nearly matching the annual electricity demand of Luxembourg in 2023.

Figure 3

Wind power has followed a similarly rapid trajectory. As of May 2025, China added 46 GW of new wind capacity for the year, bringing the total to 570 GW of operating capacity. A notable project is the Omattingga Wind Farm in Tibet, a 100 megawatt (MW) installation that is the world’s highest-altitude wind farm. At 4,650 meters high, it produces about 200 gigawatt hours (GWh) annually.

Figure 4

Offshore wind development ramping up in China

China’s coastal provinces² are home to many of China’s major megacities and industrial hubs, and while they contribute 25% and 30% of the nation’s solar and wind capacity, respectively, they consume nearly half of the nation’s electricity. Though offshore wind represents only about 9% of China’s total wind power capacity, it is gaining traction as these provinces pursue ambitious decarbonization targets. China has already begun tapping into this potential, but further progress will require a strategic and coordinated nationwide approach to fully scale offshore wind as a pillar of coastal decarbonization.

Figure 5

Figure 6

China has established itself as the global leader in offshore wind through rapid and large-scale development. In 2024, China added 4.4 GW of offshore wind capacity, accounting for nearly 55% of all global additions that year. China’s offshore wind capacity grew from less than 5 GW in 2018 to 42.7 GW by March 2025. This represents a sustained compound annual growth rate of 41% over the past five years, two times the global average. Among China’s iconic projects is the 1.7 GW Yangjiang Shaba III complex in the South China Sea, China’s largest deep-sea wind farm. This project alone accounts for nearly 10% of Guangdong Province’s total operational offshore wind capacity.

This growth is enabled by the country’s vast offshore wind potential (estimated at 1,400 GW), its proximity to eastern coastal demand centers, and advances in domestic offshore wind technologies. As of February 2025, China had 67 GW of offshore wind projects in the development pipeline, 41% (28 GW) of which is under construction — a stark comparison to the global average of 2% under construction outside of China.

Figure 7

If China grows its offshore wind capacity, the technology could help displace coal and cut carbon emissions. Guangdong province’s 11.4 GW offshore wind fleet has the potential to avoid roughly 23 million tonnes of CO₂ each year if fully operational — equivalent to burning 8.7 million tonnes of standard coal. Yet offshore wind’s rollout must compete against continued development of gas and coal, which remains prominent in the region, as 13.5 GW of gas power capacity and 23 GW of coal are planned for commissioning by 2027 in Guangdong province alone. Guangdong is not the only coastal province with offshore wind development running in parallel with its fossil fuel capacity. While offshore wind’s capacity to deliver stable electricity makes it particularly well-suited for decarbonizing China’s heavy industries, such as steel and petrochemical manufacturing concentrated along the east coast Bohai Rim, Yangtze River Delta, and Pearl River Delta, it continues to face challenges as coal and gas are still on the rise across China.

China’s coastal provinces collectively outlined a total offshore wind capacity target of 52 GW during the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021–2025). As of February 2025, China’s operational offshore wind fleet totaled 41 GW — meeting nearly 80% of China’s combined provincial goal. Nearly 10 GW of the 11 GW needed to bridge the gap is expected to become operational by the end of 2025. 

In striving to meet their 14th Five-Year Plan offshore wind targets, each coastal province has pursued its own development pathway. Among them, Jiangsu and Guangdong stand out as national leaders, with 12.6 GW and 11.4 GW of installed offshore wind capacity respectively, accounting for 55% of the country’s total offshore capacity.

Jiangsu was one of the earliest provinces to scale up offshore wind capacity, thanks to favorable shallow-water conditions in the Yellow Sea and early development of intertidal and nearshore zones dedicated to offshore wind development. These conditions made way for the growth of the country’s largest offshore wind supply chain hub, with Yancheng City alone hosting over 47 wind equipment manufacturers. Today, Jiangsu’s newest fleet of offshore wind projects is being pushed into deeper waters as the result of already established offshore wind projects in shallow waters.

Guangdong has emerged as China’s fastest-growing offshore wind market. The province is also home to Mingyang’s OceanX, the world’s largest-capacity floating platform. Unlike Jiangsu’s shallow seabed, Guangdong’s deep waters require jacket foundations or floating structures capable of withstanding frequent typhoons that ultimately raise engineering demands, as turbines need reinforced, storm-resistant designs. China’s floating wind sector has been proactively addressing these challenges, with the development of typhoon-ready designs to face extreme weather conditions. To tame high costs, Guangdong approved large-scale projects (500–800 MW) to capture economies of scale and encourage turbine upscaling, with local original equipment manufacturers like Mingyang rolling out 10–18 MW models to boost energy yield per foundation.

China is rapidly advancing floating wind technology to tap deepwater resources. As of Q1 2025, almost 40 MW is operational across five pilot projects. The first phase (200 MW) of a 1,000 MW Hainan Wanning floating offshore wind farm is scheduled for completion by the end of 2025. China also leads in developing flagship offshore turbines. In June 2024, Goldwind became the first company to commercialize a 16 MW unit at Zhangpu-Liuao Phase 2. Later that year, Dongfang Electric unveiled a 26 MW design with a 310-meter rotor.

China’s coastal provinces are pioneering ways to decarbonize heavy industry and energy systems powered by offshore wind. One major decarbonization pathway is producing green hydrogen from offshore wind. Pilot projects are underway in Fujian, Guangdong, and Shandong, with robust central policy support. Offshore wind is also being utilized for direct electrification of energy‐intensive industries. In Guangdong, for example, a 500 MW offshore wind farm in the South China Sea, slated to connect in late 2025, will deliver 100% renewable power to Germany-based company BASF’s Zhanjiang Verbund chemical complex. In June 2025, Shanghai Lingang announced the world’s first commercial underwater data center powered by offshore wind, sourcing over 90% of its energy from sea-based turbines.

