Key points
- China is developing approximately 1,280 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) of coal mine capacity, nearly half of the proposed capacity globally and more than double India's planned capacity for million tonne scale coal mines.
- Nearly 80% (1,022 Mtpa) of these mine proposals are greenfield developments, indicating a strong industry push to establish new operations.
- China’s operating large-scale coal mines with a capacity of 1 Mtpa or more total 3,881 million tonnes (Mt) annually, nearly half the global total from similar large-scale mines and roughly double the combined output of India, Indonesia, and Australia — the world's next three biggest coal producers.
- China's operating coal mines emit 52,726 million cubic meters (MCM) of methane annually, equivalent to roughly 70% of the global total for coal mine methane emissions from operating mines of similar size.
Global coal output is on the rise again after a short downturn in 2020, with China now supplying more than half the world’s total and responsible for nearly half of all new proposals, posing a significant threat to the country’s dual-carbon goals, according to a new report from Global Energy Monitor.
Data in the Global Coal Mine Tracker show that China has a proposed capacity of 1,155 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa), primarily from projects with a designed capacity of at least 1 Mtpa, representing nearly double Australia’s total coal production from similarly sized mines.
GEM data show that during the first three years of the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021–2025), approximately 614 million tonnes of coal were in different stages of development, more than the annual output of Australia.
When combined with previously proposed projects and a lowered capacity threshold to 0.6 Mtpa, China is now developing a total of 1,280 Mtpa of coal capacity across fourteen provinces, more than half the global pipeline. If materialized, and without robust mitigation measures, this massive expansion will significantly increase methane emissions.
GEM revealed that China's operating coal mines emit a staggering 52,726 MCM of methane annually, equivalent to approximately 35 Mt of methane released each year. This figure is nearly twice the emissions estimated by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in their Global Methane Tracker, which reported that China’s coal mining sector was responsible for about 20 Mt of methane emissions in 2023.
The significance of China’s coal mine emissions becomes even more apparent when compared to emissions from coal mines of similar size in other coal-producing countries. China’s operating coal mine methane emissions account for roughly 70% of the global total for coal mine methane emissions from operating mines of similar size.
With substantial coal mine expansion planned, China is poised to become an even larger emitter of global coal mine methane emissions. If all proposed projects materialize, another 14,956 MCM (10 Mt) of methane will be emitted annually, potentially accounting for nearly 75% of projected methane releases from proposed mines worldwide.
The surge in new production starkly contrasts with China's dual carbon neutrality targets. The potential for increased methane emissions from these new mines, coupled with the challenge of abandoned coal mine methane as China accelerates the closure of small-scale and inefficient operations, poses significant risks to China's climate goals.
China's coal industry is at a pivotal juncture. While the government is after energy security with a heavy reliance on coal, the nation is also committed to expanding renewable energy. Recent surges in coal production, prompted by supply concerns, may be curtailed by the nation's ongoing efforts to optimize the energy mix and reduce coal demand through a structural shift towards renewable energy sources.
Dorothy Mei, Project Manager for the Global Coal Mine Tracker