While China remains committed to innovation in offshore wind, the sector faces a key domestic challenge following the phaseout of national subsidies in 2021. At the end of 2021, China phased out its national feed-in tariffs (FiTs), which had guaranteed developers premium rates and supported an Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of roughly 10%. In the rush to meet the subsidy deadline, China installed a record 16.6 GW in 2021, only to see additions drop to about 6.5 GW in 2022. To soften the blow, provinces such as Guangdong, Shandong, and Zhejiang introduced modest local incentives in 2022, including both capacity-based subsidies and tariff-based subsidies.

China’s offshore wind future — Strategic anchors & policy blueprint

China’s offshore wind sector is entering a critical phase of development, requiring a coordinated policy framework that balances industrial scaling, environmental sustainability, and technological advancement. Drawing from international markets, China has the opportunity to refine its approach to offshore wind development and enhance the technology’s long-term competitiveness with fossil fuels. By combining global best practices with domestic policy needs, China can create a stable and coordinated approach to fully scale offshore wind as a pillar of coastal decarbonization.

Adjustments to the project bidding structure could support sustainable sector growth. A hybrid auction mechanism that incorporates both price and technical criteria, such as ecological impact mitigation (e.g., sediment stabilization, noise-reducing foundations), grid integration readiness, and technology advancement (e.g., hydrogen generation, black-start capabilities) can incentivize innovation. Such an approach strengthens the market signals for high-quality projects while reinforcing the long-term resilience and sustainability of the sector. International models like the Netherlands’ zero-subsidy auction system, which prioritizes technological ingenuity through non-price criteria and the United Kingdom’s Contract for Difference (CfD) mechanism, which guarantees long-term price stability by indexing payments to wholesale electricity prices, offer complementary lessons. The Dutch model drives down levelized costs by fostering competition in efficiency gains, and the CfD system mitigates financing risks through 15-year revenue certainty, which can be critical for China’s capital-intensive deepwater projects. China could structure auction criteria to reflect regional priorities, allocating greater emphasis to technical merits in ecologically sensitive zones and prioritizing price competitiveness in mature industrial clusters. This dynamic calibration would reward projects that align with national decarbonization targets while maintaining market-driven efficiency.

Robust spatial planning and ecological safeguards are essential to balancing offshore wind expansion with marine conservation. In December 2024, China announced depth and distance requirements, as well as ecological regulations for new offshore wind projects. Centralized marine spatial planning can play a pivotal role in this transition by identifying suitable development zones based on wind resource availability, ecological sensitivity, and proximity to grid infrastructure. Linking project development to habitat restoration efforts, similar to Germany’s biodiversity compensation models, can align offshore wind expansion with marine conservation goals. This integrated approach helps to ensure that site selection and project development are both environmentally responsible and strategically aligned with national priorities.

Support for industrial-academic collaboration may accelerate technology development, particularly in areas such as typhoon-resilient floating platforms and AI-powered predictive maintenance. Partnerships involving major developers and research institutions, such as state-owned enterprises China Three Gorges Corporation and State Power Investment Corporation, and private wind turbine manufacturer MingYang Smart Energy, have the potential to strengthen innovation ecosystems. These collaborations can help bridge research and commercialization, positioning China at the forefront of offshore wind innovation globally.

About the Solar and Wind Trackers

The Global Solar Power Tracker is a worldwide dataset of utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) and solar thermal facilities. It covers all operating solar farm phases with capacities of 1 megawatt (MW) or more and all announced, pre-construction, construction, and shelved projects with capacities greater than 20 MW. The Global Wind Power Tracker is a worldwide dataset of utility-scale, on- and offshore wind facilities. It includes wind farm phases with capacities of 10 megawatts (MW) or more.

About Global Energy Monitor

Global Energy Monitor (GEM) develops and shares information in support of the worldwide movement for clean energy. By studying the evolving international energy landscape and creating databases, reports, and interactive tools that enhance understanding, GEM seeks to build an open guide to the world’s energy system. Follow us at www.globalenergymonitor.org, on Twitter/X @GlobalEnergyMon, and Bluesky @globalenergymon.bsky.social.

Media Contact

Mengqi Zhang

Researcher

mengqi.zhang@globalenergymonitor.org

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Boom and Bust is an annual survey of the global coal fleet by Global Energy Monitor and partners. The report analyzes key trends in coal power capacity and tracks various stages of capacity development including planned retirements. This provides key insights into the status of the global phaseout of coal power and evaluates progress towards the world’s climate targets and commitments. 

The data comes from GEM’s Global Coal Plant Tracker, an online database updated biannually, with partial quarterly supplements, that identifies and maps every known coal-fired generating unit and every new unit proposed since January 1, 2010 (30 MW and larger). 

Global Energy Monitor’s data serves as a vital international reference point used by organizations including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, International Energy Agency, and the United Nations, as well as global media outlets.

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In 2024, global coal power additions dropped to their lowest level in 20 years, yet the world’s coal fleet continued to grow, according to Global Energy Monitor’s annual survey of the global coal fleet.

Data from the Global Coal Plant Tracker show that 44.1 gigawatts (GW) of coal power capacity was commissioned while 25.2 GW was retired in 2024, resulting in a net increase of 18.8 GW. The capacity commissioned was nearly 30 GW below the annual average for 2004 to 2024 (72 GW) — a sign of the continued slowdown in global coal construction.

Even so, retirements have not kept pace with new additions. Global coal capacity rose to 2,175 GW, up 259 GW since the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015. Most of this growth came from China, which commissioned 30.5 GW of coal power capacity in 2024 — 70% of the global total — and saw 94.5 GW in new construction starts, the highest in nearly a decade.

Outside China, coal power capacity decreased by 9.2 GW, as retirements (22.8 GW) exceeded new additions (13.5 GW) in the rest of the world. In the EU27, retirements quadrupled year over year, reaching 11 GW, while the UK shut down its last coal plant, becoming the sixth country to complete a coal phaseout since 2015.

But elsewhere, progress stalled. Retirements slowed in the United States, falling to 4.7 GW — the country’s lowest level in a decade. At the same time, India recorded its highest-ever level of new coal proposals, totaling 38.4 GW. But outside of China and India, new proposals fell to just 8.8 GW — the lowest level since 2015 — highlighting a continued contraction of the coal project pipeline across most of the world.

As new proposals have declined globally, coal development has become increasingly concentrated in fewer countries. Just ten countries now account for 96% of coal power capacity under development, with China and India alone responsible for 87%. This consolidation reflects the accelerating exit from coal in much of the world, even as a small group of countries continues to pursue large-scale expansion.

In the 38 countries comprising the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the shift away from coal has been especially pronounced: The number of coal plant proposals has dropped from 142 in 2015 to just five today. But despite this progress, coal retirements in OECD countries need to more than triple — from 19 GW to 70 GW annually — to align with the Paris Agreement.

Coal power set records last year but not the ones industry would like to see. Last year was a harbinger of things to come for coal as the clean energy transition moves full speed ahead. But work is still needed to ensure coal power is phased out in line with the Paris climate agreement, particularly in the world’s wealthiest nations.

Christine Shearer, Project Manager of Global Energy Monitor’s Global Coal Plant Tracker

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Coal exits gather speed in Europe, while major economies fall behind

Retirements surged in Europe in 2024, with the EU27 retiring 11 GW of coal capacity — a fourfold increase over 2023. Germany led the way, retiring 6.7 GW, while the United Kingdom completed its coal phaseout — a key milestone in Europe’s broader shift away from coal. These shifts underscore the accelerating pace of coal retirements across much of Europe.

All but three EU countries are now planning to be coal-free by 2033, and both Ireland and Spain are expected to complete their phaseouts in 2025. Still, at least seven EU countries have timelines that will need to be accelerated to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement.

But elsewhere, progress was far less consistent. In the United States, coal retirements fell to 4.7 GW, the country’s lowest annual total since 2014. The slowdown extends a trend that began in 2021, as fewer plants are being scheduled for closure and more retirements face delays.

Coal plant retirements in the U.S. are expected to pick up over the next few years. Despite the Trump administration’s support for coal, more coal was retired during Trump’s first term than under Obama or Biden — a trend that is set to continue.

Meanwhile, China’s retirements remained minimal, leaving the country off track to meet its 30 GW retirement goal under the current 14th Five-Year Plan (2021–2025). With far more plants being added than taken offline, China’s coal fleet continued to expand — underscoring the challenge of achieving net reductions without a formal phaseout policy.

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China and India defy the global coal decline

While most of the world moved away from coal in 2024, China and India continued to drive large-scale development, expanding their coal pipelines even as many other countries backed away.

In China, a surge in construction activity followed an unprecedented permitting boom in 2022 and 2023, during which more than 200 GW of coal capacity was approved — more than the size of the entire U.S. coal fleet. In 2024, 94.5 GW of that capacity moved into construction, the country’s highest level of construction starts since 2015.

If not curtailed, this wave of new coal plants could undermine President Xi Jinping’s pledge to strictly limit the growth in coal consumption by 2025.

Meanwhile, India proposed 38.4 GW of new coal power in 2024 — the highest annual total on record. The country plans to build more than 90 GW of new coal by 2032, even as it targets 500 GW of non-fossil capacity by 2030.

Although many countries have now committed to phasing out coal, the ongoing expansion in China and India threatens to offset global progress.

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Outside Asia’s giants, momentum toward phaseout grows

In Southeast Asia, several countries are moving toward a managed exit from coal. New proposals have dwindled across the region, driven by phaseout pledges in Indonesia and Malaysia, a moratorium on coal plant permitting in the Philippines, and the development of just transition planning in Vietnam.

Indonesia presents a more complicated picture. While the country appears on track to retire 9.2 GW of coal by 2030, and President Prabowo has pledged to phase out coal power by 2040, a major challenge is emerging: the rapid growth of captive coal plants — those supplying electricity directly to industrial facilities. These plants fall outside the grid-based retirement pledges and risk repeating the pattern of the past decade’s buildout: overcapacity, cost overruns, and controversy.

Meanwhile, in Turkiye, coal power expansion has nearly ground to a halt, as the country’s pipeline of new proposals has collapsed — leaving just one remaining project (0.7 GW). This puts the country on the verge of joining other OECD nations in eliminating all unabated coal plant proposals.

In Latin America, countries are approaching a full exit from coal. Only Brazil and Honduras still have coal proposals on the books, and even those have lingered for years without progress. In 2024, Panama committed to phasing out coal power by 2026, joining a growing group of countries in the region moving toward coal-free electricity.

But while most of Latin America is phasing out coal, Brazil remains home to the last coal plant proposal over 100 megawatts in Latin America, and its coal subsidies are drawing growing criticism. Brazilian ratepayers are set to spend R$8 billion (US$1 billion) between 2020 and 2027 to support just two coal plants, with the Brazilian Congress currently debating a R$92 billion (US$16 billion) extension through 2050. These measures risk locking in coal for decades, despite clear regional momentum in the opposite direction.

In Africa, coal development remains limited but not absent. Most countries in the region are prioritizing renewables and gas, and no new coal plants were commissioned in 2024. Still, new proposals emerged in Zimbabwe and Zambia, largely backed by Chinese developers — despite the Chinese government’s 2021 pledge to stop building new coal plants overseas. These projects stand out as exceptions in a region where coal activity has stalled, and raise concerns about fossil fuel lock-in in emerging energy systems.

While most OECD countries have moved away from coal, Japan and South Korea remain notable holdouts. Both countries continued to build and plan new coal plants in 2024, placing them increasingly out of step with international climate commitments and the broader shift among high-income economies.

In an effort to justify ongoing coal use, Japan and South Korea jointly agreed in 2024 to promote ammonia co-firing at coal plants as an “emissions reduction” strategy. But this approach has drawn criticism for prolonging the life of coal infrastructure and falling short of what’s needed to align with the Paris Agreement.

Coal phaseouts are lagging where they matter most

While much of the world continues to move away from coal power, the pace of retirements and project cancellations remains far too slow to meet global climate goals.

The divide between progress and continued buildout widened in 2024. Many countries completed or accelerated coal exits, while others ramped up new construction. This uneven trajectory has left the global coal transition off pace for aligning with the Paris Agreement.

Boom and Bust Coal 2025 is a joint effort by Global Energy Monitor, Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), E3G, Reclaim Finance, Sierra Club, Solutions for Our Climate, Kiko Network, Climate Action Network (CAN) Europe, Waterkeepers Bangladesh, Dhoritri Rokhhay Amra (DHORA), Trend Asia, Policy Research Institute for Equitable Development, Chile Sustentable, POLEN Transiciones Justas, Arayara, Bankwatch, INSAPROMA, and Africa Just Transition Network.

The post Boom and Bust Coal 2025 appeared first on Global Energy Monitor.

China is home to almost two-thirds of world’s utility-scale solar and wind power in construction

Utility-scale solar and wind power capacity in construction, by country

What happened in the past year?

China added almost twice as much utility-scale solar and wind power capacity in 2023 than in any other year. By the first quarter of 2024, China’s total utility-scale solar and wind capacity reached 758 GW, though data from China Electricity Council put the total capacity, including distributed solar, at 1,120 GW.  Wind and solar now account for 37% of the total power capacity in the country, an 8% increase from 2022, and widely expected to surpass coal capacity, which is 39% of the total right now, in 2024.

Between March 2023 and March 2024, China installed more solar than it had in the previous three years combined, and more than the rest of the world combined for 2023. Solar capacity first surpassed wind in 2022, and the gap has grown significantly larger, thanks to the massive expansion of distributed solar. Nearly half of the distributed solar added in 2023 was installed on residential rooftops, largely driven by China’s “whole county solar” model. Distributed solar accounts for 41% of the total solar capacity and has experienced a higher growth rate than centralized solar since 2021. The growth is attributed to the advantages of lower investment costs, easy installation, and strong policy support, making it more popular in the market.

Newly installed wind also doubled in growth over the 12 months year on year. After a brief slowdown in 2022 due to the end of central government feed-in tariff subsidies, they bounced back in 2023. GEM’s Global Wind Power Tracker has documented a 51 GW wind capacity increase since 2023 — this growth itself exceeds the total operating capacity of any country, except the United States.

The combined capacity at pre-construction and announced stages for utility-scale solar power reaches 387 GW and 336 GW for wind. This includes the second and third waves of “mega wind & solar bases” with a combined capacity of approximately 503 GW, which will come online between 2025 and 2030. The first wave of “mega wind and solar bases” was announced in 2021 and spanned across 19 provinces. Most of the 97 GW in this first wave began operating in 2023 as scheduled, accounting for a third of China’s newly-operating capacity, pointing to a promising future for the second and third waves.

On the province level, GEM’s data reveals that the northwest and north provinces
continue dominating large-scale solar and wind installation. Meanwhile, distributed
solar is rapidly transforming the landscape in central and southern provinces.
According to the National Energy Administration, this trend has elevated Henan, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang, into the top five for solar capacity compared to the beginning of
2023.

The top six provinces for wind installation, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Hebei, Shanxi, Shandong, and Gansu account for 43% of the total in the country, according to GEM. Although the onshore wind’s distribution among provinces has seen minimal change, offshore wind is rapidly advancing, with Jiangsu continuing to lead the country. Fujian witnessed eleven 16 MW wind turbines, the largest capacity for a single wind turbine in the world, go into operation in the Pingtan offshore wind farm in 2023. The rapid growth offshore wind capacity in Guangdong, Zhejiang, Fujian and Hainan is expected to shift the provincial ranking, potentially replacing Jiangsu as the number one offshore wind province within the next five years.

What is China on track for?

Looking ahead, if all proposed utility scale solar and wind projects come online as
intended, China could easily reach 1,200 GW of installed wind and solar capacity by the
end of 2024, six years ahead of the pledge made by President Xi Jinping and one year
earlier than GEM’s forecast last year.

While China never signed the tripling renewables commitment at COP28, it did support
the pledge in the Sunnylands Statement between China and the U.S. government in
early 2023 to triple renewables energy capacity globally, and intends to sufficiently
accelerate renewable energy deployment in their respective economies through 2030
from 2020 levels. If wind and solar keep adding 200 GW annually as the authorities
planned for 2024, tripling renewable capacity by the end of 2030, based on the 2020
baseline of 934 GW, is well within reach even without any new hydropower additions.
Tripling on the 2022 baseline, as advocated by the International Renewable Energy
Agency (IRENA), can also be achieved if they are installed at a slightly higher growth
rate in 2023 as the authority announced. China should consider a more ambitious
renewable target in its Nationally Determined Contributions to the Paris Agreement
submission to the UN next year.

The sheer amount of prospective capacity under development in China provides
further evidence for the forecast that the power sector’s carbon emissions may peak
earlier than the promised timeline, which is “before 2030.” In fact, the May 2024 study
by Lauri Myllyvirta, a senior fellow at Asia Society Policy Institute and lead analyst at the
Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, even suggests that China’s overall CO2
emissions may have already peaked in 2023, citing that 90% of power demand
increases have been met by wind and solar generation, as well as the decline in
housing construction activity.

China’s energy officials, however, have expressed no intention to reach the peak earlier than 2030. Some argued that the power sector’s postponed peak would help other sectors’ electrification and avoid early sunk costs from the coal power industry.

What are the obstacles?

Despite progress in installations, the question of how China’s coal-centered grid
absorbs the unprecedented renewable surge and delivers the additional power to the
demand region remains a challenge. Although there is fast growth in power storage
capacity, China’s grid heavily relies on coal power to mitigate the intermittency of
renewables, casting a shadow on wind and solar’s achievements.

For example, in the plan for the second wave of mega wind and solar bases for the
period of the 14th Five Year Plan (2021-2025), 30% of the proposed capacity is actually
from coal power, including 28 GW of new coal, among which 10 GW are already under construction according to GEM’s Global Coal Plant Tracker. These coal projects are
happening under the name of intermittency mitigation for wind and solar.

Transmission of electricity presents another potential challenge: Utility-scale solar and
wind power are largely deployed in north and northwest regions and heavily rely on
Ultra High Voltage (UHV) transmission lines to deliver the power to the demand centers
in central, southern and east China. Currently, ten UHV transmission lines are under
construction or preparing to enter construction, but they are far from enough for a
continuous surge in renewable power. The lags in transmission line completion also
bottleneck the transmission of wind and solar power.

Due to the limitation of the transmission capacity and the intermittency mitigation ability, curtailment resurfaced after some years of calm. In March 2024, the curtailment rate of solar power exceeded 5% nationwide, an alarming line set by the government in 2018. Seven provinces and regions, most with large wind and solar capacity in the northwest and north, exceeded 10% of curtailment in February 2024, according to the National Renewable Energy Monitor Center (全国新能源消纳监测预警中心).

In the East China region, where distributed solar is widespread, the regional grid and
power distribution network are unprepared for the distributed solar boom. Since late
2023, the curtailment and temporary suspension of distributed solar applications has
risen significantly in several of the eastern provinces, which could constrain future
distributed solar installations if the ability to absorb solar power is not improved
quickly.

All told, 2023 saw unprecedented wind and solar growth in China. The unabated wave of construction guarantees that China will continue leading in wind and solar installation in the near future, far ahead of the rest of the world. However, China still needs to turn the massive renewables buildup into power generation, replace fossil fuels, and reach the “tipping point” so as to peak its carbon emissions as early as possible.

¹ GEM’s solar tracker includes large utility-scale solar farm phases with a capacity of 20 MW or greater and wind tracker is specifically focused on wind projects with a capacity threshold of 10 MW or greater.

² The solar figures under construction could be even higher, since GEM’s utility-scale solar data does not include small scale distributed solar, which has experienced a boom since 2021, and now accounts for 41% of the total solar capacity.

The post China continues to lead the world in wind and solar, with twice as much capacity under construction as the rest of the world combined appeared first on Global Energy Monitor.

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Boom and Bust is an annual survey of the global coal fleet by Global Energy Monitor and partners. The report analyzes key trends in coal power capacity and tracks various stages of capacity development including planned retirements. This provides key insights into the status of the global phaseout of coal power and evaluates progress towards the world’s climate targets and commitments. 

The data comes from GEM’s Global Coal Plant Tracker, an online database updated biannually that identifies and maps every known coal-fired generating unit and every new unit proposed since January 1, 2010 (30 MW and larger). 

Global Energy Monitor’s data serves as a vital international reference point used by organizations including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , International Energy Agency and the United Nations as well as global media outlets.

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Global operating coal capacity grew by 2% in 2023, with China driving two- thirds of new additions, and a small uptick was seen for the first time since 2019 in the rest of the world, according to Global Energy Monitor’s annual survey of the global coal fleet. 

Data in the Global Coal Plant Tracker show that 69.5 GW of coal power capacity was commissioned while 21.1 GW was retired in 2023, resulting in a net annual increase of 48.4 GW for the year and a global total capacity of 2,130 GW. This is the highest net increase in operating coal capacity since 2016.

The global operating coal fleet grew further, including rise outside China for first time since 2019 as retirements slowed

Annual change in coal-fired power capacity, in gigawatts (GW)

A surge in new coal plants coming online in China drove this increase — 47.4 GW, or roughly two- thirds of global additions — coupled with new capacity in Indonesia, India, Vietnam, Japan, Bangladesh, Pakistan, South Korea, Greece, and Zimbabwe. 

In total, 22.1 GW was commissioned and 17.4 GW was retired outside of China, resulting in a 4.7 GW net increase to the operating coal fleet.

Although new retirement plans and phaseout commitments continued to emerge, less coal capacity was retired in 2023 than in any other single year in more than a decade.

Lower retirements in the U.S. and Europe contributed to the coal capacity upswing. At 9.7 GW, the U.S. contributed nearly half of capacity retired in 2023, a drop from the 14.7 GW retired last year and its 21.7 GW record high in 2015. 

European Union member states and the United Kingdom represented roughly a quarter of retirements, with the U.K. (3.1 GW), Italy (0.6 GW), and Poland (0.5 GW) leading the region’s retirements for the year. 

But the accelerated growth in coal capacity may be short-lived, as low retirement rates in 2023 that contributed to coal’s rise are expected to pick up speed in the U.S. and Europe, offsetting the blip. Heightened capacity additions would also be tempered if China takes immediate action to ensure it meets its target of shutting down 30 gigawatts (GW) of coal capacity by 2025.

Coal’s fortunes this year are an anomaly, as all signs point to reversing course from this accelerated expansion. But countries that have coal plants to retire need to do so more quickly, and countries that have plans for new coal plants must make sure these are never built. Otherwise we can forget about meeting our goals in the Paris Agreement and reaping the benefits that a swift transition to clean energy will bring.

Flora Champenois, GEM Coal Program Director

The trajectory the global coal fleet takes from here depends to an extent on new construction starts — one of the key indicators of growth in the sector — which declined outside of China for the second year in a row and hit a record annual low since data collection began in 2015. In China, the exact opposite happened, with new construction starts increasing for the fourth year in a row and hitting an eight-year high. 

The report shows that construction started on less than 4 GW of new projects outside China in 2023, well below the 16 GW annual average between 2015 and 2022 for the same set of countries. Only seven countries, excluding China, appeared to start construction on new coal units last year: one plant each in India, Laos, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Russia, as well as three plants in Indonesia.

Moreover, no coal plant construction has started in Latin America since 2016, and no coal plant construction has started for member countries within the OECD, Europe, or the Middle East since 2019. In Nigeria, the start of foundation work at the mine-mouth Ugboba power station in 2023 was the first known construction start in Africa since 2019.

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Gap between China and rest of world widens further on key coal indicators

But China’s continued coal construction surge in 2023 stands in stark contrast to these global trends and offsets gains from dwindling coal capacity elsewhere. 

China’s 70.2 GW of new construction starts in 2023 represents 19 times more than the rest of the world’s 3.7 GW and is the country’s highest annual capacity breaking ground since 2015. 

The new construction starts in China were also nearly quadruple what they were in 2019 when it hit a nine-year annual low of entirely new builds.

In 2023, coal capacity in development globally — including projects in the announced, pre-permit, permitted, and in construction phases — increased from 550.6 GW to 578.2 GW, a 5% increase driven by China.

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Progress towards the last coal plant starting construction continues

The global coal landscape has been in transformation for almost a decade, marked by a collapse in the amount of planned coal power plants following the adoption of the Paris Agreement in late 2015. There has been a 68% reduction in global pre-construction capacity since then, and new construction starts are at their lowest outside of China since data collection began.

The past year has seen the OECD and EU continue to progress in their journey away from coal. The operating coal fleet and the pre-construction capacity in the OECD/EU have both declined in 2023, continuing the downward trend since the Paris Agreement.

The total pre-construction capacity is now at 7.1 GW, the lowest level since data collection began for the region. Only four countries, Australia, Japan, Türkiye, and the United States, are still considering coal projects. Türkiye has had seven planned projects put on hold in 2023, but it still accounts for 68% of the planned capacity in the OECD/EU and remains the only OECD country in the global top ten.

Climate concerns, unfavorable economics, and public opposition continue to close the door on many coal plant proposals — and close actual doors at some coal plants. In 2023, twelve new countries committed to No New Coal by becoming members of the Powering Past Coal Alliance (PPCA). 

As of January 2024, 101 countries have either formally committed to No New Coal or have abandoned any coal plans they had in the last decade. This shows a growing awareness of the need to shift to cleaner and more sustainable energy sources, even in places where coal has previously been a major part of the energy mix.

Almost all countries have reduced their announced, pre-permit, permitted, and construction coal capacity since 2015. Only six countries have increased coal power capacity under development since 2015, and the biggest increase did not exceed 3 GW. In contrast, coal power capacity under development in China, India, and Türkiye decreased by more than 300 GW, 200 GW, and 50 GW, respectively, between 2015 and 2023.

Which countries are still planning more coal?

China and India, the two largest coal consumers globally, continue to substantially influence the global coal narrative, collectively accounting for 82% of the total pre-construction capacity (announced, pre-permit, and permitted) worldwide. 

Outside of China and India, pre-construction capacity is currently at its lowest since data collection began, but growth in these two countries resulted in the total global capacity in pre-construction increasing by 6% in 2023.

This significant concentration highlights China’s increasing dominance in coal capacity development. 

China and ten other countries account for 95% of coal power capacity under consideration

Coal-fired power capacity in pre-construction stages (announced, pre-permit and permitted)

Along with China, ten other countries — India, Bangladesh, Zimbabwe, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Laos, Türkiye, Russia, Pakistan, and Vietnam — collectively account for 95% of this capacity. India accounts for nearly half of the planned capacity within these ten countries. 

The remaining 5% is distributed among 21 countries, eleven of which have only one project and are on the brink of achieving the “no new coal” milestone.

Thankfully, various countries are making clear that shutting coal down is possible, and most of the world is closing in on “no new coal.” Of 82 countries with coal power, 47 have reduced or kept operating capacity flat since the 2015 Paris Agreement.

Austria, Belgium, Sweden, Portugal, Peru, and the United Arab Emirates have retired or converted their last operating coal plants, while Slovakia, the U.K., and potentially others are projected to join them in 2024.

But despite countries where coal power capacity decreased or stayed flat outnumbering those that have increased it, nearly twice as much coal power capacity has been added globally than retired since Paris. 

The number of new coal power plants coming online has outpaced plant closures over the past eight years, with the world’s coal power capacity actually rising 11% since 2015. 

The majority of the increase has come from China, where overall capacity is 260 GW higher than it was in 2015. Other countries like India, Indonesia, Vietnam, South Korea and Japan have also recorded notable increases to their operating coal capacity.

Most coal capacity still lacks a coal closure commitment 

In order to meet the 2015 Paris Agreement goals and put the world on a pathway to no more than 1.5°C of global warming, reducing the use of coal for power generation is the single most important source of emissions reductions. 

To align with that goal, modeling by the International Energy Agency and others finds that OECD countries should eliminate coal power by 2030 and the rest of the world by 2040.

Countries must ramp up phaseout commitments, as well as ensure announcements are translated into plant-by-plant retirement plans. 

Just 15% (317 GW) of the global operating capacity has a commitment to retire in line with these commitments. Another 10% (210 GW) has a closure commitment that needs to be sped up to keep up with the world’s climate goals. 

And although the vast majority of operating global coal capacity is now captured by some type of national net zero or other pledge, 75% (1,626 GW) still lacks a coal closure commitment.

Most coal power capacity needs a closure commitment

Coal-fired power capacity by phaseout status, excluding net zero commitments

Phasing out operating coal power by 2040 would require an average of 126 GW of retirements per year for the next 17 years, the equivalent of about two coal plants per week. Accounting for coal plants under construction and in pre-construction (578 GW) would require even steeper cuts.

Boom and Bust Coal 2024 is a joint effort by Global Energy Monitor, Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), E3G, Reclaim Finance, Sierra Club, Solutions for Our Climate, Kiko Network, Climate Action Network (CAN) Europe, Bangladesh Working Group on External Debt (BWGED), Coastal Livelihood and Environmental Action Network (CLEAN), Waterkeepers Bangladesh, Dhoritri Rokhhay Amra (DHORA), Trend Asia, Alliance for Climate Justice and Clean Energy, Chile Sustentable, POLEN Transiciones Justas, Iniciativa Climática de México, and Arayara. Beyond Fossil Fuels also joined the Turkish version of the report.

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The Global Solar and Wind Power Trackers identify prospective projects that have been announced or are in the pre-construction and construction phases totalling approximately 379 GW of large utility-scale solar and 371 GW of wind capacity, which is roughly equal to China’s current installed operating capacity.

Nearly all of this prospective capacity is part of the government’s 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025) and enough to increase the global wind fleet by nearly half and large utility-scale solar installations by over 85%. This amount of prospective solar capacity is triple that of the United States, and accompanied by China’s significant share of approximately one-fifth of the global prospective wind capacity.

The Global Solar and Wind Power Trackers also show:

• China’s operating large utility-scale solar capacity has reached 228 GW – more than the rest of the world combined.
• China’s combined onshore and offshore wind capacity has doubled from what it was in 2017 and now surpasses 310 GW.
• Operating offshore wind capacity has reached 31.4 GW, and accounts for approximately 10% of China’s total wind capacity and exceeds the operating offshore capacity of all of Europe.

This new data provides unrivaled granularity about China’s jaw-dropping surge in solar and wind capacity. As we closely monitor the implementation of prospective projects, this detailed information becomes indispensable in navigating the country’s energy landscape.

Dorothy Mei, Project Manager at Global Energy Monitor

China is making strides, but with coal still holding sway as the dominant power source, the country needs bolder advancements in energy storage and green technologies for a secure energy future.

Martin Weil, Researcher at Global Energy Monitor

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But the global pace of retirements needs to move four and half times faster in order to put the world on track to phasing out coal power by 2040, as required to meet the goals of the Paris climate agreement. To stay on track, all existing coal plants must be retired by 2030 in the world’s richest countries, and by 2040 everywhere. 

Despite a global gas crunch and price shocks, coal power capacity retirements reached 26 gigawatts (GW) in 2022, and another 25 GW received an announced close-by date of 2030. The amount of planned coal-fired capacity in developing countries, excluding China, fell by 23 GW. However, China’s planned capacity increased by 126 GW, far offsetting the changes in the rest of the world.

The report follows the latest warnings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that existing fossil fuel infrastructure will consume the world’s remaining carbon budget needed to limit planetary warning to 1.5°Celsius, and as the United Nations unveiled an “Accelerated Agenda” renewing the marching order to wind down coal power globally.

While newly proposed coal power capacity has declined significantly, the world is not retiring existing coal plants fast enough. Phasing out coal power by 2040 would require an average of 117 GW of retirements per year, or four and a half times the capacity retired last year. An average of 60 GW must come offline in OECD countries each year to meet their 2030 coal phaseout deadline, and for non-OECD countries, 91 GW each year for their 2040 deadline. Accounting for coal plants under construction and in consideration (537 GW) would require even steeper cuts.

Key findings:

• Globally, the operating coal fleet grew by 19.5 GW, or less than 1%, in 2022. More than half (59%) of the 45.5 GW of newly commissioned capacity was in China, with 14 countries in total adding new coal power. Outside China, the global coal fleet continued to shrink, although at a slower rate than in previous years.
• Total coal power capacity under development – including pre-construction and construction stages – has remained relatively level since 2019 after a significant collapse from highs in 2014. The figure hit a record low of 479 GW in 2021, but inched back up to 537 GW in 2022, a 12% one-year increase led by China.
• After the European Union retired a record high of 14.6 GW of coal capacity in 2021, the gas crisis and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine prompted a slowdown in coal retirements, with only 2.2 GW retired in the last year. Temporary restarts and extensions are generally expected to wind down in the next few years, and what appeared to be a spike in coal capacity added only 1% to total EU coal generation in 2022.
• The U.S. led coal retirements with 13.5 GW retired in 2022. To meet national energy and climate goals, continued momentum away from coal needs to accelerate.
• India sent mixed signals regarding its future coal use. The country has 28.5 GW of coal power capacity planned, up 2.6 GW in 2022, and 32 GW of coal power capacity under construction.

“The more new projects come online, the steeper the cuts and commitments need to be in the future. At this rate, the transition away from existing and new coal isn’t happening fast enough to avoid climate chaos.”

Flora Champenois, lead author and project manager for the Global Coal Plant Tracker

In addition to Global Energy Monitor, the report’s co-authors are the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, E3G, Reclaim Finance, Sierra Club, Solutions for Our Climate, Kiko Network, Climate Action Network Europe, Bangladesh Poribesh Andolon, Waterkeepers Bangladesh, Alliance for Climate Justice and Clean Energy, and Chile Sustentable.

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• Coal power plant permitting accelerated in the first six months of 2022, demonstrating increased government support for expansion. However, announcements of new projects, construction initiations and completions slowed down, indicating a waning appetite among power generators. Thermal power generation has been steeply loss making since early 2021.
• Steel companies have accelerated investments in new electric arc furnace capacity which will help the sector absorb more scrap steel and support peaking CO2 emissions from steelmaking.
• Investments in wind and solar power have expanded rapidly, approaching the market size needed to peak and reduce CO2 emissions.
• Investments in both new coal-fired power plants and in coal-based ironmaking capacity (blast furnaces) continue at a high level that is not aligned with Chinaʼs carbon goals. The most likely outcome is the build-up of excess coal-based capacity, and falling utilisation, rather than increased emissions.
  • 15 gigawatts (GW) of new coal-fired power capacity was permitted in the first half of 2022, an uptick compared with last year but less than in 2020.
  • 30 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) of new blast furnace capacity was announced in the first half of 2022, the largest amount for the first half-year since 2019.
• New investments in coal-based power and steelmaking capacity in the first six months of 2022 will result in $8.5 billion (CNY 82 billion) and $15-22 billion (CNY 100-150 billion) in stranded capacity, respectively, if Chinaʼs low-carbon transition is successful. The presence of large amounts of newly built coal-based capacity complicates the transition economically and politically.

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GEM’s “Boom and Bust Coal 2022” report finds that after rising in 2020 for the first time since 2015, total coal power capacity under development declined 13% last year, from 525 gigawatts (GW) to 457 GW, a record low. 34 countries have new coal plants under consideration, down from 41 countries in January 2021.

But the world still has more than 2,400 coal-fired power plants operating in 79 countries, for a total of nearly 2,100 GW of capacity. An additional 176 GW of coal capacity is under construction at more than 189 plants, and 280 GW is in pre-construction at 296 plants. In 2021, the operating coal fleet grew by a net 18.2 GW, a post-Covid rebound in a year that saw a slowdown in coal plant retirements.

The directive for a fighting chance at a livable climate is clear – stop building new coal plants and retire existing ones in the developed world by 2030, and the rest of the world soon after. Progress must happen faster to meet the clear demands of climate science for a radical coal phase down within this decade.

The Boom and Bust Coal 2022 report also finds:

• Japan, South Korea, and China all pledged to end public support for new international coal plants, followed by a commitment from all G20 countries ahead of COP26. With these pledges, there is essentially no significant international public financier remaining for new coal plants. 
• In 2021, the amount of U.S. coal capacity that retired declined for the second consecutive year, from 16.1 GW in 2019, to 11.6 GW in 2020, to an estimated 6.4 GW to 9 GW in 2021. To meet national energy and climate goals, continued momentum away from coal needs to accelerate.
• The European Union’s 27 member states retired a record 12.9 GW in 2021, with the most retirements in Germany (5.8 GW), Spain (1.7 GW), and Portugal (1.9 GW). Portugal became coal free in November 2021, nine years before its targeted 2030 phase-out date.

“The coal plant pipeline is shrinking, but there is simply no carbon budget left to be building new coal plants. We need to stop, now.“

Flora Champenois, lead author

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For the fourth year in a row, most leading indicators of coal power capacity growth declined in 2019, including construction starts, amount of capacity permitted for construction, and amount of capacity in pre-permit development, according to the Global Coal Plant Tracker.

With climate concerns dominating headlines, builders of new coal plants face an increasingly adverse business environment, including widening restrictions by over 126 globally significant banks and insurers, as well as commitments to phase out coal and accelerate a transition to clean power by 33 national and 27 subnational governments.

Despite the decline in coal plant development, the coal fleet grew in 2019 by a greater amount than in 2018. The uptick was primarily due to an increase in plants going into operation in China, the result of a permitting binge from 2014 to 2016. Outside of China, the global coal fleet overall shrank for the second year in a row as retirements exceeded commissioning. Globally, the amount of power generated from coal in 2019 declined by 3% compared to 2018, with global coal plants now operating at an average 51% of their available operating hours, a record low.

In China, the amount of capacity in pre-construction development increased for the first time since the central government began placing restrictions on new coal plant proposals and permits in 2016. The increase comes as the power industry in China continues to advocate for a capacity target in the upcoming five-year plan that would make room for up to 200 new coal-fired generating units by 2025. Meanwhile, coal power capacity additions in China continue to exceed demand, with 40% of the coal power capacity commissioned in 2019 already relegated to emergency back-up status that limits its usage, according to an analysis by Global Energy Monitor.

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